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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1876 on: December 12, 2019, 02:13:35 PM »
As for intercity train and regional transit systems....

Amtrak is profitable on its most heavily used lines (particularly DC to Boston), which it the tracks to, whereas in many other parts of the country, freight trains have the right of way. I don't see that changing, so there isn't much reason to expand their system any further. I am more hopeful that one day the hyperloop technology will become commercialized, but I want to see a pilot project first....

As for inner-city and regional transit systems, I do think they're still worth investing in. For example, DC's Metro system is in the middle of building a line past Tysons (a huge suburban office park, essentially) to Dulles Airport. Maryland is about to start a project to connect their inner suburbs of DC (ie. Bethesda, Silver Spring, College Park) together and integrate it with the Metro system. There have also been a few stations built on existing lines with potential for additional ones. The inevitable concern though is what happens when autonomous vehicles become available. That could actually potentially help transit systems but just easily (if not more likely admittedly) make them obsolete. Either way, hopefully it wouldn't take too long to draw a conclusion...
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1877 on: December 12, 2019, 02:15:30 PM »
If the solutions are cheap, then they will happen on their own, and we needn't worry about government programs to facilitate anything.

And yes, I look at the data and am fatalistic, and negative.  I see no plans, no real solutions offered, just meetings, pandering, and pointless goals.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1878 on: December 13, 2019, 01:18:05 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/gm-expects-cadillac-to-be-majority-if-not-all-evs-by-2030.html

Interesting, of course, their plans will ultimately reflect what their consumers want.  Do domestic luxury buyers want electric vehicles, or will they by 2030 in large numbers?


FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1879 on: December 13, 2019, 01:22:17 PM »
I will buy a nice 2030 Cadillac in 2040 to keep my V8

since that's in 20 years and I'm currently 57, that could easily be my last vehicle
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1880 on: December 13, 2019, 01:23:32 PM »
the 40,000 2020 C8 Corvettes have all been ordered

6.2 V8 power
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1881 on: December 13, 2019, 01:32:10 PM »
It's a bit odd that a sports car would still use the pushrod architecture.  There are some packaging advantages.  They are even using variable valve timing on them.

Just about every car engine is DOHC now.  And that 6.2 L is going to be used in the redesigned Escalade as well.  Cadillac invested in designing its own "Blackwing" V8 and then barely uses it.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1882 on: December 13, 2019, 03:42:28 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/gm-expects-cadillac-to-be-majority-if-not-all-evs-by-2030.html

Interesting, of course, their plans will ultimately reflect what their consumers want.  Do domestic luxury buyers want electric vehicles, or will they by 2030 in large numbers?
I do think there's a compelling psychological advantage to charging at home at night. I certainly don't love planning my around-town trips knowing "oh, I have to stop for gas." If every time I leave the house my "tank" is full, I only have to even think about "filling up" for long trips. 

Beyond that, I do think the instant torque of electric motors is satisfying to the luxury car buyer. You don't have to do all that much to make them fast, and AWD is a lot easier when you can just drop a motor at each axle and not need a single drivetrain for the 4 wheels. And I think the typical Cadillac buyer would rather have a well-insulated serene driving experience than listen to a big honkin' V8 in order to develop that power.

Right now IMHO it's too expensive, such that the Tesla Model 3 is considered a "luxury" car only because it's priced in line with small sedans from BMW, Merc, Lexus, Acura, etc. While I think the Model S and X are luxury vehicles, the starting point for both is WAY up there price-wise. Very little else about it is all that luxurious. Get the cost of batteries down, though, and I could absolutely see Cadillac being an all-electric brand. 

I know I've been bearish on Tesla, and given a lot of things about the company, I think their future is uncertain. That said, IMHO with recent success they seem to be moving from a company that burns money to a company that could actually make money if they didn't have so much debt, which would make their future go from "disappear" to "bankruptcy, restructure, and come out stronger on the other side by shedding their debt." But all that said, I think there are many advantages to the electric drivetrain if some of the infrastructure continues to be built out and matures.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1883 on: December 13, 2019, 04:14:03 PM »
charging all the vehicles is GREAT, but we also need to develope the source of this electricity from wind and solar and renewable

opened my electric bill from Mid-American energy last night, they are very proud that just over 50% of all electricity supplied to their Iowa customers was from renewable sources.

I understand that 100% of V8s don't use renewable and if we could suddenly go all electric and it was 50% better that would be a great thing, not a good thing, but ramping up green electricity before the vehicles are sucking from the grid would be important
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1884 on: December 13, 2019, 05:08:39 PM »
Wind and Solar account for about 8% of the grid today, and might hit 15-30% by 2030, maybe.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/42864.pdf

That would largely shut down coal power plants, which would be a something, but we'd still have mostly NG for power production.  The good news is we might hit close to 50% no carbon by then counting existing and building nuclear power plants, of more don't get shut down early.  At least NG produces less CO2 than coal.`

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38252

On an annual basis, natural gas surpassed coal in 2016 as the fuel most used to generate electricity in the United States. In the AEO2019 Reference case, natural gas remains the leading source of electricity generation through 2050. In 2018, natural gas accounted for 34% of total electricity generation, and EIA projects its share to grow to 40% by 2032 and then remain between 39% and 40% throughout 2050. Electricity generation shares from coal and nuclear gradually decline as coal and nuclear become less cost competitive compared with natural gas and renewables. Renewables generation surpasses nuclear by 2020 and surpasses coal by the mid-2020s as tax credits and lower capital costs drive solar photovoltaic and wind capacity additions.

I think that premium auto customers would like EVs if done properly and not overly expensive.  The upcharge for an $80,000 car to go EV is a lower percentage than for a $30,000 car.  Cadillac sells more cars in China than in the US, and China may push this in ways the US can't.  The other factor here is that in the US Caddy makes money on its SUVs and loses money on its cars.  It should be an interesting decade, I think.


CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1885 on: December 13, 2019, 07:37:35 PM »
It's a bit odd that a sports car would still use the pushrod architecture.  There are some packaging advantages.  They are even using variable valve timing on them.

Just about every car engine is DOHC now.  And that 6.2 L is going to be used in the redesigned Escalade as well.  Cadillac invested in designing its own "Blackwing" V8 and then barely uses it.
"Pushrod," just like "live axle," makes me think of the 1950s.  And not in a good way.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1886 on: December 13, 2019, 08:01:45 PM »
The DOHC  designs today are "standard" in just about every car.  That Corvette would stay with the old small block architecture is interesting.  The main advantage is a lower COG.  They certainly get a lot of power out of it today, 495 hp from 6.2 L.  They could get more hp with DOHC, but not more torque.

The new higher level Corvettes will be interesting.  


FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1888 on: December 13, 2019, 08:11:41 PM »
The DOHC  designs today are "standard" in just about every car.  That Corvette would stay with the old small block architecture is interesting.  The main advantage is a lower COG.  They certainly get a lot of power out of it today, 495 hp from 6.2 L.  They could get more hp with DOHC, but not more torque.

The new higher level Corvettes will be interesting. 
low COG and torque are keys when trying to turn quicker lap times
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1889 on: December 13, 2019, 08:16:12 PM »
And tires, tires make a huge difference on the track today, huge.  Of course, most "quasi super cars" today sport Michelin Pilot Sport Twos or the like and that ground is level.

 

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