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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2156 on: April 19, 2020, 03:49:25 PM »
HIghs in the low 70s here next few days, a couple days with some rain.  Supposed to hit 80°F in 8 days.

June obviously can have some hot days.

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2157 on: April 22, 2020, 10:19:09 PM »
Since the Covid thread has gotten chaotic and this is the better place for it, anyway, especially with it being Earth Day....

Coal is now dead in Austria and Sweden and the rest of the EU isn't far behind. It's all economic at this point.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/sweden-adds-name-to-growing-list-of-coal-free-states-in-europe/

Yes, natural gas has been the primary reason for its decline so far, but wind and solar are becoming the top source of new generation, as it is.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42497

Yes, that was published in January (pre-Covid), but the EIA is notoriously conservative, anyway, since consistently underestimate the growth of renewables, and the pandemic is affecting gas more severely than wind and solar, anyway.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2158 on: April 23, 2020, 07:01:41 AM »
Germany has announced it will put its last coal plant offline by 2038, a commitment that still has to be firmed up in the country’s coal exit law.

If I were "in charge" in the US, I'd make it a policy to shutter coal power plants as rapidly as possible.  I don't know if government can make it happen faster than it is happening naturally of course.  Germany has a large economy obviously, and they remain reliant on coal generation particularly as they are shutting down nuclear plants.  They also are getting NG from Russia.  Shutting down coal in 18 years in not very impressive really.

In 2019, Germany generated electricity from the following sources: 29% coal, 25% wind, 14% nuclear, 10% natural gas, 9.1% solar, 8.7% biomass, 3.7% hydroelectricity.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2159 on: April 23, 2020, 09:08:19 AM »
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/494203-study-arctic-will-have-iceless-summer-by-2050

Dirk Notz, a lead author of the study, said the Arctic could experience iceless summers soon, regardless of whether carbon dioxide emissions are reduced but added that doing so would delay the process.

"If we reduce global emissions rapidly and substantially, and thus keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless likely disappear occasionally in summer even before 2050," Notz said.

I don't think "we" will reduce emissions rapidly and substantially in the next 20 years, perhaps slowly and gradually, at best, though an economic shut down helps.

CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2160 on: April 23, 2020, 10:44:11 AM »
Germany shutting down nuclear plants seems counter-intuitive.  Replacing coal plants with nuclear ones is a fast way to lower CO2 emissions.  Most of nuclear's problems are long-term.  If the emergency is today, it seems like nuclear ought to be a bigger piece of the fix, not a smaller one.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2161 on: April 23, 2020, 11:18:55 AM »
That is one reason I don't take this seriously, meaning I view all the clamor as just that, bold talk from a one eyed fat man.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2162 on: April 23, 2020, 11:44:26 AM »
When I see politicians announce commitments to what they will do 20-30 years from now, I do always take that with a grain of salt. 

Most of them won't be in power at that point, so they know it'll be someone else's job to renege on the promises.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2163 on: April 23, 2020, 11:54:18 AM »
That too, and I see it all the time.  Even a goal for 2030 is suspect to me, and the Paris agreements EVEN IF MET are not nearly enough if the models are about right.

This is just hot air to me.  Someone should get serious about it and lay out a real plan, which would shock everyone.

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2164 on: April 23, 2020, 12:01:16 PM »
Germany has announced it will put its last coal plant offline by 2038, a commitment that still has to be firmed up in the country’s coal exit law.
But didn't you say it really doesn't matter if India/China/Russia aren't falling in Line?I could see if national stock of coal is depleting.Man folks really dissing the coal miners lately
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2165 on: April 23, 2020, 12:03:46 PM »
It matters little if the US went to zero carbon tomorrow if China et al. don't do something close to that, in terms of climate change, using the models.

The forecasts of the models is very very dire, far worse than many appear to understand, and we're past the point of no return in effect.

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2166 on: April 23, 2020, 12:13:27 PM »
The forecasts of the models is very very dire, far worse than many appear to understand, and we're past the point of no return in effect.
A few years back one of the cable channels did a few episodes of earth w/o Humans or sumsuch.How the earth would adjust and reclaim/regrowth metropolitan areas.Pretty interesting.I'm a big believer of saving as many trees as we can
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2167 on: April 23, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »
I love trees.  Tree cover in the US has gone up incredibly since 1930.

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2168 on: April 23, 2020, 12:49:20 PM »
My point is that coal is going to die eventually. It's just a matter of time. You can create a map of them here: https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php. California has 1 left, New England has 2 left, New York has 4, New Jersey has none, Oregon / Washington / Idaho have 1 each.

Germany made a shortsighted decision to focus on shutting down nuclear after the Fukushima disaster. I agree that existing nuclear should be kept open as long as possible. The problem is that new nuclear is not even close to being economical. The one in Georgia will almost certainly be the last big new nuclear plant in the country. Nuclear's last hope is smaller-scale plants that will start to be deployed soon, but it remains to be seen if they'll be commercially viable everywhere as opposed to just remote locations in cold climates (eg. Alaska), military bases, and some other specific situations.... Fusion power may still become viable someday, but that's too far out to count on it.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2169 on: April 23, 2020, 12:53:29 PM »
Coal plants would be gone tomorrow if they were not already paid for.  I'd be for hastening the day they are shut down if that is needed.

 

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