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Topic: UCLA and USC

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Temp430

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #308 on: July 05, 2022, 02:26:03 PM »
Honestly, nobody making these decisions cares. It isn't about being "good at football", it is about being good at generating media rights MONEY.
Well, I think some of the Big12 teams you left out would put plenty of eyes on TV sets since you omitted the Texas TV market at first whack.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #309 on: July 05, 2022, 02:48:40 PM »
Well, I think some of the Big12 teams you left out would put plenty of eyes on TV sets since you omitted the Texas TV market at first whack.
Texas is a hugely populous state with 29 million residents as of the 2020 census but I assumed that the three biggest CFB draws in Texas (UT-A, OU, aTm) are all either in the SEC or about-to-be in the SEC and thus basically unavailable.

That 29 million figure is huge but it is less than three times the population of each of the four current (before USC/UCLA) most populous B1G states:
  • PA, 13M
  • IL, 12.8M
  • OH, 11.8M
  • MI, 10.1M
My contention is that the #4 draw in TX (whoever that may be) simply isn't all that valuable because even starting from 29M, there aren't all that many fans left after the top three.

I did leave the possibility that two Texas schools might be worthwhile and my best guess is that the next two biggest draws are Houston and TxTech but UTEP might be in that mix largely because ElPaso is REALLY far from Austin and College Station. FWIW, the Sun Bowl is almost nine hours from Darrell K Royal and more than 10 hours from Kyle Field.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #310 on: July 05, 2022, 02:51:07 PM »
@utee94 , out of curiosity, how would you rank the biggest CFB draws in Texas.

I assume that Texas is a clear #1 but I don't know if #2 would be aTm or OU. After that I'm purely guessing at #4 and below, thoughts?

utee94

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #311 on: July 05, 2022, 02:53:55 PM »
Texas is a hugely populous state with 29 million residents as of the 2020 census but I assumed that the three biggest CFB draws in Texas (UT-A, OU, aTm) are all either in the SEC or about-to-be in the SEC and thus basically unavailable.

That 29 million figure is huge but it is less than three times the population of each of the four current (before USC/UCLA) most populous B1G states:
  • PA, 13M
  • IL, 12.8M
  • OH, 11.8M
  • MI, 10.1M
My contention is that the #4 draw in TX (whoever that may be) simply isn't all that valuable because even starting from 29M, there aren't all that many fans left after the top three.

The #4 is definitely not as valuable as the top three-- but it's still almost certainly more valuable than many of the PAC teams you did include on your "new conference" list.

That's the point I'm making, and I think it's basically the same as the point Temp430 is making.

As you point out, it's difficult to quantify, but we already know that nobody watches Stanford or Berkeley or Utah or the Arizona schools.  Those ratings, while in a conference with USC and UCLA, were still extremely low.  And that's their absolute ceiling.  It only gets worse without UCLA and USC.

Cincydawg

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #312 on: July 05, 2022, 03:02:55 PM »
Does TT and TCU have many fans who are not somehow attached to the school?  My guess is Texans with no specific attachment are either UT or A&M fans, more of the former.  I'd guess those schools have few fans outside a 50 miles circle from campus.


utee94

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #313 on: July 05, 2022, 03:04:27 PM »
@utee94 , out of curiosity, how would you rank the biggest CFB draws in Texas.

I assume that Texas is a clear #1 but I don't know if #2 would be aTm or OU. After that I'm purely guessing at #4 and below, thoughts?
TAMU still likely gets more viewers overall in the state, than OU does, but OU gets more of the Dallas/Fort Worth market than the ags, and the ags get more of the Houston market than OU.

So it's probably Texas, TAMU, OU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU, and then some hodge podge of the rest of the FBS schools in the state (there are 12 total, last time I counted).

Oh and LSU is probably in there too, maybe even before TCU, but certainly ahead of the UTEPs and North Texas type schools.

My intuition tells me that Texas Tech and Oklahoma State would both be more valuable than many of the PAC schools you originally listed, purely from television ratings perspective.  But it would be difficult to quantify by how much.


utee94

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #314 on: July 05, 2022, 03:08:53 PM »
Does TT and TCU have many fans who are not somehow attached to the school?  My guess is Texans with no specific attachment are either UT or A&M fans, more of the former.  I'd guess those schools have few fans outside a 50 miles circle from campus.


West Texans who don't have any reason to favor a team in Texas, often like Texas Tech.  It's very regional.

TCU has almost no fans that are  not associated with the school.

Baylor has a surprisingly large following, partly because there are a lot of bandwagoners that like then just because they've had some decent success over the past decade-plus, and partly because they get a lot of support from Baptists in the state, who are otherwise unaffiliated with any other Texas university.  Similar to the way Notre Dame has a lot of fans simply because of Catholicism, though obviously not on anywhere close to the same scale.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #316 on: July 05, 2022, 04:01:30 PM »
So from my list above, which schools would get culled?

The two Arizona schools:
I think you'd want a presence in Arizona and if you are dropping just one, I'm not sure which. My impression is that Zona has more BB success while ASU has more CFB success. ASU is in the Phoenix metro area which is substantially more populous than the Tucson metro area so I guess keep ASU and drop Zona.

The two Bay Area schools:
Realistically one or both of these may be off the table anyway. Assuming they are available you might only want one but would you want Stanford or California?

Colorado, I assume stays.

Utah/BYU:
According to Google there are 6.6M Mormons in the US. If that were a state it would be #18 between Indiana and Maryland. 

Utah has 3.3M people which is #30 between Connecticut and Iowa.

Both of those sound worth keeping but there is a whole lot of double counting going on here because a little better than half of the people in Utah are Mormons.

My guess is you'd be better off with BYU because they probably have a lot more fans nationally. 

The PacNW, Washington and Oregon:
Washington is the 13th and Oregon the 27th most populous state with 7.7M and 4.2M residents respectively. 

I see those both as worth keeping for this hypothetical league if only based on potential. 

Kansas:
Kansas is the 35th most populous state with under 3M residents but probably worth keeping. 

West Virginia:
West Virginia is the 39th most populous state with about 1.8M residents but they seem to draw a lot of fans across Appalachia so I think they are worth keeping. 

UCF:
The good is that Florida is immensely populous with 21.6M people as of 2020 and rapid growth. The bad is that you are fighting the SEC (UF) and the ACC (FSU and Miami) for them as fans. I think they are worth keeping based largely on potential. 

Non-big3 TX schools (after UT-A, aTm, and OU):
Based on @utee94 's response, maybe Baylor is more worthwhile than I thought. This hypothetical league would probably benefit from some connection to Texas but too many Texas schools isn't good and even with utee's input we can't seem to even rank them past the top three, let alone figure out where to draw the line.

After those I suggested some possibilities:

Cincinnati:
The problem here, as I see it, is that Cincinnati has almost zero draw outside the immediate Cincinnati metro area. Moreover, even within that area they are at best #2 behind the Buckeyes. 

A New Mexico school:
This may not be worthwhile but bringing in New Mexico's 2.1M population could be.

A Nevada school:
Nevada's 2020 population was #32 at 3.1M and growing rapidly. The Las Vegas media market is #40 in the US. I think UNLV would make sense.

Air Force:
Not sure what their popularity is.

utee94

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #317 on: July 05, 2022, 04:11:51 PM »
So from my list above, which schools would get culled?

The two Arizona schools:
I think you'd want a presence in Arizona and if you are dropping just one, I'm not sure which. My impression is that Zona has more BB success while ASU has more CFB success. ASU is in the Phoenix metro area which is substantially more populous than the Tucson metro area so I guess keep ASU and drop Zona.

The two Bay Area schools:
Realistically one or both of these may be off the table anyway. Assuming they are available you might only want one but would you want Stanford or California?

Colorado, I assume stays.

Utah/BYU:
According to Google there are 6.6M Mormons in the US. If that were a state it would be #18 between Indiana and Maryland.

Utah has 3.3M people which is #30 between Connecticut and Iowa.

Both of those sound worth keeping but there is a whole lot of double counting going on here because a little better than half of the people in Utah are Mormons.

My guess is you'd be better off with BYU because they probably have a lot more fans nationally.

The PacNW, Washington and Oregon:
Washington is the 13th and Oregon the 27th most populous state with 7.7M and 4.2M residents respectively.

I see those both as worth keeping for this hypothetical league if only based on potential.

Kansas:
Kansas is the 35th most populous state with under 3M residents but probably worth keeping.

West Virginia:
West Virginia is the 39th most populous state with about 1.8M residents but they seem to draw a lot of fans across Appalachia so I think they are worth keeping.

UCF:
The good is that Florida is immensely populous with 21.6M people as of 2020 and rapid growth. The bad is that you are fighting the SEC (UF) and the ACC (FSU and Miami) for them as fans. I think they are worth keeping based largely on potential.

Non-big3 TX schools (after UT-A, aTm, and OU):
Based on @utee94 's response, maybe Baylor is more worthwhile than I thought. This hypothetical league would probably benefit from some connection to Texas but too many Texas schools isn't good and even with utee's input we can't seem to even rank them past the top three, let alone figure out where to draw the line.

After those I suggested some possibilities:

Cincinnati:
The problem here, as I see it, is that Cincinnati has almost zero draw outside the immediate Cincinnati metro area. Moreover, even within that area they are at best #2 behind the Buckeyes.

A New Mexico school:
This may not be worthwhile but bringing in New Mexico's 2.1M population could be.

A Nevada school:
Nevada's 2020 population was #32 at 3.1M and growing rapidly. The Las Vegas media market is #40 in the US. I think UNLV would make sense.

Air Force:
Not sure what their popularity is.

As always, a fair and detailed analysis.

Ideally you could get a view of the ratings per school and just pick them in order.  Television partner networks can provide those pretty easily, but as you've already pointed out, it's difficult to account for the "halo effect" variable-- how many people watching a Texas Tech or Baylor game, going forward will not, because Texas and OU have left for a different conference?  And, how many people watching an Oregon or Washington game, going forward will not, because UCLA and USC have left for a different conference?

Anyway it's a very interesting topic, but I think it's probably moot because I don't think the money/contracts/penalties/GOR/exit fees/etc. are going to line up properly, for the members of the two conferences to be able to disband and form a new conference.  

FearlessF

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #318 on: July 05, 2022, 04:14:59 PM »
Yup.  What goes around comes around.

There are also rumors around, now, that Texas and OU are going to back out of their proposed move to the SEC, and move to the B1G instead.  I'm not going to lend any credibilityto those rumors by posting them here, but if it were to happen, maybe we finally get our Wisconsin-Texas game.
this would be absolutely FABULOUS !!!
not just for the matchups, but mostly for how much it would piss off "Mouth of the South," Paul Finebaum and ESPN
instantly relegating the SEC SEC SEC to 2nd place
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #319 on: July 05, 2022, 04:29:53 PM »
How many people know Arizona refers to itself as "U of A"?  
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Cincydawg

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Re: UCLA and USC
« Reply #320 on: July 05, 2022, 04:33:15 PM »
147,321 at last count.


 

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