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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1470 on: July 02, 2019, 12:43:57 PM »
Quote from: CWSooner on July 02, 2019, 12:16:52 PM
You're welcome to collect our excess from last month and take it home with you.
If rivers had no levees, there would be no "excess" to worry about.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1471 on: July 02, 2019, 12:48:57 PM »
I would build more levees and levy a tax to pay for them.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1472 on: July 02, 2019, 12:49:17 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 12:43:57 PM
If rivers had no levees, there would be no "excess" to worry about.
I don't think he's talking about excess collected in reservoir lakes, but rather excess that was well above historical averages and caused a lot of flooding issues.  Happened all through northern Texas and Oklahoma over the past 4-6 weeks.  They also had a lot of severe weather including tornadoes.

Not that any of that is particularly unusual for that part of the country, but this stormy season I believe was definitely above historical norms.  It's been unseasonably wet and cooler than historical averages down here in Central Texico as well, though I'm certainly not complaining.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1473 on: July 02, 2019, 12:52:54 PM »
High water levels in rivers can have a profound effect on groundwater levels in surrounding properties. When groundwater levels are high (reduced storage), you can always expect increased runoff and surface ponding of "excess" water.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1474 on: July 02, 2019, 12:56:31 PM »
Didn't some areas flood with no levies?

We have none here and at times things do flood.
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1475 on: July 02, 2019, 12:57:31 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 12:52:54 PM
High water levels in rivers can have a profound effect on groundwater levels in surrounding properties. When groundwater levels are high (reduced storage), you can always expect increased runoff and surface ponding of "excess" water.
I'll take your word for it.

But again, I don't think he's talking about increased runoff.  I believe he's just talking about greater than normal rainfall and severe weather.  It's been bad for the past couple of months, really bad.

And I don't know about his part of the country, but it would take decades of excessive rainfall in my area, to raise the groundwater levels to the point where they'd impact flash flood storage capability.

Although lake levels in CenTex are up to "full" for the most part, the aquifers are still exceedingly dry.  We've severely overtaxed our water supply in Central Texas. One of the reasons I'll likely be moving once the kids graduate high school.  This area really can't tolerate the prolonged growth, it WILL run out of water.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1476 on: July 02, 2019, 01:00:06 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 12:56:31 PM
Didn't some areas flood with no levies?

We have none here and at times things do flood.
Certainly. Natural floodplain, ummm, floods.

Many of the problems we see today are the result of man-made structures or unmitigated land development (no detention/retention ponds, for example).
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1477 on: July 02, 2019, 01:06:25 PM »
We just have parking lots, I doubt they have any impact.

Is there a difference between a plain flood and a complicated flood?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1478 on: July 02, 2019, 01:09:37 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2019, 12:57:31 PM
But again, I don't think he's talking about increased runoff.  I believe he's just talking about greater than normal rainfall and severe weather.  It's been bad for the past couple of months, really bad.
He probably is, but there is a new normal. The Illinois State Water Survey just published an update to its frequency analyses that were performed in the 1980's and early 1990's. Taking the last 30 years into account has greatly increased the predictive values for rainfall events here. I imagine other states will follow suit eventually.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1479 on: July 02, 2019, 01:10:35 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 01:06:25 PM
We just have parking lots, I doubt they have any impact.
They certainly do, if detention storage was not provided as compensation.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1480 on: July 02, 2019, 01:19:09 PM »
I marvel at the engineering it takes to make an urban area work even some of the time.  We walk around a lot and enjoy watching construction jobs happening and seeing just how much is involved in planning and no doubt jury rigging/problem solving along the way.  There is one just getting off the ground that is an entire city block and it's fascinating to me, and I had not even pondered what they do with the rain which now will fall on roof tops.

We don't have that many streams of any size (until you get 3-4 miles out).  The urban area in on a divide, a crest between the Gulf and Atlantic.  I'm sure that provides some elevation change that is helpful.  And the ground is largely granite 5 feet down.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1481 on: July 02, 2019, 01:32:49 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 01:10:35 PM
They certainly do, if detention storage was not provided as compensation.
Beat me to it,An old friends mother has a home behind a few small business buildings - that were built in the '70s long after the home.Well the drains weren't piped properly nor was the parking lot graded/leveled properly.They have had flooding because of the civil/business planning incompetence.He's installed some high end pumps but still those idjits should have to pay the piper
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1482 on: July 02, 2019, 03:16:31 PM »
It's a real problem in many areas.

Stormwater management regulations were non-existent in most places until the mid-late 1980's. Even with the ones who started implanting earlier (late 1960's for some), it was not nearly enough.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1483 on: July 02, 2019, 05:10:47 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 07, 2019, 01:23:02 PM
If they can magically turn profitable, then it's fine. But given the hole they dug in Q1, and the fact that Q2 isn't projected to be profitable, Elon Musk will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat in order for this relatively modest capital raise. Because even his promises (Model Y and robotaxis) aren't likely to materialize until mid-2020 at best.

We'll see, though. Supposedly they're still guiding for 90-100K deliveries this quarter. If they manage to hit that, it suggests that Q1 was a blip. If they manage to be at least CLOSE to profitability, even if they end up with a loss, it suggests that Q1 was a blip.

But as I said, I've been getting into this soap opera, and it's a company that seems to be ever desperate in their actions to try to stay afloat.
Tesla breaks their Q4'18 record, reporting over 95K deliveries. I will say that I did not see that coming.

Next step is their quarterly earnings statement, due in about a month. If they can show good FCF and at least avoid a *big* loss (i.e. losing no more than $200M), it's bullish. If their ASP / product mix (and leasing) cuts hard into FCF or they generate big losses, it's bearish. 

As they say in the soap opera world, To Be Continued...
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