Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

a new oil refinery was proposed about 40 miles from me in SE South Dakota a few years ago 

The locals ran it off.  I don't really blame them, but I would have enjoyed around 20 cents/gallon off in gasoline pricing

So I've got a question about what people are thinking about climate change and just wanted to poll the folks here...

Note that this question is *ONLY* for people who believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas AND that our emissions are causing warming. Not a place to debate that, but if you don't accept that as face value, my question won't make sense. 

Assumption: As CD points out, we're unlikely to make any meaningful progress to reducing CO2 emissions over the next 10-30 years. Certainly not enough to meet the targets set by the Paris Accord. We'll make some cuts where it's convenient, but generally my question assumes that emissions will be on an upward trend (or flat at the very least), and no meaningful technologies for carbon capture will magically appear. 

Questions:

• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the best case scenario for society as the planet warms. For this (and the following), the question is NOT so much about how much warming will happen--it's about the social, economic, etc effects of that warming.
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the middle of the road scenario. 
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the worst case scenario. 

And then, let me know what, in your best guess, is the most likely of those scenarios. 


I know we have a WIDE variety of experience and viewpoints here, so I want to hear your thoughts. 

Etc. like what?

Things like potential economic dislocation from rising sea levels (whether it's limited to low-lying island nations or might affect first-world coastal cities), changes in where arable farmland exists (i.e. crops that are viable in one latitude need to move north/etc), or areas that will be drought-stricken and unable to obtain water and perhaps become non-viable as living spaces (like the desert Southwest). 

Also thinks like geopolitical outcomes, as some nations will undoubtedly be affected more than others, and that could cause issues between nations of various severities depending on how you severe you think best case / middle / worst case might be. 

But not limited to that... Thinking of a thought experiment where you work through what you think could happen, because undoubtedly you're going to come up with things I haven't even considered. 

My house is spared at 10 feet, but this does not include tide, wave action or storm surge.

I'd have to move.

In fact, I'll move at the 2 foot mark due to storm surge risks.

My house is at 13 feet above, as of today.

Questions:

• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the best case scenario for society as the planet warms. For this (and the following), the question is NOT so much about how much warming will happen--it's about the social, economic, etc effects of that warming.
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the middle of the road scenario.
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the worst case scenario.

well, w/o knowing how much the planet warms it's tough to predict the effects

I really don't think warming of 1 1/2 degrees C is going to cause much effect
I don't think there's been much effect the past 20 years or 100 years
how many years has it been since sea level was 10M less?  200?

well, w/o knowing how much the planet warms it's tough to predict the effects

I really don't think warming of 1 1/2 degrees C is going to cause much effect
I don't think there's been much effect the past 20 years or 100 years
how many years has it been since sea level was 10M less?  200?

What I was getting at is that I'm not asking to turn this into a debate about how much warming will happen. That turns into a science debate about various models and none of us are climatologists. 

I'm saying you should bake your opinion on the social/economic/etc effects on how much YOU think it will warm. If you think it won't exceed 1.5C, then build that into your conclusions. If you think best case is 1.5C and worst case is 3C, build that into your conclusions. 

I have my own thoughts that things could go a lot of different directions wrt warming depending on whether we hit any specific negative feedback or positive feedback effects in the climate. When I give my own answers to these questions (which I'm waiting on so as not to bias the answers from others), I'll talk about that.