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Topic: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?

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Cincydawg

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #70 on: October 24, 2022, 01:58:51 PM »
I agree, but I think it is possible Michigan looks shiny because of schedule.  That was of course an impressive win over PSU.  Their second most impressive win is ... Maryland?  Of course, I can similarly pick apart anyone's schedule at this point.

We could still learn that one or two of the current top ten teams end up fading pretty quickly.

FearlessF

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #71 on: October 24, 2022, 02:10:28 PM »
I take this back. Sounds like divisions will stay one more year before UCLA and USC come.

If that's the case, OSU will play in Madison.

And it will be in November so it can't be a night game...
we play a few night games in November in Lincoln, but we're down south where's it's warm

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #72 on: October 24, 2022, 02:12:10 PM »
I agree, but I think it is possible Michigan looks shiny because of schedule.  That was of course an impressive win over PSU.  Their second most impressive win is ... Maryland?
Per Sagrin, it is Iowa.

Michigan's opponents ranked by Sagrin:
  • 14 PSU, beat by 24
  • 42 Iowa, beat by 13
  • 46 Maryland, beat by 7
  • 83 Indiana, beat by 21
  • 140 CoSy, beat by 44
  • 145 UCONN, beat by 59
  • 158 Hawaii, beat by 46

I always assert that flukes happen because they do. Pick any team and year and I'll show you a game where their performance was way off from their normal for the year.

That does leave open the possibility that Michigan's blowout over PSU was simply a fluke and if you take that away you are left with . . . not much.

That said, you can do that with about any team to "prove" whatever you want to "prove".


FearlessF

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #73 on: October 24, 2022, 02:14:53 PM »
that's what message boards are for!
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GopherRock

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #74 on: October 24, 2022, 02:18:59 PM »
I take this back. Sounds like divisions will stay one more year before UCLA and USC come.

If that's the case, OSU will play in Madison.

And it will be in November so it can't be a night game...
Where are you seeing conference schedules for 2023?

Also, the no-night-game-in-November meme has been dead since at least 2016. The Gophers played a true night game in Lincoln that year in November, and IIRC Michigan at Iowa in 2018 was a night game.

FearlessF

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #75 on: October 24, 2022, 02:20:55 PM »
I enjoyed that Gopher game in Lincoln

also had an enjoyable night game vs Sparty in November
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847badgerfan

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #76 on: October 24, 2022, 02:58:41 PM »
Where are you seeing conference schedules for 2023?

Also, the no-night-game-in-November meme has been dead since at least 2016. The Gophers played a true night game in Lincoln that year in November, and IIRC Michigan at Iowa in 2018 was a night game.
Don't have them yet, but if the wonks in Chicago do the right thing, OSU will play in Madison next year.

As for the night games, that's only for the first week (or two for certain schools like Maryland and UNL as I understand it).
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FearlessF

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #77 on: October 24, 2022, 03:05:30 PM »
UNL loves night games

good for recruiting

morning games suck
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LetsGoPeay

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #78 on: October 24, 2022, 03:27:33 PM »
I've learned that IU is worse than I imagined they would be. My ceiling for them was 5-7 and that included a semi-upset of someone. We got that with the Illinois game but didn't really know it at the time. They won't win another game this year making Tom Allen 5-19 in the last two years with 1 conference win. We are about to have the portal taketh away in a major way. Allen won't be going anywhere for at least one year and most likely two. This ship is sinking quickly and will soon be back to Gerry DiNardo type levels. IU hasn't gotten into the NIL game for football and given the historic apathy with which the administration has regarded the program, and continues to do so, there isn't a lot of hope on the horizon. 

847badgerfan

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #79 on: October 24, 2022, 04:37:58 PM »
I've learned that IU is worse than I imagined they would be. My ceiling for them was 5-7 and that included a semi-upset of someone. We got that with the Illinois game but didn't really know it at the time. They won't win another game this year making Tom Allen 5-19 in the last two years with 1 conference win. We are about to have the portal taketh away in a major way. Allen won't be going anywhere for at least one year and most likely two. This ship is sinking quickly and will soon be back to Gerry DiNardo type levels. IU hasn't gotten into the NIL game for football and given the historic apathy with which the administration has regarded the program, and continues to do so, there isn't a lot of hope on the horizon.
How has IU gone from being so promising to so bleak in such a short amount of time? I don't get it.
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Mdot21

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #80 on: October 24, 2022, 05:03:43 PM »
Per Sagrin, it is Iowa.

Michigan's opponents ranked by Sagrin:
  • 14 PSU, beat by 24
  • 42 Iowa, beat by 13
  • 46 Maryland, beat by 7
  • 83 Indiana, beat by 21
  • 140 CoSy, beat by 44
  • 145 UCONN, beat by 59
  • 158 Hawaii, beat by 46

I always assert that flukes happen because they do. Pick any team and year and I'll show you a game where their performance was way off from their normal for the year.

That does leave open the possibility that Michigan's blowout over PSU was simply a fluke and if you take that away you are left with . . . not much.

That said, you can do that with about any team to "prove" whatever you want to "prove".
RE: Iowa and Maryland....Michigan was up 20 on the road in Kinnick when Iowa scored a garbage time TD with about 8 seconds left in the game to make that score look closer than it actually was. Michigan was in prevent and playing back-ups- that last TD was against the 2nd team defense. Jeem isn't like Day and keeping in his 1st team up 40 in the 4th QTR trying to run up the score and get his guys the hypseman or look secksi for the polls. And Maryland scored their last TD down 15 with 43 seconds left in the game. Final scores and stats can be deceiving. Neither one of those games were ever in jeopardy and don't think they ever trailed at one point in any of those games. In fact I think @Indiana and Penn State at home were the only games all year where they trailed for any portions of any games.

Mdot21

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #81 on: October 24, 2022, 05:06:20 PM »
I agree, but I think it is possible Michigan looks shiny because of schedule.  That was of course an impressive win over PSU.  Their second most impressive win is ... Maryland?  Of course, I can similarly pick apart anyone's schedule at this point.

We could still learn that one or two of the current top ten teams end up fading pretty quickly.
could say the same thing about Georgia and Tennessee. Georgia's win in Week 0 vs Oregon was insanely impressive- and then since then been whole lot of meh. Georgia nearly lost to freaking Missouri man. Ditto Tennessee. They beat Bama and....who? Took them double OT to beat an ass Pitt team that was playing it's back-up QB. 

Cincydawg

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #82 on: October 24, 2022, 05:15:45 PM »
" Of course, I can similarly pick apart anyone's schedule at this point."

As I noted.

Mdot21

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Re: What are a few things you've learned thus far in the season?
« Reply #83 on: October 24, 2022, 05:18:32 PM »
I've been surprised and highly impressed with Michigan's ability to reload.

Here is 247's roster talent composite:
https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

I don't go as in-depth as @ELA , but when I assess teams preseason I more-or-less do this mental calculation:

  • Last year's final ranking
  • Adjust for losses to transfer/graduation/NFL relative to average
  • Adjust for available talent to replace losses
  • Adjust for specific losses


Step 3 is basically the team talent composite from above. I expect Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State to "reload" rather than "rebuild" because they have boatloads of talent on campus. Michigan, however, is all the way down at #14 so I expect that to be more of a struggle for them.

When Michigan beat Ohio State last year I was able to console myself with some relevant facts:

  • 2021 was Michigan's best team in a generation, and
  • 2021 Michigan was a highly experienced team, and
  • 2021 was, by recent standards, somewhat of an off-year for Ohio State, and
  • 2021 Ohio State was a very young team

Based on the above, I made the reasonable assumptions that Michigan would take a hit with more than average turnover and that both tOSU and Michigan would regress toward their respective means and since Ohio State's recent (pre 2021) mean was a LOT better than Michigan's, I thought/hoped that tOSU would be substantially better than Michigan in 2022.

At this point in the season I no longer feel confident about that. I still had tOSU at #1 in our Power Rankings last week because I do still think that they look better but there is not a substantial gap. It is basically a coin-flip difference.


Michigan's apparent ability to "reload" has surprised me.
I'd take those talent composite rankings with a high grain of salt. good to look at- and they provide a decent measuring stick- but not nearly the end all be all. Maybe we all should have seen them being better coming. 

Michigan hasn't had OL & DL coaching this good in a looooong time. And that's where the game is won and lost. They are better up front on both lines of scrimmage. The transfer Oluwatimi might be the best center in all of college football- and he was a 2* recruit. He is SIGNIFICANTLY better their starting center Andrew Vastardis last year. They returned their veteran LT Hayes and their LG and RG- who were both really good All-Conference caliber guards in their first year starting last year.

They got their #1 WR back in Ronnie Bell- who missed all of last year- they upgraded at QB in McCarthy (who was an OMG 5 STARZ in that composite by the way) - and no offense to Haskins but Corum and Edwards are both more talented and bring more to the table to an offense. Haskins is slowwwwwwww. Corum and Edwards are both home run hitters- and Edwards ability as a route runner and pass catcher is downright freakish for a RB.

I figured they'd miss Hutchinson A LOT but they are actually better and deeper in the front 7 this year. And they are better in the middle at DT. Talking about this "composite team ranking" - well Eyabi Okie was an OMG 5 STARZ and Derrick Moore was a top 50 player in the nation and Under Amour All-American Game MVP, and Braiden McGregor was a top 100 player in the nation - and those 3 dudes are rotational players/back-ups at EDGE. Their #3 CB - Will Johnson was an OMG 5 STARZ as well- and he's played a lot and looked really good. 

 

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