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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #196 on: January 18, 2018, 08:40:37 AM »
So, I reread that last article I cited, and find it confusing, but the experimental evidence suggests my point is correct.  We do know that glass doesn't allow IR to pass freely, just as CO2 doesn't allow IR to pass freely.  I'm going to hold with the analogy as being apt.


Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #197 on: January 18, 2018, 08:44:51 AM »
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/grnhse.html

That is another usually credible source also.  I think the confusion may be because a glass greenhouse does BOTH, it prevents convection, which is not analogous to the atmosphere, and also prevents radiation of IR.  So, perhaps this is the point here, an actual glass greenhouse retains heat in part due to preventing convection, which is certainly true, and in part prevents IR from escaping as readily.  So, it isn't a pure analogy.

I know we used salt plates when running IR scans with the same on said salt plates.  The salt was transparent in the IR while glass is not.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #198 on: January 18, 2018, 12:19:11 PM »
Clouds do this too (where the main gas in this case is water vapor).  Anyone who has been in the desert at night knows how cold it can get on a clear night, as there's nothing to keep the IR close to the surface of the earth.  
Is that the mechanism? I thought it was more due to the desert being arid. Water vapor has a much higher specific heat than air, so it holds the thermal energy it picked up during the day, and carries it longer into the night. Dry areas don't have a lot of water vapor, so the air temperature changes much more quickly than it does in more humid climates.
That was my understanding, anyway. It would be interesting to know if that's incorrect.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #199 on: January 18, 2018, 01:02:12 PM »
Clear nights always allow lower temperature no matter whether it is in desert or elsewhere.  Clouds keep the heat in, so to speak because they are opaque and diffract EM radiation like IR.  If it's clear, the IR radiates back into space readily, so you have a larger difference between daytime high and nighttime low.

An arid region is going to be clear more often for obvious reasons.  Evaporation of water does exert a cooling effect obviously and that is another factor.  That could be more important in nonarid regions where there is more to evaporate, but then the RH is higher there also.

Temp430

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #200 on: February 09, 2018, 12:56:42 PM »
Grab your flak jacket and head for Mexico, it's Maunder Minimum II


http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #201 on: February 09, 2018, 02:17:52 PM »
"scientists" have been sending warnings of all types for centuries

they are a lot like the local weatherman on the 6 o'clock news - horribly inaccurate
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #202 on: February 09, 2018, 03:36:07 PM »
"scientists" have been sending warnings of all types for centuries

they are a lot like the local weatherman on the 6 o'clock news - horribly inaccurate
Not really true or fair. Very few people ever hear what "scientists" say. What they warn us about is generally a game of telephone between their original study, the PR firm hyping the study with a bombastic press release for the journal which published it to gain attention, the J-school grad who misreads the press release and is incapable of understanding the source material anyway but has to get clicks. And then the people who share/promote it through social media etc are doing it through confirmation bias and political agenda instead of actual scientific knowledge.
As I've said, WHENEVER you see stories like this, go to source material if you can. What you'll usually see is that the research by the scientist themselves is quite narrow and measured, and doesn't under any circumstances sound as dire and terrible as what the news article makes it out to be. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #203 on: February 09, 2018, 04:41:31 PM »
Very true, and scientists write in a particular "style" that is often obscured in the translation into the popular media.

If you ever pick up a copy of Nature or Science and run across a paper on climate, you likely will find it obscure in its terminology, and I've never seen one ever claim "climate change is real".  They deal with one variable in one climate model and perhaps a variation on that in the main, or suggest another variable may need considering.  And those two journals are very top line high order things that generally feature only papers of a very high order.

This reminds me of a story from my work days.  Our director was determined to move us from a large upstream facility in the company to a very downstream location some 15 miles away.  I complained that we would be losing significant library assets, which was true, so he threw me a bone, some space, and $25,000 for journals important to our group.  Well, OK I guess, not the same, but better than nothing (stuff was not on line back then).  So, I order some journals, one of which was about $2500 a year as I recall, and put through the POs and the director's admin called me up and said "$2500 for MAGAZINES!!!!!".  She was livid, truly.  We ended up with a semi-decent library which no one but me ever used and later was thrown out to the trash when my career moved elsewhere.

I thought they should at least have burned them.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #204 on: February 09, 2018, 05:09:07 PM »
Compare the language in Temp430's link: http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865

With the language in the UCSD News Center [the scientists in question were from UCSD]: https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/reduced_energy_from_the_sun_might_occur_by_mid_century

Then compare that the scientists who wrote this study weren't apparently making ANY claims about climate. The study was called "Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs"

Obviously this is important to climate, but in this quote, you can see that Lubin is NOT making climate claims, but providing data that may be of use to those who model climate and include solar radiation in their models.

“Now we have a benchmark from which we can perform better climate model simulations,” Lubin said. “We can therefore have a better idea of how changes in solar UV radiation affect climate change.”

Basically all they were looking as was how the fluctuation cycles worked. 

Then the IB Times starts throwing out "another ice age" fear-mongering, which didn't really come from anything in this study.

But hey, since nobody is actually going to read the above, hope you all enjoy your ice age. ;-)

Drew4UTk

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #205 on: February 09, 2018, 05:14:40 PM »
..... it reminds me of Norm at the end of the bar explaining complex circumstances in what he has decided is an authoritarian tone and language... Or the Home Improvement guy trying to repeat what the guy on the other side of the fence explained to him...

the economy of climate change isn't to be ignored, though, and that is what it's all about.  hell, it may be better described as a religion at this point... maybe even is theology described as a 'way to live' akin to Islam's directives and adherence.  

and then, there is this- which strikes the nail firmly on the head as far as the political aspect:


https://www.facebook.com/DankTrumpMeme/videos/1849914161897744/

which satisfies my sense of humor to watch- and does a better job of demonstrating the divide than I ever could, especially in the beginning.

all the while, there is something going on with the environment whether man made or not (as if we've cured the planet of ice ages? - said in jest- ) but i do know that bull shit walks and money talks.... and the entire thing whiffs of manipulation- which really irks me... if there is truth it stands on its own, if it stands on its own it's properly supported, if it's properly supported there is no need for 'call to emotion'.  

funny enough, i don't claim to understand much of the scientific data and how it relates to things i can observe myself, but....... most those who adhere to this strange religion/theology claim they do... in conversations with these folks, who ultimately get angry and start throwing insults- i usually find i understand it at least better than they do.  If i had the time i would love to study the facts and research their validity from all vantages, but this thing makes that hard before you encounter an extremist of some flavor or another.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #206 on: February 09, 2018, 05:28:49 PM »
The vast majority of people with opinions on climate change derived those opinions from their politics, not their understanding of the science, even at a very basic level.  IMHO, Gore made this political (among others, but he did it first) and people who dislike Gore for political reasons now dislike his message, and it was adopted by others as a means to subvert any real steps taken to deal with the possible issue.

Also IMHO, it's too late to do anything substantive here that is practicable.  This is why we don't see actual plans anywhere, even in outline form, as in "Here is how we're going to replace the fossil fuel usage with alternatives over time, here is about what it will cost, and here is the projected impact on the climate change variable according to the models".

What is being discussed by climate change activists is trimming a few tenths of a degree from the predicted rise of 2-7°C.  Yay.  And eve n achieving THAT looks improbable and expensive to me.

It could also be that some massive change in technology comes faster than expected and renders things like wind and solar afterthoughts useful only in isolated areas far from distributed power.  That of course is not very likely though there is some decent progress being made now.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #207 on: February 09, 2018, 06:57:29 PM »
Not really true or fair. Very few people ever hear what "scientists" say. What they warn us about is generally a game of telephone between their original study, the PR firm hyping the study with a bombastic press release for the journal which published it to gain attention, the J-school grad who misreads the press release and is incapable of understanding the source material anyway but has to get clicks. And then the people who share/promote it through social media etc are doing it through confirmation bias and political agenda instead of actual scientific knowledge.
As I've said, WHENEVER you see stories like this, go to source material if you can. What you'll usually see is that the research by the scientist themselves is quite narrow and measured, and doesn't under any circumstances sound as dire and terrible as what the news article makes it out to be.
sorry, that is why I put scientists in quotes
wasn't intended to dis science or true scientists
but, long before the internet or social media.  About 1975 when I was in Jr High, in science class we were taught that another "ice age" was coming from the use of fossil fuels
not long after we were told the earth was in grave danger of burning up because aerosol cans used Chlorofluorocarbons as propellants, but since the Montreal Protocol came into force in 1989, they have been replaced in nearly every country due to the negative effects CFCs have on Earth's ozone layer
I guess we will never know for sure if the ozone layer would have survived, but some folks certainly benefited monetarily from the transition.
yes, the folks that put out these articles are hacks much like the bitter drinken sportswriters that take quotes from a coach or player or administrator out of context to create something to grab fan's attention. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #208 on: February 10, 2018, 06:08:37 AM »
The feared "ice age" in the 1970s never gained any real traction in the scientific community.  It was more speculation than anything with solid data behind it, and was based on orbital cycles over long periods (Malinkovitch Cycles, if I spelled that right).  There is also some speculation about solar radiation cycles, which of course are real, and how they may have contributed to the "Little Ice Age" circa 1550-1850, which may not have been global but regional.

The ice age thing made the cover of Time which made it seem as if many climate scientists were behind it.

I think we are in the process of "running the experiment" with CO2 and in 25 years or so we should have pretty solid data on the impact of 450 ppm in the atmosphere and how that impacts climate, for better or worse.  Any notion we can control this trend is not realistic in my view.  We might dent is a little.


847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #209 on: February 20, 2018, 01:08:04 PM »
62 degrees in town today. Of course, it's gonna be in the 20's tomorrow morning, but this is pretty wild stuff.
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