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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3458 on: September 08, 2020, 07:06:29 AM »
To summarize, we're kidding ourselves, badly.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3459 on: September 08, 2020, 07:21:25 AM »
I don't think there is much kidding going on, even a rudimentary look suggests it's a difficult problem to solve.  OTOH every effort at reducing carbon can have positive effects - this isn't a 50 or 100 year issue.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3460 on: September 08, 2020, 07:26:28 AM »
Folks are kidding themselves if they think many countries will meet their Paris commitments by 2030, and they are kidding themselves in thinking those commitments are anywhere near sufficient.

That's a lot of kidding in my book, a failure to confront obvious reality.  I think the political lens is the problem here.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3461 on: September 08, 2020, 08:03:03 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:26:28 AM
Folks are kidding themselves if they think many countries will meet their Paris commitments by 2030, and they are kidding themselves in thinking those commitments are anywhere near sufficient.

That's a lot of kidding in my book, a failure to confront obvious reality.  I think the political lens is the problem here.
What I mean is the Paris Accords aren't the only standards that exist
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3462 on: September 08, 2020, 08:16:53 AM »
Standards?  Huh?

I try and look at the data, not what someone someday hopes might maybe possibly happen by magic.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3463 on: September 08, 2020, 08:23:38 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 08:16:53 AM
Standards?  Huh?

I try and look at the data, not what someone someday hopes might maybe possibly happen by magic.
You keep talking about meeting the standards of the Paris Accords.  What I'm saying is even if those are not met, meeting half of them, or a quarter of them, or a tenth of them, is still doing something.  2 degrees is better than 3.  5 is better than 6.  9 is better than 10.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3464 on: September 08, 2020, 09:05:46 AM »
Is 3 degrees better than 3.1 degrees, at great expense?  There is a cost:benefit ratio to consider.

This whole story is out of the logical realm.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3465 on: September 08, 2020, 09:25:40 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 09:05:46 AM
Is 3 degrees better than 3.1 degrees, at great expense?  There is a cost:benefit ratio to consider.

This whole story is out of the logical realm.
It's not great. About a 3 percent reduction, same rate as some savings accounts.  There's not a lot of political will to do a lot, though in some respects it's like the COVID response, buying a bit of time and hoping for technological solutions.
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3466 on: September 08, 2020, 10:46:46 AM »
so if we dont reduce our carbon admission how long before the world ends as we know it
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3467 on: September 08, 2020, 11:13:38 AM »
IF we hit say 5°C increase by 2100, life would indeed get difficult for many.  The US would be "OK" because we could mostly manage.

The reality is folks want to PRETEND that if we only spend a trillion dollars NOW it will significantly abate problems later.

Think of a guy who gains a pound a year for 30 years and weighs 250 pounds and is gaining more weight.  He decides to lost a pound a week for a year thus solving his problem.  He finds by eating on lettuce for a few weeks he has stopped gaining weight, but is not losing weight.  He's likely to get discouraged.

I'm a believer in devising the best assessment of reality possible and dealing with that, instead of waving one's hands and pretending things will be OK.

The Paris Accords are insufficient, AND they aren't going to be met anyway.

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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3468 on: September 08, 2020, 11:17:19 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:13:38 AM
IF we hit say 5°C increase by 2100, life would indeed get difficult for many.  The US would be "OK" because we could mostly manage.

The reality is folks want to PRETEND that if we only spend a trillion dollars NOW it will significantly abate problems later.

Think of a guy who gains a pound a year for 30 years and weighs 250 pounds and is gaining more weight.  He decides to lost a pound a week for a year thus solving his problem.  He finds by eating on lettuce for a few weeks he has stopped gaining weight, but is not losing weight.  He's likely to get discouraged.

I'm a believer in devising the best assessment of reality possible and dealing with that, instead of waving one's hands and pretending things will be OK.

The Paris Accords are insufficient, AND they aren't going to be met anyway.


has our temp increased and if yes over what time period
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3469 on: September 08, 2020, 11:24:40 AM »
The best guess is global T has increased about 1°C since 1880.  The rate of increase is increasing of late, apparently.

Governments claim they want to hold that increase under 2.0°C, which appears, to me, to be a ridiculous target.



A problem with perception is that this increase is not enough to "feel" or really notice for the average human, so we're left with anecdotes or impressions or relying on graphs such as the one above.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 11:38:32 AM by Cincydawg »
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3470 on: September 08, 2020, 11:40:02 AM »
and they think this increase is caused by man?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3471 on: September 08, 2020, 11:42:21 AM »
The span between 1940 and 1980 is not understood, nearly as I can discern, and is an obvious problem for the various models.  The climate appears to have warmed 1920 to 1940 or so and then the warming trend abated.  Then it kicked in again.  The increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere (which we can measure quite precisely) didn't show a corresponding decrease.

Then you throw in the enormous heat capacity of the oceans, changes in albedo, possible melting of permafrost, deforestation, changes in ocean currents, and a few other items and you have a very complex climate system.
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