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Topic: Eight Years of the CFP are now in the books
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betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14 on:** January 12, 2022, 01:49:36 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 01:34:48 PM

Since this is the only CFP thread on the front page, I'll put this here:

https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1480967027627937794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1480967027627937794%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjbook37%2Fstatus%2F1480967027627937794

That's a dumb hill to die on, for several reasons...

95% of the time, the B1G champion will be one of the 5 highest ranked champs, even if you assume nothing in the college football landscape ever changes.
It should be the G5 that's arguing that it should be the ***6*** highest ranked champs, to keep their seat at the table, but nothing really affects Warren in any way there.
My own belief is that the realignment of OU/TX to the SEC is going to turn the system into a P4/G6 system, or maybe at most a P4.5/G5.5 system, and if that happens it becomes even MORE likely that the B1G champ will be one of the top 4 ranked champs 95% of the time, and one of the top 5 ranked champs any year that isn't complete and total chaos.
If you're the goddamn Big Ten Conference, with some of the most storied history of the ENTIRE world of CFB, and your champ isn't one of the top 5 conf champs? They probably don't deserve to be in the playoff anyway.

Of course, this presupposes that it's true. I wouldn't exactly trust it.

ELA · « **Reply #15 on:** January 12, 2022, 01:54:47 PM »

I would think the only time it wouldn't happen, would be if there was an upset in the conference championship game. In the CFP era, where a non tourney, or even close, team knocked a team out?

utee94 · « **Reply #16 on:** January 12, 2022, 01:55:38 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 01:49:36 PM

That's a dumb hill to die on, for several reasons...

95% of the time, the B1G champion will be one of the 5 highest ranked champs, even if you assume nothing in the college football landscape ever changes.
It should be the G5 that's arguing that it should be the ***6*** highest ranked champs, to keep their seat at the table, but nothing really affects Warren in any way there.
My own belief is that the realignment of OU/TX to the SEC is going to turn the system into a P4/G6 system, or maybe at most a P4.5/G5.5 system, and if that happens it becomes even MORE likely that the B1G champ will be one of the top 4 ranked champs 95% of the time, and one of the top 5 ranked champs any year that isn't complete and total chaos.
If you're the goddamn Big Ten Conference, with some of the most storied history of the ENTIRE world of CFB, and your champ isn't one of the top 5 conf champs? They probably don't deserve to be in the playoff anyway.

Of course, this presupposes that it's true. I wouldn't exactly trust it.

If it's true, of course, I actually agree with Warren.

However, it seems like he's trying to protect FBS college football in general rather than performing his fiduciary responsibility to the B1G.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #17 on:** January 12, 2022, 02:45:06 PM »

Quote from: ELA on January 12, 2022, 01:54:47 PM

I would think the only time it wouldn't happen, would be if there was an upset in the conference championship game. In the CFP era, where a non tourney, or even close, team knocked a team out?

I agree but even there the B1G would likely be fine for two reasons:

The "other" B1GCG participant is usually going to be at least decent plus getting the boost from the upset that they just pulled off.
It is reasonably likely that the upset loser would get in if there are eight or 12 teams anyway.

AP ranks in the CFP era:

2014: Ohio State was #6 and UW was #11 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and moved up to #5, UW dropped to #17.
2015: Iowa was #4 and Michigan State was #5 heading into the CG. MSU won and moved up to #3, IA dropped to #6.
2016: Wisconsin was #6 and Penn State was #8 heading into the CG. Additionally, tOSU and Michigan were #2 and #5. PSU won and moved up to #5, UW dropped to #8.
2017: Wisconsin was #3 and Ohio State was #8 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and moved up to #5, UW dropped to #6.
2018: Ohio State was #6 and Northwestern was #21 heading into the CG. Ohio state won and moved up to #5, NU dropped to "RV".
2019: Ohio State was #2 and Wisconsin was #10 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and held #2, UW dropped to #11.
2020: Ohio State was #3 and Northwestern was #15 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and held #3, NU held #15.
2021: Michigan was #2 and Iowa was #15 heading into the CG. Michigan won and held #2, IA dropped to #17.

AP ranks of league champs pre-bowl:
2014:

#1 Bama
#2 FSU
#3 Oregon
#4 Baylor
#5 tOSU

2015:

#1 Clemson
#2 Bama
#3 MSU
#4 Oklahoma
#5 Stanford

2016:

#1 Bama
#3 Clemson
#4 Washington
#5 Penn State
#7 Oklahoma

Note that the other two teams in the top-7 were #2 tOSU and #6 Michigan.

2017:

#1 Clemson
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Georgia
#5 Ohio State
#8 USC

2018:

#1 Bama
#2 Clemson
#4 Oklahoma
#5 Ohio State
#9 Washington

2019:

#1 LSU
#2 Ohio State
#3 Clemson
#4 Oklahoma
#7 Oregon

2020:

#1 Bama
#2 Clemson
#3 Ohio State
#8 Oklahoma
#25 Oregon

2021:

#1 Bama
#2 Michigan
#6 Baylor
#10 Utah
#13 Pitt

So in eight years the B1G champion has been:

Second among P5 Champs twice, both times #2 AP.
Third among P5 Champs twice, both times #3 AP.
Fourth among P5 Champs three times, all three times #5 AP.
Fifth among P5 Champs once, #5 AP.

So in the CFP era the B1G Champion has never been ranked worse than #5 and has only been outside the top-4 Champs once (and that was AP only, they were top-4 in the CFP).

Even if there had been upsets:
2014:
With a win over #6 tOSU in the B1GCG the #11 Badgers would have improved to 11-2 and finished #6 right behind Baylor/TCU (both 11-1) and ahead of tOSU (11-2) and MSU (10-2). They'd have been the 5th highest ranked P5 Champion.

2015:
Michigan State WAS the lower ranked team and moved up to #3 and third among P5 Champs.

2016:
Penn State WAS the lower ranked team and moved up to #5 and fourth among P5 Champs.

2017:
Ohio State WAS the lower ranked team and moved up to #5 and fourth among P5 Champs.

2018:
With a win over #6 tOSU in the B1GCG the #21 Wildcats would have improved to 9-4 and probably finished #14. That would have been last among P5 Champs but 10-2 Michigan was #8 and 11-2 Ohio State would have been ahead of them.

2019:
With a win over #2 tOSU in the B1GCG the #10 Badgers would have improved to 11-2 and probably finished #5. That would have been fourth among P5 Champs.

2020:
With a win over #3 tOSU in the B1GCG the #15 Wildcats would have improved to 7-1 and probably finished #6. That would have been third among P5 Champs.

2021:
With a win over #2 Michigan in the B1GCG the #15 Hawkeyes would have improved to 11-2 and probably finished #5 or #6. That would have been second or third among P5 Champs.

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Topic: Eight Years of the CFP are now in the books

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Eight Years of the CFP are now in the books

ELA

Re: Eight Years of the CFP are now in the books

utee94

Re: Eight Years of the CFP are now in the books

medinabuckeye1

Re: Eight Years of the CFP are now in the books