Is it?
IMHO this game may be important as to which B12 team will be the conference's representative to be a sacrificial lamb in the CFP. But neither of these teams is going to win the NC.
I was thinking some more about this and I want to revise my answer.
I still agree that there is basically zero chance that ISU/KSU are going to win 3-4 straight CFP games to win the NC but . . .
These teams ARE good enough to pull off an upset that definitely could impact the NC. Consider this example:
Lets say that the Texas / Ohio State game is a close game similar to either last year's tOSU/Oregon game at Oregon or last year's TX/tOSU game. Ie, the kind of game where the loser has good reason to feel that they *COULD* have won. Then lets say that the winner ends up as the #1 seed and the loser ends up as the #4 seed. As the #1 seed, TX/tOSU will play the #5/12 winner in the quarterfinal and as the #4 seed, TX/tOSU will play the #8/9 winner in the quarterfinal. It isn't unrealistic to think that ISU (winner in Dublin) could be the #5 seed and KSU (loser in Dublin) could be the #8 or #9 seed. So lets say that ISU and KSU win their opening round games. Thus, the quarterfinals on that side of the bracket are:
- #1/4 TX vs #5 Iowa State or #8 Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl (I'm assuming location here)
- #1/4 Ohio State vs #5 Iowa Stater or #8 Kansas State in the Rose Bowl (same).
Realistically, the whole college football world is going to be focused on the impending 'clash of titans' between Ohio State and Texas. After a great CFP semi-final in 2024 then another great game in Columbus in late August, TX/tOSU III would be highly anticipated even before it becomes official and therein lies the problem. ISU/KSU aren't at TX/tOSU's level but they ARE close enough that if the Longhorns and Buckeyes go into the Sugar and Rose Bowls focused on each other and NOT on the team on the opposite sideline, the possibility of one or both getting upset is very real.
If you don't think so, just look at last year's TX/ASU CFP Quarter-final. The Sun Devils didn't pull off the win but they get to OT with the mighty Longhorns.
That would impact the NC race. If one of TX/tOSU got upset then the other would get a relatively lightweight match-up in their semi-final which may well help them in the NCG against say Georgia or Penn State. Alternatively, if BOTH Texas and Ohio State managed to get upset in their quarter-final games then the opposite semi-final essentially becomes the NC.
So I agree with you in the sense that I find it more-or-less impossible for ISU/KSU to win the NC but I still think the game in Dublin may end up impacting the NC race because it is entirely possible that it will determine B12CG admission and admission there could lead to a CFP berth that could lead to an upset of an actual contender.