I've been surprised and highly impressed with Michigan's ability to reload.
Here is 247's roster talent composite:
https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
I don't go as in-depth as @ELA , but when I assess teams preseason I more-or-less do this mental calculation:
- Last year's final ranking
- Adjust for losses to transfer/graduation/NFL relative to average
- Adjust for available talent to replace losses
- Adjust for specific losses
Step 3 is basically the team talent composite from above. I expect Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State to "reload" rather than "rebuild" because they have boatloads of talent on campus. Michigan, however, is all the way down at #14 so I expect that to be more of a struggle for them.
When Michigan beat Ohio State last year I was able to console myself with some relevant facts:
- 2021 was Michigan's best team in a generation, and
- 2021 Michigan was a highly experienced team, and
- 2021 was, by recent standards, somewhat of an off-year for Ohio State, and
- 2021 Ohio State was a very young team
Based on the above, I made the reasonable assumptions that Michigan would take a hit with more than average turnover and that both tOSU and Michigan would regress toward their respective means and since Ohio State's recent (pre 2021) mean was a LOT better than Michigan's, I thought/hoped that tOSU would be substantially better than Michigan in 2022.
At this point in the season I no longer feel confident about that. I still had tOSU at #1 in our Power Rankings last week because I do still think that they look better but there is not a substantial gap. It is basically a coin-flip difference.
Michigan's apparent ability to "reload" has surprised me.
I'd take those talent composite rankings with a high grain of salt. good to look at- and they provide a decent measuring stick- but not nearly the end all be all. Maybe we all should have seen them being better coming.
Michigan hasn't had OL & DL coaching this good in a looooong time. And that's where the game is won and lost. They are better up front on both lines of scrimmage. The transfer Oluwatimi might be the best center in all of college football- and he was a 2* recruit. He is
SIGNIFICANTLY better their starting center Andrew Vastardis last year. They returned their veteran LT Hayes and their LG and RG- who were both
really good All-Conference caliber guards in their
first year starting last year.
They got their #1 WR back in Ronnie Bell- who missed all of last year- they upgraded at QB in McCarthy (who was an OMG 5 STARZ in that composite by the way) - and no offense to Haskins but Corum and Edwards are both more talented and bring more to the table to an offense. Haskins is slowwwwwwww. Corum and Edwards are both home run hitters- and Edwards ability as a route runner and pass catcher is downright freakish for a RB.
I figured they'd miss Hutchinson A LOT but they are actually better and deeper in the front 7 this year. And they are better in the middle at DT. Talking about this "composite team ranking" - well Eyabi Okie was an
OMG 5 STARZ and Derrick Moore was a top 50 player in the nation and Under Amour All-American Game MVP, and Braiden McGregor was a top 100 player in the nation - and those 3 dudes are rotational players/
back-ups at EDGE. Their #3 CB - Will Johnson was an OMG 5 STARZ as well- and he's played a lot and looked really good.