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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2562 on: May 13, 2020, 08:56:44 AM »


A nice chart illustrating the magnitude of the challenge here .... each year that passes without significant cuts makes it more difficult ...

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2563 on: May 13, 2020, 09:36:53 AM »
So looking at that graph, the black line is where we are.  Who here thinks there is a realistic chance of getting anywhere near the projected lines needed to "control" this thing?  I think at BEST we will be perhaps 10% lower by 2030, with great effort.  I think it more likely we are at the same rate or higher, for reasons I've posted previously, how countries are doing,what China is "doing" in particular.

Now, if wind and solar are truly better options than any other means of producing power, that is outstanding, it can happen because of market forces.  But the trend on W&S is pretty tepid in reality, despite all the glowing projections of a decade ago.  Wind is at 7.3% of all the US electricity production. 

Maybe it grows 10% a year off that base, maybe, that is barely enough to keep up with growing demand.  And the problem with replacing coal is that coal, like nuclear, is useful for baseline - steady - production, it is most efficient when it doesn't vary in output.  NG turbines can spool up in minutes and be producing power, and vice versa, so they are well paired with solar and wind which fluctuate.  We need some kind of baseline power source.  Yes, I know batteries are making great strides, ostensibly, fine.

Some think fusion power will be here very soon apparently.  Well, not some, nobody really thinks that at all.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2564 on: May 13, 2020, 10:08:56 AM »
I knew that was the hockey stick.  That's why I mentioned it.
IIRC, the criticism was that Mann (?) smoothed out the past temps so much that it basically eliminated the ups and downs, to the point that it's misleading.  It's got the Roman warm period looking a little cooler than the Greek cold period, for example.
What was misleading about it?  Temperatures have been rising dramatically after being pretty consistent for hundreds of years.

It has been spot on.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2565 on: May 13, 2020, 10:17:28 AM »
So looking at that graph, the black line is where we are.  Who here thinks there is a realistic chance of getting anywhere near the projected lines needed to "control" this thing?  I think at BEST we will be perhaps 10% lower by 2030, with great effort.  I think it more likely we are at the same rate or higher, for reasons I've posted previously, how countries are doing,what China is "doing" in particular.

Now, if wind and solar are truly better options than any other means of producing power, that is outstanding, it can happen because of market forces.  But the trend on W&S is pretty tepid in reality, despite all the glowing projections of a decade ago.  Wind is at 7.3% of all the US electricity production.

Maybe it grows 10% a year off that base, maybe, that is barely enough to keep up with growing demand.  And the problem with replacing coal is that coal, like nuclear, is useful for baseline - steady - production, it is most efficient when it doesn't vary in output.  NG turbines can spool up in minutes and be producing power, and vice versa, so they are well paired with solar and wind which fluctuate.  We need some kind of baseline power source.  Yes, I know batteries are making great strides, ostensibly, fine.

Some think fusion power will be here very soon apparently.  Well, not some, nobody really thinks that at all.
Solar accounted for almost 40% of all new electric generating capacity in the US in 2019.

Lots of positive things out there.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2566 on: May 13, 2020, 10:23:06 AM »
Solar accounted for almost 40% of all new electric generating capacity in the US in 2019.

Lots of positive things out there.
I should also mention that solar grew by 23% in the USA last year.  That is in spite of tariffs that raised costs quite considerably.


Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2567 on: May 13, 2020, 11:56:40 AM »
Sounds great, I guess the problem is solved!!!  Something that produces a very small portion of our electricity grew from say 1.1% to 1.3%.

No need for any government plan or program or spending, it's all taking care of itself.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2568 on: May 13, 2020, 12:02:13 PM »
It's funny of folks throw around percentage growth figures and fail to acknowledge the depths of the problem, and how little that actually does to reduce our CO2 output.


Riffraft

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2569 on: May 13, 2020, 12:17:45 PM »
Here's the thing about science.  It doesn't care if you believe it.

The earth is round, vaccines don't cause autism, and man is certainly driving climate change by increasing CO2 levels.

Arguing any of this points is possible, but certainly easily disproved.

If you want to debate libertarianism, that's politics, not science.
Forgive me my language. Let me state it another way. I believe the evidence and the scientific studies that have been done, do not "prove" that climate change is man-made. 

I am not going to cite studies because it is a waste of me time because you have accepted a theory as fact and have already closed your mind. 

And thank you very much for letting me know that Libertarianism is politics not science, I was so confused. 

Riffraft

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2570 on: May 13, 2020, 12:22:04 PM »
Some people around these parts actually get checks back.  Solar produces more energy than they use, and they are compensated by the electric company. 

I did the math on it a few years ago and it was an 8 year payback. 
 One of the electric companies out here (SRP), has made it pretty useless to go solar. I had three estimates done with their program and never worked out to make it economically feasible. Now APS out here makes it worth while. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2571 on: May 13, 2020, 12:35:54 PM »
Forgive me my language. Let me state it another way. I believe the evidence and the scientific studies that have been done, do not "prove" that climate change is man-made.
Well, "prove" often depends on your burden of proof. 

Let's ask it a different way...

What is your confidence level on the theory that increased atmospheric CO2 levels, due to man's burning of fossil fuels, cause some warming of our global climate? 

0%? 10%? 33%? 90%? 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2572 on: May 13, 2020, 12:40:54 PM »
I wasn't asked, but I believe it near certain that human actions are changing our climate, call it 90%.

I have tried my best to do a lot of reading on both sides of the topic.  I also believe, obviously, that "we" are not really "doing" anything about it that is much more that puffery.  I also think the "extreme" predictions by nonscience guys like Gore and that engineer dude have harmed the discussion immeasurably.

I think we should be trying to be dispassionate about any discussion and consider the real data, not some absurd movie.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2573 on: May 13, 2020, 01:20:45 PM »
Forgive me my language. Let me state it another way. I believe the evidence and the scientific studies that have been done, do not "prove" that climate change is man-made.

I am not going to cite studies because it is a waste of me time because you have accepted a theory as fact and have already closed your mind.

And thank you very much for letting me know that Libertarianism is politics not science, I was so confused.
My mind is totally open.  If you can find some actual evidence against man made climate change, I am all ears.

SFBadger96

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2574 on: May 13, 2020, 01:23:15 PM »
Many of you have put more detailed thought into this issue than I have. My high-level understanding of the issue that faces us boils down to this, I think:

1) We can be certain enough that we (mankind) are causing climate change that we should be obligated to act to address it. As CD says, 90% should do it.

2) While the cost studies are imprecise, there is a very real cost to unmitigated climate change that will likely dwarf expenditures we could take now to attempt to combat it. Among those costs are social instability and warfare that come from dramatically shifting availability of resources.

3) Policy makers rarely seem willing to address those future costs.

4) We, as a people (and probably not just in the United States) seem to have no understanding of how our behavior impacts CO2 emissions. The cost of making and transporting an item is something we have very little concept of even without the inclusion of the carbon footprints associated with those activities. So although we may know the price of beef consumption in dollars, we have no grasp of its CO2 footprint (nor the footprint related to streaming video on our mobile devices).

5) The only currently realistic way to generate enough energy to reduce our CO2 emissions enough is widespread new nuclear production. However, because of the catastrophic risks associated with melt down (and other potential disasters/security issues), and the high capital investment required to build nuclear plants, there is no appetite to build nuclear infrastructure. Moreover, the people who are politically most motivated to address climate change--the Democratic left--are also generally opposed to nuclear energy. That's a difficult hill to climb. Similar to the disposal of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain (or anywhere else like it), there is an ideological purity that makes perfect the enemy of the good, and demands the impossible rather than accepting the flaws inherent what is possible.

6) There are major economic interests in many sectors of our economy that would suffer if we took a serious look at CO2 emission reductions: those include energy production (primarily oil and gas--coal is populist red meat, and already economically lost), transportation, food production, and even manufacturing, because transportation of foreign-made goods is a serious issue contributing to our CO2 footprint.

Which brings me to my final, depressing point. We likely know what we have to do to accomplish the reduction of our CO2 output to a level that isn't extremely dangerous to us as a species, and even more our current cultural identities, but we don't have the political will because it will be very disruptive to our current socio-economic structure. The saddest part about this is that many of the changes we could make--building nuclear power, updating our power grid, updating our transportation infrastructure (including a transition to a bigger rail-hub system and electric vehicles for final distribution), and including CO2 emission in the cost of producing goods (which would assist in returning more manufacturing to the United States), and changing our dietary standards (less meat, fewer processed foods)--would provide overall benefit to us as a nation beyond merely reducing our emissions and addressing the climate crisis. 

Nonetheless, marshaling the political will to take on these important tasks seems beyond our current capability. One of the--but hardly the only--reasons for that is the powerful economic interests opposed to what they will lose if we make a significant investment in addressing climate change. While the oil and gas industry leads that charge, it is not alone.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2575 on: May 13, 2020, 01:24:03 PM »
Sounds great, I guess the problem is solved!!!  Something that produces a very small portion of our electricity grew from say 1.1% to 1.3%.

No need for any government plan or program or spending, it's all taking care of itself.
Solar provided 2% of US energy needs in 2019.  Growth is expected to continue to be between 20-50% annually.  Maybe we hit 3% in 2020!

And I will be the first to do tell you that we do need some type of government intervention.  I favor using government funding to advance research, and offering tax incentives to lower our dependence on oil.

 

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