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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10276 on: July 01, 2024, 07:36:04 PM »
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10277 on: July 02, 2024, 09:15:24 AM »
Looks like Cancun may be spared. It is now forecast to be less than a hurricane.

Jamaica looks to be in trouble.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10278 on: July 02, 2024, 09:56:11 AM »
This thing is now a Cat 5. Devastating. 
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10279 on: July 02, 2024, 12:47:55 PM »
Spaghetti models trending a little more north.  If it shoots the Yucatan-Cuba gap, it could potentially make a really nasty northward turn in the gulf.


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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10280 on: July 02, 2024, 12:50:33 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 12:47:55 PM
Spaghetti models trending a little more north.  If it shoots the Yucatan-Cuba gap, it could potentially make a really nasty northward turn in the gulf.



Yep, I was just about to point this out.



Texas could get some needed rain out of this one if the track keeps trending as it is.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10281 on: July 02, 2024, 01:04:04 PM »
The more hurricane-savvy folks on surlyhorns (lots of Houston/Galveston folks), tell me that weak storms tend to stay westward, and stronger stores make that north-northeast turn in the gulf.

Right now it's just starting to hit some shear which could weaken it enough to stay westward, but we'll obviously know a lot more in about 48 hours.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10282 on: July 02, 2024, 01:42:02 PM »
Exactly what I'm seeing. The problem I did see when looking at the latest NHC cone is that this thing is now predicted to be a Cat 1 when it hits Cancun. Earlier today it was a tropical storm. 

Hopefully the shear strengthens and shuts it down more.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10283 on: July 02, 2024, 01:58:45 PM »
Cat1 across Cancun shouldn't be catastrophic, they're accustomed to their share of storms.  Hopefully it weakens that much, by then.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10284 on: July 02, 2024, 02:28:43 PM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10285 on: July 03, 2024, 08:44:10 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 01:58:45 PM
Cat1 across Cancun shouldn't be catastrophic, they're accustomed to their share of storms.  Hopefully it weakens that much, by then.
I was told that one such storm washed out all the beaches in Cancun and they had to  truck in sand to replace them.  
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GopherRock

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10286 on: July 03, 2024, 10:43:34 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 03, 2024, 08:44:10 AM
I was told that one such storm washed out all the beaches in Cancun and they had to  truck in sand to replace them. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Wilma_in_Mexico

Hurricane Wilma sat over Cancun for two full days as a major in October 2005.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10287 on: July 03, 2024, 11:29:21 AM »
Yeah Wilma was a Cat4 when it hit, not a Cat1.  And as lh320 pointed out, it lingered far longer than most storms.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10288 on: July 03, 2024, 10:53:49 PM »

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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #10289 on: July 04, 2024, 12:41:50 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 03, 2024, 10:53:49 PM


The trick is how close their forecast is once it gets in the Gulf
Right now its moving at about 22 mph which is fairly fast.
If it can match that speed in the Gulf theres a good chanch it hits mostly in Mexico.
Its when they slow down that they have a tendency to gain strength and move in a more North direction.


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