Teams with 1st Loss Week 10:
Michigan State
Wake Forest
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 10:
Baylor
Southern Methodist
Teams with 1st Win Week 10:
Arizona
UNLV
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
4: Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, UTSA
-We lost 2 this week with Michigan State and Wake Forest falling. There are no remaining possible unbeatens in either the Big Ten or ACC.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)
Week 6: 23.53% (4 of 17)
Week 7: 15.38% (2 of 13)
Week 8: 18.18% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 33.33% (3 of 9)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 10 Thoughts:
-We lost 2 unbeatens, 2 one loss teams, and somehow lost both from our winless list. UNLV was impressive and took down New Mexico and Arizona's defense held on to beat Cal 10-3. It is Arizona's first win since 2019 (very short season last year). Every team in FBS now has been able to celebrate at least 1 win.
-Wake Forest's loss puts a very narrow margin on the ACC's playoff bowl hopes. The committee has not often left out a 1-loss power 5 conference champ so there is still a chance if they win out, but would definitely need help and can't lose another. For the conference race, the loss to North Carolina doesn't hurt since it was scheduled out of conference. Wake Forest, North Carolina State, and Clemson are still in running (Clemson with biggest hill to climb). On the other side, we are looking at Pitt, Virginia, or Miami (FL).
-Michigan State's loss to Purdue leaves the Big Ten with 3 one-loss teams, all in the east. The Big Ten's spot in the CFP bowls looked close to locked up early, but conference needs one of those 3 to win out in all likelihood. Michigan State's loss also very much puts Michigan back in running for Big Ten Championship Game. If Ohio State beats Michigan State (in Columbus), then Michigan would have to win out including beating Ohio State (in Ann Arbor). On the other side of the Big Ten, Minnesota lost leaving a 4 way tie atop the west. My prediction is that Wisconsin runs with it now.
-Alabama had a battle with LSU, but survived. Win out and nothing matters, but more close wins might matter in a couple circumstances. If Alabama drops one, but goes to Atlanta and beats Georgia or if Alabama losses a close one with Georgia and finishes 11-2, the committee will look at them against other teams. Historically, the committee has never put a 2-loss team in (although would have quite often in BCS era), but it has also thought very highly of the Tide. If you are a Cincinnati fan or a fan of a 1-loss school that might be on the edge come early December, it is best to see Alabama struggle in as many games as possible (even if it manages to win). On the race in the SEC West, Alabama might not have a game to give. Texas A&M beat Auburn. If they win out and Auburn beats Alabama, the Aggies will head to Atlanta to face Georgia.
-Baylor losing to TCU in the Big 12 helps teams outside the Big 12 trying to get to the CFP. That leaves only unbeaten Oklahoma and 1-loss Oklahoma State with realistic hopes. Oklahoma obviously controls its destiny and either one of the instate schools will probably make it in with 1-loss. The Big 12 race is now mostly down to 4 teams with a realistic shot. Baylor and Iowa State have 2-losses and are very much in it.
-Oregon continues to win which leaves the PAC-12 in the running. Their game this week vs. Washington State will lock them into the PAC-12 title if they win (but give Washington State control should the Cougars win). Their biggest challenge going forward is probably at Utah. The Utes have been playing well and 2 games between the two is very possible. If not Utah, then Arizona State is most likely to make it from the south.
Cincinnati has had a lot go right on the national scene for it this year, but has been less impressive in their last 3 games. I don't think this will matter if things improve from here, but if they were to win out with a lot more games like last few, the committee might take a 2-loss non-champ Alabama over them. I don't think that would happen if UC dominates most the rest of the way (although do still need some help as they are unlikely to beat out any 1-loss power 5 conference champ except maybe Wake Forest).
Elsewhere in the Group of 5 conferences, UTSA remains one of 4 unbeaten teams. They need to win out and get help from the American and maybe Mountain West to give Conference USA its first NY6 bowl spot. They might beat out a 1-loss American champ at this point, but could see that going either way, especially if Cincinnati is the 1-loss champ (would see the Bearcats narrowly getting). Their best shot to lock it down would be to win out, have Houston lose one more, but then beat Cincinnati for American. San Diego State is also very much in race from the Mountain West as well (but Fresno State likely took themselves out with loss this week). It will be interesting to see if UTSA starts to rise from San Diego State or if the Aztecs need another loss for UTSA as well (I lean to the latter, but also think it is likely).
Week 11 Thoughts:
Undefeated Cincinnati at South Florida (Friday): The Bearcats are 23.5 point favorites. Nothing would help them more right now than to blow the Bulls out of the water.
Undeafeated Oklahoma @ Baylor: Baylor needs to win this to stay in the Big 12 race after loosing to TCU last week. CFP competitors want Oklahoma to find its first loss. The Sooners are 5.5 point favorites and this starts out their slate of 3 games against the other 3 realistic Big 12 competitors (Iowa State and Oklahoma State after this). Win this, and Oklahoma only needs one more win to lock in a place in the Big 12 Championship Game.
1-loss Michigan @ Penn State: The line is even for this game. Michigan is very close to controlling their own destiny again, but they have to win out to do it. Lose and they likely are out of both playoff race and Big Ten race (there is a realistic scenario for everyone in the east having 2-losses, but would take a lot to go right). Penn State is now trying salvage something for the season with a still very talented team.
Purdue @ 1-loss Ohio State: Purdue has already beaten both Iowa and Michigan State (both undefeated at the time). They had surprising luck at upsetting Ohio State over past couple decades too. They will actually be very much in the west race if they can win here.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss: This is between 2 two loss teams, but is worth mentioning. A&M beat Alabama and will be in line to go to Atlanta if the Tide slip (most likely vs. Auburn). This is the Aggies most difficult remaining game and they are 2.5 point favorites.
NC State @ 1-loss Wake Forest: ACC's only hope for the CFP rests is Wake Forest winning out now. Winner of this game controls their destiny in the Atlantic.
1-loss Notre Dame at Virginia: Notre Dame a 5.5 point favorite. Cincinnati needs them to keep winning. Notre Dame for its part is slowly rising in ranking with wins. It's a lock for a NY6 if win out and might be a dark horse for CFP with enough chaos.
TCU @ 1-loss Oklahoma State: TCU took down rival Baylor last week and now have the chance to take down another 1-loss Big 12 team. Oklahoma State is a 13 point favorite, but leave just Oklahoma if TCU pulls off.
Washington State @ 1-loss Oregon: Winner controls destiny in the PAC-12 North. Oregon would be pretty close to locked in with a win. Everyone outside of PAC-12 looking for CFP spot needs to root against Oregon, but they are 14 point favorites and this will probably not be the game.
Nevada @ 1-loss San Diego State: The Aztecs are still the only 1-loss team in Mountain West and are ranked ahead of UTSA by the committee for now making them the 2nd highest ranked team from a Group of 5 conference once we remove Fresno State. They are only slight favorites here.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, SEC: 1, total: 4
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
Georgia
UTSA
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1. SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total: 12
Houston
Ohio State
Oregon
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Alabama
Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Michigan
Michigan State
Wake Forest
Remaining Winless Teams: Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 0, total: 0
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