Indiana-Illinois is bigger than Nebraska-Michigan
I'm not sure that this is as laughable as
@FearlessF thinks but it is definitely up in the air.
In theory #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana is a HUGE game but this early in the season, who knows.
I think Michigan/Nebraska is arguably bigger mostly because Michigan's schedule is extremely easy. Of the B1G's currently ranked teams the Wolverines:
- Host #1 Ohio State on 11/29
- Do not play #2 Penn State
- Do not play #6 Oregon
- Do not play #9 Illinois
- Do not play #19 Indiana
- Travel to #25 USC on 10/11
Other than this game and the visit to SoCal, the Wolverines visit MSU, NU, and UMD. They host UW, UDub, PU, and tOSU. If they win this, 7-2 should probably be seen as their floor (losses at USC and vs tOSU). That might get them into the CG mix and upsetting either USC or tOSU to go 8-1 would almost certainly get them in. That makes this game a big deal.
On the other side of the ledger, Nebraska has a pretty lightweight B1G schedule as well. Of the B1G's currently ranked teams the Cornhuskers:
- Do not play #1 tOSU
- Travel to #2 PSU on 11/22
- Do not play #6 Oregon
- Do not play #9 Illinois
- Do not play #19 Indiana
- Host #21 Michigan on Saturday
- Host #25 USC on 11/1.
It is a similar story for the children of the corn. If they win this weekend they'll probably be favored in every remaining game except PSU. That makes 7-2/10-2 or 8-1/11-1 into very realistic possibilities.
I do think that IL/IU is a huge game. Both of them have CFP potential but I think they have more remaining decent tests. Illinois still hosts #25 USC and #1 tOSU and has a West Coast road trip to Seattle. Indiana still has to travel to both Eugene and State College for two road games against top-10 teams.
Where I think IU/IL is important is that the winner gets some relief while the loser probably needs a big upset. Indiana isn't getting into the CFP at 6-3/9-3 with losses to the only ranked teams they played so if they don't beat Illinois at home they'll have to find a way to upset either #6 Oregon in Autzen or #2 Penn State in Happy Valley. Good luck with that.
Similarly, I think that Illinois has zero chance at 6-3/9-3 with losses to the only ranked teams that they played. They might not even get in at 7-2/10-2 with losses to IU and tOSU and a home win over USC so if they lose this they absolutely have to beat USC and they might need to spring an upset on the Buckeyes in a few weeks.
FWIW:
Illinois' last five wins over Ohio State came in Columbus (2007, 2001, 1999, 1994, 1992) so they haven't beaten the Buckeyes in Champaign in over 30 years (1991).
