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Topic: The League of 15

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FearlessF

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #84 on: May 10, 2021, 01:56:40 PM »
This is a good thought, especially that mathematically, the CCG should yield some upsets - certainly more than have actually happened.

I don't think you can avoid the beauty-pageant aspect, though.  If a team is ranked 2nd and loses its CCG, it could very well still get in.  Another team with the same record could be ranked 6th and a loss in their CCG is damning.

Hell, any conference with the #1 team facing another in the top 10 in their CCG should have the top team forfeit in order to guarantee 2 of theirs gets in the playoff.  I know, I know, that's silly, OAM.  Would never happen.  But it's another case of incentivising something ugly. 
something to do away with the conference influencing the officials to make sure the right team wins in the CCG
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #85 on: May 10, 2021, 02:05:24 PM »
I don't think you can avoid the beauty-pageant aspect, though.  If a team is ranked 2nd and loses its CCG, it could very well still get in.  Another team with the same record could be ranked 6th and a loss in their CCG is damning.
I don't mind the beauty pageant for at-large teams. 

In fact, it's a feature. A team may schedule stronger OOC in the hopes that if they have a mulligan in division that stops them from getting into their CCG, they have strength of schedule and marquee win(s) OOC that can help boost them in the beauty pageant. 

Ohh, what about P5 conference champs can only be in the playoff if they're ranked ahead of the top G5 champ?  I like that. 
Again, we get to "ranked". A team doesn't actually control its ranking. A team doesn't have a clue where the top G5 is going to finish--in some years the top G5 might be in the top 10. Too much subjectivity for the 5+1 portion. Leave the subjectivity for the +2 at-larges. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #86 on: May 10, 2021, 02:09:48 PM »
Possible low rankings in playoff era:
2014
12 lost to 2, 11 lost to 6, 8 lost to 3, and 14 lost to 1.  All of those lower seeds would have had a healthy jump if they pulled the upset.  Keep that in mind for the rankings going forward.
.
2015
10 lost to 1, 14 tied for the XII champ, 20 lost to 7 and 18 lost to 2.  That's pretty scary imo - if #20 or 18 pulled the upset here.  
.
2016
19 lost to 3, 11 and 14 tied for the XII champ, 15 lost to 1.  If 19 VT upsets 3 Clemson here, Clemson stays in it and bumps out a very good team, right?
.
2017
11 played 14 in the PAC.....none of the others were outside the top 10, which is amazing, actually.
.
2018
25 lost to 2, 21 lost to 6, 17 lost to 10.......these are kinda scary.
.
2019
23 lost to 3, 13 beat 5
.
The point of this is that just because we haven't been destroyed by an asteroid impact doesn't mean one isn't headed right for us!  :)
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #87 on: May 10, 2021, 02:12:04 PM »
I don't mind the beauty pageant for at-large teams.

In fact, it's a feature. A team may schedule stronger OOC in the hopes that if they have a mulligan in division that stops them from getting into their CCG, they have strength of schedule and marquee win(s) OOC that can help boost them in the beauty pageant.
Again, we get to "ranked". A team doesn't actually control its ranking. A team doesn't have a clue where the top G5 is going to finish--in some years the top G5 might be in the top 10. Too much subjectivity for the 5+1 portion. Leave the subjectivity for the +2 at-larges.
I feel like our fears are in different places.  You want to avoid an unworthy at-large getting in (correct me if I'm wrong) and I'm much more worried about a conference champ being unworthy and getting in.  The at-larges will almost always be top-5 teams, I'm not worried about them.  But there will occasionally be some screwy, BAD conference champs getting in.  That's what bothers me.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #88 on: May 10, 2021, 02:34:18 PM »
Possible low rankings in playoff era:
2014
12 lost to 2, 11 lost to 6, 8 lost to 3, and 14 lost to 1.  All of those lower seeds would have had a healthy jump if they pulled the upset.  Keep that in mind for the rankings going forward.
.
2015
10 lost to 1, 14 tied for the XII champ, 20 lost to 7 and 18 lost to 2.  That's pretty scary imo - if #20 or 18 pulled the upset here. 
.
2016
19 lost to 3, 11 and 14 tied for the XII champ, 15 lost to 1.  If 19 VT upsets 3 Clemson here, Clemson stays in it and bumps out a very good team, right?
.
2017
11 played 14 in the PAC.....none of the others were outside the top 10, which is amazing, actually.
.
2018
25 lost to 2, 21 lost to 6, 17 lost to 10.......these are kinda scary.
.
2019
23 lost to 3, 13 beat 5
.
The point of this is that just because we haven't been destroyed by an asteroid impact doesn't mean one isn't headed right for us!  :)
I just thought of something.

In all those "scary" scenarios you're describing, those teams ranked >10 in a CCG really weren't playing for CFP inclusion. Granted they were playing for the conference championship hardware, and playing for their conference's premier bowl, but a win would NOT have elevated them to CFP (top 4) status. 

With my scenario, every one of those teams will have even more incentive in their CCG to win. I don't know how that will affect upset likelihood [if at all], but my intuitive gut feeling is that it would increase. 

I feel like our fears are in different places.  You want to avoid an unworthy at-large getting in (correct me if I'm wrong) and I'm much more worried about a conference champ being unworthy and getting in.  The at-larges will almost always be top-5 teams, I'm not worried about them.  But there will occasionally be some screwy, BAD conference champs getting in.  That's what bothers me.

No, for me it's not about an unworthy at-large. Truth is that with an 8-team playoff, you could just pick the top 8 ranked teams and you wouldn't have any unworthy teams. The at-large teams in a scenario where bad conference champs are excluded would still be from that group, so I'm not concerned they'll be unworthy. 

What I'm saying is that there WILL be unworthy conference champs getting in from time to time, and IMHO it will be rare enough that it won't bother me. Especially since they'll be HIGHLY unlikely to even make it to the championship game, much less win it all. And if they make it through that gauntlet and win it all? Well, maybe they weren't that unworthy ;-) 

Everyone is terrified that the NY Giants will go from the wild card to Super Bowl champs and take out the team of destiny that's "supposed" to win it. I'm willing to accept that happening every once in a while for making conference championships mean something again. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #89 on: May 10, 2021, 02:44:54 PM »
That's all agreeable, I think.
With the added incentive to win the CCG by the underdog, is there not a complimentary loss of incentive for a top-3 team to win it?  If they're basically already in?
I know none of this is perfect, but I'm just enjoying the discussion.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #90 on: May 10, 2021, 02:58:08 PM »
That's all agreeable, I think.
With the added incentive to win the CCG by the underdog, is there not a complimentary loss of incentive for a top-3 team to win it?  If they're basically already in?
I know none of this is perfect, but I'm just enjoying the discussion.
Well, we know the psychological nature that has affected both pollsters and quite possibly the committee... It matters when your losses happen. 

Maybe an undefeated SEC team up against another undefeated or 1-loss SEC team in the CCG could lose and still be a shoo-in for one of the at-large bids... But there are only 2 at-large bids.

The question is how far you drop from the loss? Let me put it this way...

If I'm Ohio State and I'm 12-0, ranked #1 heading into the CCG, and I look around and I see an 11-1 Notre Dame behind me and an 11-1 Alabama that is not in its CCG, am I going to feel very good about losing to 10-2 Wisconsin from the opposite division in my CCG? Those two other teams can pass me sitting idle if I lose my CCG. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to feel safe if I lose. 

Cincydawg

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #91 on: May 10, 2021, 03:26:02 PM »
Is an expansion really in the offing in the next 2-3-4 years?  If not, it seems premature, to me anyway.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #92 on: May 10, 2021, 05:15:21 PM »
It's all mental masturbation, yes.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #93 on: May 10, 2021, 06:47:23 PM »
Another fun idea I had (groan from the crowd) was if we eventually evolve to 16x4 conferences (which are also 8x8), we could try some retro bowl matchups within the playoff format.  

One PAC-16 division winner plays in the Rose Bowl, the other in the Fiesta.
The B1G East winner plays in the Rose Bowl, the West winner plays in the Orange (esp if they've added OU w/ NU).
The ACC's division winners play in the Sugar and Orange.
The SEC's division winners playin the Sugar and Fiesta.
.
The higher-ranked division-winners get first choice between their conference's pair of bowls.  We could have Nebraska play Miami in the Orange Bowl.  Or Oklahoma vs FSU.  Michigan vs USC in the Rose would still be possible.  And it would be a nice new pairing of SEC vs PAC in the Fiesta. 
.
Idk, another little wrinkle....they'd all be playoff games anyway, and dwarfed in the larger picture.  Playing conferences instead of seeding the teams.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #94 on: May 12, 2021, 11:41:09 AM »
If, say, Nebraska won the B1G and had their choice of Rose or Orange in a playoff setup, would there be that nostalgic feeling to choose the OB over the RB?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #95 on: May 12, 2021, 12:00:35 PM »
possibly for some older fans........

for myself and I assume the majority of fans and administration........... rather get another crack at a win in the Rose.  2 appearances, 2 losses.  Obviously, UNL has a few OB victories.  I also assume the Rose would be the preference because it's more of a Big Ten thing and we'd like to fit in to the tradition better.
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Cincydawg

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #96 on: May 12, 2021, 12:11:35 PM »
I like seeing UGA going back to the Rose Bowl, first since 1942.  (1943?).  Unusual event.


FearlessF

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Re: The League of 15
« Reply #97 on: May 12, 2021, 01:15:15 PM »
Husker's first bowl appearance was the 1940 Rose vs Stanford

Coach Biff Jones’ Cornhuskers led Clark Shaughnessy’s Stanford Indians twice in the first half, but fell victim to the innovative T-formation 21-13. The Huskers took a 7-0 lead just six plays after the kickoff when fullback Vike Francis plunged over from the two. Stanford tied it four plays later when Hugh Gallarneau bolted over from nine yards out.

In the second quarter, the Huskers took the lead again on a 33-yard Herm Rohrig-to-Allen Zikmund pass, but the Indians came back on Frankie Albert’s 40-yard TD pass to Gallarneau for a 14-13 halftime lead. A 39-yard TD punt return by Pete Kmetovic iced the game for the Indians in the third quarter.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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