header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: [1]   Go Down
Author

Topic: B1GCG race after week 8

 (Read 754 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10621
  • Liked:
B1GCG race after week 8
« on: October 21, 2024, 10:25:06 AM »
For the time being I'm only going to consider the teams with less than two losses.  The 2-loss teams are mathematically in the race but for now I'm going to ignore them for several reasons:

  • Nobody has played more than four games so teams with 2+ losses are .500 or below. 
  • The teams with 2+ losses would need a LOT of help to get to the CG. 
  • With the new non-divisional format, you can no longer get to the CG by winning a weaker division with a dubious record, you have to be at least tied for the second best record in the league. 
  • It is just too much to keep track of because there are so many teams. 


So here are the contenders and their record in games against each other:
  • 4-0 Indiana:  @ tOSU on 11/23.  DNP Oregon, PSU, IL, UW. 
  • 4-0 Oregon:  beat tOSU.  vs IL on 10/26.  @ UW on 11/16.  DNP IU, PSU. 
  • 3-0 Penn State:  beat IL.  @ UW on 10/26.  vs tOSU on 11/2.  DNP IU, Ore. 
  • 3-1 Illinois:  Lost to PSU.  @ Ore on 10/26.  DNP IU, UW, tOSU. 
  • 3-1 Wisconsin:  vs PSU on 10/26.  vs Ore on 11/16.  DNP IU, IL, tOSU. 
  • 2-1 Ohio State:  Lost to ORE.  @ PSU on 11/2.  vs IU on 11/23.  DNP IL, UW. 


A lot of this will be cleared up this weekend with:
  • Illinois at Oregon:  The Illini are an enigma to me.  They beat M but needed OT to take care of PU?  As a practical matter, the Illini are going to have to win in Eugene to stay in the race because with a loss here they'd have two losses and both of them would be highly problematic from a tiebreaker standpoint. 
  • Penn State at Wisconsin:  Are the Badgers improved or is it just scheduling?  With Oregon left on the schedule I just can't see Wisconsin getting to Indy without beating PSU at home. 

Note that the three undefeated teams do NOT play each other.  Thus, we *COULD* end up with IU, Ore, and PSU all tied at 9-0.  If that happens the relevant tiebreaker would be the league record of each teams' league opponents.  That would likely eliminate IU and leave us with a B1GCG of Oregon and Penn State. 
« Last Edit: October 21, 2024, 10:43:49 AM by medinabuckeye1 »
Logged

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 31101
  • Liked:
Re: B1GCG race after week 8
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2024, 10:30:24 AM »
Oregon is a home game for Wisconsin, FYI.
Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10621
  • Liked:
Re: B1GCG race after week 8
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2024, 10:44:36 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2024, 10:30:24 AM
Oregon is a home game for Wisconsin, FYI.
Fixed it, thank you.  In my original post I had it as a road game for both teams, I had "@ UW" for Oregon and "@ Ore" for Wisconsin.  Oops.  
Logged

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10621
  • Liked:
Re: B1GCG race after week 8
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2024, 11:02:40 AM »
Various tiebreaker scenarios:

Despite having a loss, Wisconsin is the ONLY team that currently controls their own destiny to the B1GCG.  

As mentioned in the OP, the three undefeated teams do not play so they could all finish 9-0.  In that case the relevant tiebreaker would be cumulative league record of league opponents.  Indiana probably loses on that because they have what appears to be the easiest schedule.  

That said, none of the undefeated teams technically control their own B1GCG destiny because they need some outside help.  

Illinois has a loss to PSU and plays Oregon this week.  If they beat Oregon they'll still need some help.  The clearest path would be for IU to lose a game.  That would get the Illini into no worse than a tie for 2nd place and the tiebreakers might just work for them.  

I believe that Wisconsin controls their own destiny.  If they win out to finish 8-1 that would give PSU and ORE each a loss.  Wisconsin would be no worse than tied for 2nd (behind IU) and they'd have the tiebreakers over PSU (H2H), ORE (H2H), IL (record against common conference opponents), and tOSU (record against common conference opponents).  

Ohio State needs a Wisconsin loss.  They also *MIGHT* need an Illinois loss.  
Logged

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1631
  • Liked:
Re: B1GCG race after week 8
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2024, 08:11:45 AM »
Looks like this Saturday is a great day to watch some  Big Ten Football. 

Ore-ILL,  PSU-WIsc,  OSU-Neb,  Mich-MSU.

Who would have thought that Mich-MSU would be the least important of those 4 games in the Big Ten race?
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
Dock Signs-WeatherPROOF

Custom Garden Signs!