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Topic: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era
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medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #14 on:** December 05, 2018, 01:04:09 PM »

I added in what I assume the playoff committee would have done (all assume that Clemson beats Pitt):

#	NU-tOSU	UGA-Bama	TX-OU	% Chance	1	2	3	4
1	tOSU	Bama	OU	54.47%	Bama	Clem	ND	OU
2	tOSU	Bama	TX	18.16%	Bama	Clem	ND	tOSU
3	tOSU	UGA	OU	12.28%	Clem	UGA	ND	Bama
4	NU	Bama	OU	6.73%	Bama	Clem	ND	OU
5	tOSU	UGA	TX	4.09%	Clem	UGA	ND	Bama
6	NU	Bama	TX	2.24%	Bama	Clem	ND	UGA
7	NU	UGA	OU	1.52%	Clem	UGA	ND	Bama
8	NU	UGA	TX	0.51%	Clem	UGA	ND	Bama

So, assuming that Clemson beats Pitt, in retrospect I think that the % chances for the other contenders were:

100% Bama (all eight scenarios)
100% Clemson (all eight scenarios)
61.2% Oklahoma (scenarios #1 and #4)
20.64% Georgia (scenarios #3, 5, 6, 7, and 8)
18.16% Ohio State (scenario #2 only)

ELA · « **Reply #15 on:** December 05, 2018, 01:07:43 PM »

People also assume upsets mean chaos. Sometimes upsets mean clarity. If Texas or Northwestern had won this weekend, it would have made things easier. If both had won it would have made things REALLY easy.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #16 on:** December 05, 2018, 01:23:21 PM »

Quote from: ELA on December 05, 2018, 01:07:43 PM

People also assume upsets mean chaos. Sometimes upsets mean clarity. If Texas or Northwestern had won this weekend, it would have made things easier. If both had won it would have made things REALLY easy.

I'm not sure that both NU and TX winning makes it THAT easy. It depends on the Bama/UGA result.
In scenario #6 Bama, NU, and TX win. The top three are obvious Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame. The fourth would have involved some controversy. I think Georgia gets it at 11-2 but there would have been a bunch of other two-loss teams in the discussion (tOSU, TX, M, WSU).
In scenario #8 it is REALLY easy. Clemson and ND are still undefeated and in. Georgia is 12-1 and SEC Champs so they are in. The last spot is obviously 12-1 Bama because everybody else has two losses.

ELA · « **Reply #17 on:** December 05, 2018, 01:27:41 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 05, 2018, 01:23:21 PM

I'm not sure that both NU and TX winning makes it THAT easy. It depends on the Bama/UGA result.
In scenario #6 Bama, NU, and TX win. The top three are obvious Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame. The fourth would have involved some controversy. I think Georgia gets it at 11-2 but there would have been a bunch of other two-loss teams in the discussion (tOSU, TX, M, WSU).
In scenario #8 it is REALLY easy. Clemson and ND are still undefeated and in. Georgia is 12-1 and SEC Champs so they are in. The last spot is obviously 12-1 Bama because everybody else has two losses.

I mean Georgia stayed ahead of OSU even with OSU winning. I'm 99.9% confident that if what happened, happened, but OSU and Oklahoma lost, Georgia is in.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #18 on:** December 05, 2018, 06:41:41 PM »

Quote from: ELA on December 05, 2018, 01:27:41 PM

I mean Georgia stayed ahead of OSU even with OSU winning. I'm 99.9% confident that if what happened, happened, but OSU and Oklahoma lost, Georgia is in.

I agree that is what would happen, I'm just not thinking it would be controversy free. Michigan would have arguably better losses, Ohio State would have a better win, depending on how close the B12CG was OU might have better losses too. I agree Georgia would get it but there would be a bunch of 2-loss non-champions to decide between.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #19 on:** December 05, 2018, 09:23:57 PM »

The percentages, while obviously due for some regression, will always be higher than the historical percentages for the reason I posted upthread. It matters. The percentages include all games - Thursday nighters, season-openers, etc. It pulls down the numbers, compared to high-quality teams at the end of their seasons with everything on the line.

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Topic: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era

medinabuckeye1

Re: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era

ELA

Re: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era

medinabuckeye1

Re: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era

ELA

Re: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era

medinabuckeye1

Re: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era

OrangeAfroMan

Re: The surprising lack of CG upsets in the CFP era