ANY pass entails higher risk than a simple hand off, statistically.
According to Football Outsiders, the best OL in the league in 2019, Dallas, has a 13% likelihood of a run being stuffed, i.e. tackled at or behind the LOS. The worst, Miami, was 26%, but only 9 of 32 were 21% or higher.
Contrast that to completion percentage. Brees was at the high end, besting 75% this year, but only 3 players were over 70%. The bulk were between 60-70%, with only three players finishing below 60%. (Qualified by minimum 200 attempts--there are several starters who didn't qualify with 200 attempts below 60% though, most of whom failed to qualify due to seasons limited by injury).
So not taking into account fumbles, interceptions, sacks, somewhere under 20% of runs will be zero (or negative) yards for most teams, while somewhere between 30-40% of passes will be zero yards.
That's my point when it comes to variance. The NFL average is 4.26 ypc, so two "average" runs should leave 3rd and short. Two mediocre runs in a row, let's say half of average, or one stuffed run and one average run, and you might be facing 3rd and 5 or 6, where you're still in intermediate territory and may have a run or a pass option. Two incomplete passes in a row and you're in 3rd and 10 and in an obvious passing situation.
The way to win football games is to move the chains in sustained drives. Variance where 30-40% of your plays go for zero yards can stall drives even if the average of those plays is higher.