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Topic: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2017, 11:52:54 AM »
There are only 10 voters but here are the rankings:
Team/Poster AVG Rank StdDev BestWorstRange
PSU          1.10 1          0.32 121
tOSU          2.30 2          0.82 143
UW          2.70 3          0.48 231
MSU          3.90 4          0.32 341
M          5.60 5          0.97 572
NU          6.10 6          0.99 583
Iowa          7.40 7          1.84 6126
IU          7.40 8          0.97 693
UNL        10.20 10          0.79 9112
MD        10.50 9          1.58 8135
PU        10.60 11          1.78 8135
MN        11.00 12          1.70 9134
RU        12.20 13          0.79 11132
ILL        14.00 14               -   14140

And here is the schedule/performance chart:
Rank.1234567891011121314.Rank
.TeamPSUtOSUUWMSUMNUIowaIUUNLMDPUMNRUILLTeam.
1PSUn/a10/28, Hmiss11/4, HL by 29, AL by 24, HL by 2, HL by 31, A11/18, A11/25, Hmissmiss11/11, AmissPSU1
2tOSU10/28, An/amiss11/11, A11/25, Hmiss11/4, HL by 28, HL by 42, HL by 48, AmissmissL by 56, H11/18, AtOSU2
3UWmissmissn/amiss11/18, AL by 9, A11/11, A11/4, HL by 21, HL by 25, AL by 8, A11/25, Hmiss10/28, HUW3
4MSU11/4, A11/11, Hmissn/aL by 4, H10/28, HL by 7, AL by 8, Amiss11/18, AmissL by 3, H11/25, HmissMSU4
5MW by 29, H11/25, A11/18, HW by 4, An/amissmissL in OT, Hmiss11/11, HL by 18, H11/4, A10/28, AmissM5
6NUW by 24, AmissW by 9, H10/28, Amissn/aL in OT, Amiss11/4, HL by 16, H11/11, A11/18, Amiss11/25, HNU6
7IowaW by 2, A11/4, A11/11, HW by 7, HmissW in OT, Hn/amiss11/24, Hmiss11/18, A10/28, AmissL by 29, AIowa7
8IUW by 31, HW by 28, A11/4, AW by 8, HW in OT, Amissmissn/amiss10/28, H11/25, Hmiss11/18, A11/11, HIU8
9UNL11/18, HW by 42, AW by 21, Amissmiss11/4, A11/24, Amissn/amiss10/28, H11/11, HL by 10, AL by 22, HUNL9
10MD11/25, AW by 48, HW by 25, H11/18, H11/11, AW by 16, Amiss10/28, Amissn/amissL by 7, H11/4, HmissMD10
11PUmissmissW by 8, HmissW by 18, A11/11, H11/18, H11/25, A10/28, Amissn/aL by 14, AW by 2, H11/4, APU11
12MNmissmiss11/25, AW by 3, A11/4, H11/18, H10/28, Hmiss11/11, AW by 7, AW by 14, Hn/amissL by 7, AMN12
13RU11/11, HW by 56, Amiss11/25, A10/28, Hmissmiss11/18, HW by 10, H11/4, HL by 2, Amissn/aL by 11, HRU13
14ILLmiss11/18, H10/28, Amissmiss11/25, AW by 29, H11/11, AW by 22, Amiss11/4, HW by 7, HW by 11, An/aILL14
.TeamPSUtOSUUWMSUMNUIowaIUUNLMDPUMNRUILLTeam.
Rank.1234567891011121314.Rank
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ELA

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2017, 12:06:37 PM »
Last week in parenthesis

1. PENN STATE (2) - back up top in a BIG way, tough for me to make a case for anyone else to be #1 right now
2. WISCONSIN (1) - with Michigan sinking and the West plummeting, that schedule keeps looking easier and easier
3. OHIO STATE (3) - time to prove they put Oklahoma behind them, and can do more than pound inferior teams
4. MICHIGAN STATE (4) - maybe the easiest team to rank right now, and I think the gap between them and #3 is WIDE
5. MICHIGAN (5) - who behind them has made ANY sort of case for top 5?
6. INDIANA (8) - from a hard luck 0-3 to a hard luck 0-4
7. NORTHWESTERN (9) - maybe starting to turn a corner?  Big chance to prove it this weekend
8. IOWA (6) - on the upside, that close Iowa State win is looking a lot better
9. PURDUE (7) - put #9-13 in a hat, and you'd be hard pressed to argue against it, so I just kept them in the same order
10. MARYLAND (10) - see above
11. MINNESOTA (11) - see above
12. NEBRASKA (12) - see above
13. RUTGERS (13) - see above
14. ILLINOIS (14) - only slot in the bottom 6 I feel mildly confident in
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2017, 12:25:26 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 24, 2017, 11:44:50 AM


No matter what happens with tOSU/PSU, the only thing comparable between Ohio State and Wisconsin is the crap and Ohio State has handled their crap better than Wisconsin.  I could see that happening.  As I said upthread, I am not yet confident in Ohio State's offense.  However, I haven't yet seen anything out of Wisconsin to make me think they are any better.  Even with two blowout losses, Ohio State still would look better to me simply because Wisconsin's schedule has been so bad.  



see, even if the Badgers haven't done anything impressive vs their less than impressive schedule, the lack of losses may cause me to put the Badgers at #2
hopefully, the Badgers don't play down to Illinois
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #31 on: October 24, 2017, 01:05:54 PM »
FWIW:
ELA's vote moves IU up to #7 and Iowa down to #8.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #32 on: October 24, 2017, 02:21:58 PM »
Hawks vs Hoosiers would be a good matchup

too bad it won't happen this season
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ELA

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2017, 11:23:05 AM »
Week 8 composite computer rankings (101 computers - last week in parentheses)

1. Alabama (1)
2. PENN STATE (2)
3. Georgia (3)
4. Notre Dame (9)
5. Clemson (5)
6. TCU (4)
7. OHIO STATE (6)
8. WISCONSIN (8)
9. Miami (7)
10. Central Florida (11)
11. Oklahoma State (12)
12. Washington (13)
13. Oklahoma (15)
14. Virginia Tech (19)
15. NC State (17)
16. MICHIGAN STATE (18)
17. Washington State (20)
18. USC (10)
19. Stanford (16)
20. Auburn (21)
21. MICHIGAN (14)
22. South Florida (23)
23. Mississippi State (-)
24. LSU (-)
25. Iowa State (-)

29. Iowa (22)
39. Northwestern (54)
55. Indiana (47)
60. Purdue (49)
62. Minnesota (63)
63. Maryland (62)
70. Nebraska (73)
85. Rutgers (100)
106. Illinois (105)
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2017, 11:34:43 AM »
Quote from: ELA on October 26, 2017, 11:23:05 AM
Week 8 composite computer rankings (101 computers - last week in parentheses)

2. PENN STATE (2)
7. OHIO STATE (6)
8. WISCONSIN (8)
16. MICHIGAN STATE (18)
21. MICHIGAN (14)
29. Iowa (22)
39. Northwestern (54)
55. Indiana (47)
60. Purdue (49)
62. Minnesota (63)
63. Maryland (62)
70. Nebraska (73)
85. Rutgers (100)
106. Illinois (105)
This largely matches our rankings.  There are only a few exceptions:
  • We have NU/IA as #6/7, this has those reversed.  
  • We have PU at #11, this has them at #9
  • We have MN at #12, this has them at #10
  • We have MD at #10, this has them at #11
  • We have UNL at #9, this has them at #12
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MaximumSam

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2017, 11:43:03 AM »
S+P

1. Ohio state (1)
2. Penn State (3)
3. Wisconsin (7)
4. Michigan State (20)
5. Michigan (27)
6. Iowa (45)
7. Purdue (48)
8. Indiana (52)
9. Minnesota (62)
10. Northwestern (69)
11. Nebraska (73)
12. Rutgers (82)
13. Maryland (93)
14. Illinois (106)
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rolltidefan

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2017, 12:43:50 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 22, 2017, 10:12:15 AM
Wisconsin - We may not find out until December

if you find out before december, the answer is no.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2017, 03:03:47 PM »
Can Wisconsin even overcome their soft schedule? 

BYU was their "big" non-Conference game. 

The Cougs are 1-7, with the lone win a 14 point victory over winless Portland State (FCS-Big Sky Conference). 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2017, 05:00:20 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 26, 2017, 03:03:47 PM
Can Wisconsin even overcome their soft schedule?

BYU was their "big" non-Conference game.

The Cougs are 1-7, with the lone win a 14 point victory over winless Portland State (FCS-Big Sky Conference).
They can, but the soft schedule leaves them no margin for error.  I think that a 1-loss Wisconsin would be extremely unlikely to get to the CFP even with a B1G Championship.  
The Badgers have exactly zero currently ranked teams on their regular season schedule.  A B1G Championship would require a B1GCG win over a highly ranked team but for the Badgers to nonetheless finish with one loss they would have to lose to a relatively unimpressive opponent and they would still finish with only one win over a ranked team.  By comparison, if Penn State wins the B1G with one loss they'll have either three wins over ranked teams and a loss to an unranked or be 2-1 against ranked teams and PSU's schedule isn't great.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2017, 09:11:07 PM »
unlikely, not extremely unlikely

if the Badgers with one close loss to the Hoosiers, Hawkeyes, or Wolverines beat soundly an undefeated top 3 ranked Penn St team in Indy, it will be tough to keep the Badgers out

unless of course there are 3 or 4 undefeated squads
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TyphonInc

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2017, 09:05:23 AM »
If Wisconsin wins out I believe they are in.
The only wrinkle is that ND is doing so well they may bump a conference champ out.
But for Wisconsin to win out the 2 teams ahead of them in the B1G east will have to lose. that gets UW to a minimum of 6th.
And they will have at least 3 teams in front of them with a loss already ('bama/Georgia loser, ND and Clemson.) Hard in voters eyes to keep an undefeated team out.

And don't forget there is always chaos (upsets), UW will be just fine if they keep winning.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 8 Horsepower Rankings
« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2017, 10:20:38 AM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on October 27, 2017, 09:05:23 AM
If Wisconsin wins out I believe they are in.
The only wrinkle is that ND is doing so well they may bump a conference champ out.
But for Wisconsin to win out the 2 teams ahead of them in the B1G east will have to lose. that gets UW to a minimum of 6th.
And they will have at least 3 teams in front of them with a loss already ('bama/Georgia loser, ND and Clemson.) Hard in voters eyes to keep an undefeated team out.

And don't forget there is always chaos (upsets), UW will be just fine if they keep winning.
I don't think anyone doubts that a 13-0 B1G Champion Wisconsin would get in.  The maximum number of undefeated P5 Champions is:
  • #1 Bama or #3 UGA, SEC
  • #2 PSU or #5 Wisconsin, B1G
  • #4 TCU, B12
  • #8 Miami, ACC
I don't think that is in question.  The question is whether or not they could get in with one loss.  I doubt it and said that I thought it was extremely unlikely.  Fearless mildly disagreed and said that it was unlikely but not extremely unlikely.  
Quote from: FearlessF on October 26, 2017, 09:11:07 PM
unlikely, not extremely unlikely

if the Badgers with one close loss to the Hoosiers, Hawkeyes, or Wolverines beat soundly an undefeated top 3 ranked Penn St team in Indy, it will be tough to keep the Badgers out

unless of course there are 3 or 4 undefeated squads
First, if Wisconsin wins the B1G with one loss then there can only be a maximum of three undefeated P5 teams:
  • SEC Champion Bama or Georgia
  • B12 Champion TCU
  • ACC Champion Miami

I still think, however, that Wisconsin getting in with a loss is extremely unlikely because their schedule is crap.  In addition to obviously being behind all three potential undefeated P5 Champions, I think that they would also be behind all of the following potential 1-loss teams:
  • A 1-loss SEC Champion (either Bama or Georgia)
  • A 1-loss ACC Champion Clemson, NCST, VaTech, or Miami
  • A 1-loss Notre Dame
  • A 1-loss B12 Champion TCU, OU, or OkSU

Finally, I think it would be a toss-up between a hypothetical 1-loss B1G Champion Wisconsin and a hypothetical 1-loss PAC Champion Washington or WSU because the two Washington Schools played similarly unimpressive OOC slates.  


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