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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10640 on: September 06, 2024, 04:00:35 PM »
I run in temps like that all through the winter.  Makes me considerably faster than running at 90F.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10641 on: September 07, 2024, 08:33:11 AM »
This hurricane season is confounding experts and defying forecasts. What the heck is going on? | CNN

This is why I think human ability to predict a hurricane season is poor, the climate is too complex to be modeled very well.  Then they come up with "well, something else happened".  It's not a good prediction when that happens, simple as that.

They claim hot water makes for more hurricanes, and when it fails to happen, they talk about caveats, after the fact.  Hopefully things stay quiet now.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10642 on: September 07, 2024, 08:53:46 AM »
I think CSU said we'd have 27 named storms this season. NHC said 25.

We've had 5.

Peak season is September 10.
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10643 on: September 07, 2024, 09:18:26 AM »
I think CSU said we'd have 27 named storms this season. NHC said 25.

We've had 5.

Peak season is September 10.
which is why I pay no attention to predicted number of hurricanes
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10644 on: September 07, 2024, 09:24:07 AM »
I pay no attention for another reason
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10645 on: September 07, 2024, 09:36:23 AM »


no gas
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10646 on: September 07, 2024, 10:28:44 AM »
I view "climate" broadly as way too complex to model.  WAY.  And yet, we try, which is fine with me, but the credibility of such models is in my view suspect.

Even predicting hurricanes seems to be more guesswork based on some very simple measurements.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10647 on: September 07, 2024, 10:36:02 AM »
An explanation of what they got wrong would be good.

Saharan dust and high wind shear are the culprits at this time.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10648 on: September 07, 2024, 10:37:27 AM »
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10649 on: September 07, 2024, 10:37:43 AM »
They THINK those are two factors they didn't model, which could be true, and there could be other factors they don't consider at all.


Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10650 on: September 07, 2024, 10:39:39 AM »


Maybe they are a bit better than random.Maybe.  I could just predict 15 named storms each year and be about as accurate.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10651 on: September 07, 2024, 10:45:23 AM »
Gonna have to revisit this comment come November or so. I hope he's wrong, obviously.


Storms “will come back,” Klotzbach cautioned. “I still don’t see this season ending well.”
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847badgerfan

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10653 on: September 07, 2024, 12:42:39 PM »
Saw this and it's similar to what I discussed a few days ago about the data center industry...

https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/06/datacenters_set_to_emit_3x/

 

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