I really think it is close between the top-3. I'm the only one who as PSU #1. Everyone else has them #3 except LittlePig who has them #2 between #1 UW and #3 tOSU. We all of those three in our top-3.
I think you guys are not giving PSU enough credit. They played a crazy-tough schedule with five games against the top-7 including three on the road. That compares to three games for UW (all at home) and four games to tOSU (two home, two road).
The top-7 this year only lost five home games and two of them were to Penn State:
- #4 Northwestern lost at home to Penn State
- #6 Michigan lost at home to MSU and tOSU
- #7 Iowa lost at home to PSU and PU
I think people are discounting PSU due to the two losses but they lost two games by a combined four points with both losses coming on the road against quality opponents.
I always compare common opponents. PSU and tOSU:
- H2H: Ohio State won but it was by one point at home, not very decisive, IMHO.
- vs #5 MSU: Ohio State obviously did much better
- vs #6 M: Penn State did much better
- vs #7 Iowa: Penn State did much better
- vs #9 UNL: Ohio State did much better but that was mostly because PSU gave up a ton of points in garbage time.
- vs #10 IU: Roughly a push. PSU won by three more points but did it at home.
- vs #11 RU: Ohio State did much better.
- vs #12 UMD: PSU did much better.
That is awfully close to me. The H2H was close and I think that performances against MSU and Iowa basically cancel each other out. Similarly, IU was a push and performances against RU and UMD basically cancel each other out. I have PSU at #1 because what is left is PSU's superior performance against the Wolverines. Also, in games against non-common-opponents PSU beat the crap out of Northwestern on the road while Ohio State beat the crap out of Illinois at home. That leans toward PSU as well.
PSU and UW:
- vs #4 NU: PSU did much better and did it on the road.
- vs #6 M: PSU did much better.
- vs #7 Iowa: UW did much better.
- vs #9 UNL: UW did better but that was mostly because PSU gave up a ton of points in garbage time.
- vs #10 IU: Roughly a push. PSU won by three more points but did it at home.
- vs #12 UMD: PSU did much better.
That is a strong PSU lean. Adding in games against non-common-opponents complicates things. PSU lost to both tOSU and MSU on the road and beat RU soundly at home. UW beat PU by eight at home, MN by 31 on the road, and ILL by 14 on the road. The problem with holding PSU's two road losses against them in a comparison with UW is that Wisconsin's toughest road game was against #9 UNL. That just isn't comparable to having to go into Columbus or East Lansing.
I'm sticking with my vote for PSU at #1 but it is close enough that next week I plan to drop them to #2 behind the B1GCG winner.
