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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #238 on: April 02, 2018, 06:43:41 PM »
High of 29 and low of 19 predicted for this Friday on Weather Underground dot com. The locals bent on hyperbole I refuse to acknowledge.   I'll let you know how that comes out.
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Drew4UTk

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #239 on: April 02, 2018, 07:03:22 PM »
meanwhile, spring has sprung on the mid atlantic coast... which makes me unpopular in this discussion, but not near as unpopular as saying:  I'd like to see a few more weeks of cold and snow up in the upper wisconsin area- my ski rental is doing well this year- and a few more weeks makes me happier than not.... 

i think it was four years ago i drove up to Iron county on the fifth/sixth of July... windows open in clean upland air- no noise pollution- i went to sleep with the windows open...... and it dropped to 34 degrees that night... WTF???? the next week highs were hardly out of the sixties- and i had on sleeves and a jacket more than not while everyone around me was dressed like some tropical island... i'd live up there if i could, but not in the winter.  

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #240 on: April 02, 2018, 07:13:39 PM »
Well, they just had a foot of snow North of Madison and it's not gonna warm up much. You should be happy.
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Drew4UTk

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #241 on: April 02, 2018, 07:29:46 PM »
i'm booked through the end of the month.... and have been.. the 'problem' is when it's warm and the slope clears, and folks want refunds..... which i don't mind issuing don't get me wrong... but i'd obviously rather keep it or work a deal out with them for the following season.  

i really want to get up there for deer season one year... 

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #242 on: April 02, 2018, 09:15:34 PM »
Our pool still hasn't made it above 70.  Last year during Spring Break we were swimming, this year it's two weeks later and we still haven't been in.  Darn good thing we have the hot tub!


Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #243 on: April 03, 2018, 11:15:37 AM »
Our pool still hasn't made it above 70.  Last year during Spring Break we were swimming, this year it's two weeks later and we still haven't been in.  Darn good thing we have the hot tub!


Is 70*F your minimum threshold? You southerners have different tolerances than I'm used to. ;- )

Growing up, we'd be swimming in the St. Clair River (GL waterway) by May. The water temps usually hadn't passed 45-50*F by then. Perfect for cooling off after street hockey...or wheelbarrowing slag.

I think it's a lot warmer now though. I read that Lake Huron's surface *average* had gotten to around 69/70 the last two summers, which is 10-15 points warmer than the avg surface temperatures I recall as a kid.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #244 on: April 03, 2018, 11:24:50 AM »
Average of 69/70?

Hasn't really changed over the past 20 years.

The trend lately has been downward.

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=g&yr=2017

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #245 on: April 03, 2018, 12:27:36 PM »
I interpret that data differently. What matters most for summer surface averages are two variables: the peak height is one part. And (at or about 21*C) that's consistent with what I was saying about ~70*F average surface temperatures in the two recent summers. The other part, is the breadth of that peak. How many days does the daily average stay at or above 16/17/18/19/20*C?
To me, it's inconclusive from this data set whether the peaks temperatures are changing. Though the years with Huron record highs are similar to each other, there might be a changing pattern among years whose "highs" are abnormally low. E.g., of the first ten full years at your link, three (1997, 2000, 2004) failed to hit 20*C. Of the last 10 years posted, only one (2014) failed to hit that mark. But this is a small sample size and I'm happy to recommend we draw no conclusions or trends from it. Still it does deserve at least those two sentences.
The most meaningful difference about 2017, which I'm guessing was the biggest contributor to the "record total summer average" I read in the news regards its graph shape. It peaks as a broad plateau, more broad than any other in the data set. The 2017 curve rises above 18*C and stays there 2 to 7 weeks longer than any other curve. And I suppose that's the detail you shared that is most consistent with my off-hand remark: that 2017 was an outlier.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 12:37:39 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #246 on: April 03, 2018, 12:47:06 PM »
I guess we have two conversations going, then. One is whether 2017 was an outlier. The other is whether it was a 10+ point outlier from my youth. We should drop the second point. Because I was swimming in river water, so even though the Huron was its direct source, comparing the surface temps of relatively mixed water to relatively unmixed water was not reasonable. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #247 on: April 03, 2018, 12:58:54 PM »
The lakes have generally been colder, which is reflected in catching (or not) salmon.

They like 54 degree water and the past 5 or so years they have been fairly shallow throughout Lake Michigan (generally a little warmer than Huron, even though they are the same water body).

100 feet or less of water is now the norm, where in years past it was not uncommon to have to fish in 2-300 feet of water to find that 54 degree temp.

Surface water is subject to many variables. Is it sunny? Has it rained a lot? What are the wind conditions, current patterns, and so on.

The past few years before last have generally been colder on the surface, mostly due to prolonged ice coverage (which also helped against evaporation).

Regardless, the surface temp last year, according to my own measurements, never got above 68 degrees outside of the Kenosha, WI harbor mouth. We had a lot of West winds last year, and those tend to push the warmer water to the other side of the pond.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #248 on: April 03, 2018, 01:40:22 PM »
Is 70*F your minimum threshold? You southerners have different tolerances than I'm used to. ;- )

Growing up, we'd be swimming in the St. Clair River (GL waterway) by May. The water temps usually hadn't passed 45-50*F by then. Perfect for cooling off after street hockey...or wheelbarrowing slag.

I think it's a lot warmer now though. I read that Lake Huron's surface *average* had gotten to around 69/70 the last two summers, which is 10-15 points warmer than the avg surface temperatures I recall as a kid.
Sure, why not, 70 can be a minimum threshold.  Since it typically has us swimming in mid-March, it works pretty well.  Waiting until May to swim in 45 degree water sounds... well... terrible.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #249 on: April 03, 2018, 01:48:25 PM »
45 is too cool for me

causes shrinkage
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #250 on: April 03, 2018, 04:35:04 PM »
45 is too cool for me

causes shrinkage
As problems go, shrinkage doesn't make my list. I'm a big fan of the iciness. I'm into extended snowy camping, though that's not really about being cold; it's about being so prepared that you aren't. A better example might be polar plunges. I think those are good fun. One time, in Iceland, the wife and I visited a remote spa that let us leap back and forth from natural thermal pools and a lake filled with glacial meltwater and calved icebergs. Unforgettable.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #251 on: April 03, 2018, 05:00:28 PM »
don't know if I could actually mentally prepare myself for the polar plunge

now alcohol..........

physically, there's gonna be some shrinkage - regardless of preparation
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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