I've been surprised and highly impressed with Michigan's ability to reload.
Here is 247's roster talent composite:
https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/I don't go as in-depth as
@ELA , but when I assess teams preseason I more-or-less do this mental calculation:
- Last year's final ranking
- Adjust for losses to transfer/graduation/NFL relative to average
- Adjust for available talent to replace losses
- Adjust for specific losses
Step 3 is basically the team talent composite from above. I expect Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State to "reload" rather than "rebuild" because they have boatloads of talent on campus. Michigan, however, is all the way down at #14 so I expect that to be more of a struggle for them.
When Michigan beat Ohio State last year I was able to console myself with some relevant facts:
- 2021 was Michigan's best team in a generation, and
- 2021 Michigan was a highly experienced team, and
- 2021 was, by recent standards, somewhat of an off-year for Ohio State, and
- 2021 Ohio State was a very young team
Based on the above, I made the reasonable assumptions that Michigan would take a hit with more than average turnover and that both tOSU and Michigan would regress toward their respective means and since Ohio State's recent (pre 2021) mean was a LOT better than Michigan's, I thought/hoped that tOSU would be substantially better than Michigan in 2022.
At this point in the season I no longer feel confident about that. I still had tOSU at #1 in our Power Rankings last week because I do still think that they look better but there is not a substantial gap. It is basically a coin-flip difference.
Michigan's apparent ability to "reload" has surprised me.
