header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: The League of 15

 (Read 4456 times)

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12238
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #70 on: May 10, 2021, 10:28:37 AM »
I may have missed it, but has anyone here advocating for a 6+1+1 eight-team playoff included a no-rematch caveat for the 1 at-large team? 
Say Wisconsin is in line to be the at-large team, but they’ve already lost to who they’d face in the playoff, so they’d be passed over.  Would most of you want that?
Or even extend it to the at-large can’t have a loss to any playoff team?
Thoughts?
No. That defeats the purpose of at-large.

Often the at-large team will have one slip-up, and that slip-up might be, for example, a very tight road game against an 11-1 division rival (with a worse loss) who made it to the CCG while they stayed home at 11-1. The conference rival wins the CCG to get to 12-1 and the auto-bid, but the committee thinks that on a neutral field, that 11-1 team that they beat might just be the better team and is certainly worthy of an at-large bid. 

Heck, imagine LSU takes an OOC loss against a respectable team, a head-scratching loss to Ole Miss, but they beat Bama by a walkoff FG after a Bama player extends that drive on a 4th down stop by, say, throwing an opponent's shoe. Both teams finish with 7-1 conference records but LSU is 10-2 and Bama is 11-1. LSU goes to the CCG and wins it. 

Is the SEC going to be happy having Bama excluded because they might potentially face LSU, a team that almost everyone in the country thinks they're better than?


OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #71 on: May 10, 2021, 10:44:54 AM »
I just thought 2011 was the impetus for all of this. 
You're going to tell LSU it has to beat Alabama again?  Is that any more fair? 

Over the past few years, I've been led to believe here that if a team doesn't win its division, it doesn't deserve jack squat.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #72 on: May 10, 2021, 10:46:43 AM »
nope, I still prefer the 2-team playoff
I was asking the 6+1 at-large + 1 G5 champ advocates.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 11249
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #73 on: May 10, 2021, 10:55:30 AM »
Where are you getting the 6? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12238
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #74 on: May 10, 2021, 10:56:02 AM »
I just thought 2011 was the impetus for all of this. 
You're going to tell LSU it has to beat Alabama again?  Is that any more fair? 
It's one thing when you have 5 power conferences comprising >60 teams, most of whom rarely play each other, and your SINGLE championship game is a rematch between two teams from the same conference. That year, even if Bama was a better team than OkSU, I think the collective opinion of everyone outside SEC territory was that the "fair" option in a 2-team playoff was to let someone else have a crack at LSU. 

In an 8-team playoff, I think we understand that rematches might be inevitable. I would suggest that the committee should do what it can with seeding to avoid rematches or even games between two teams from the same conference in the quarterfinals, but that might not even be possible some years (or may screw up the seeding too badly). 

So yeah, 2011 was the impetus, but not purely out of an "avoid rematches" mindset--it was "if we can only put two teams in, THEN we should avoid rematches".

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #75 on: May 10, 2021, 11:41:51 AM »
Where are you getting the 6?
You're right, sorry.....the 6+2 at-large.  Sorry, in my mind I put the highest G5 in as a conference champ, so there'd be 6 of those.  Just a brain fart on the 6+1+1.
Regardless, if someone wants the 8 team playoff with G5 inclusion and at-large births, do they want the not-if-you-already-had-your-shot anti-rematch caveat.
I assume there'd be something like that irl.

5+2+1 = 6+2 :)
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #76 on: May 10, 2021, 11:49:45 AM »
It's one thing when you have 5 power conferences comprising >60 teams, most of whom rarely play each other, and your SINGLE championship game is a rematch between two teams from the same conference. That year, even if Bama was a better team than OkSU, I think the collective opinion of everyone outside SEC territory was that the "fair" option in a 2-team playoff was to let someone else have a crack at LSU.

In an 8-team playoff, I think we understand that rematches might be inevitable. I would suggest that the committee should do what it can with seeding to avoid rematches or even games between two teams from the same conference in the quarterfinals, but that might not even be possible some years (or may screw up the seeding too badly).

So yeah, 2011 was the impetus, but not purely out of an "avoid rematches" mindset--it was "if we can only put two teams in, THEN we should avoid rematches".
Hmm.
Do you think there'd be a rule against both at-larges coming from the same conference?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12238
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #77 on: May 10, 2021, 12:04:23 PM »
Hmm.
Do you think there'd be a rule against both at-larges coming from the same conference?
It's an interesting question... You have 10 conferences, and I'm guessing to move you'd have a couple different groups:

  • All of the G5 would likely be in "we're just happy to be included" mode, so they'll back whatever they think is more likely to get a 5+1+2 over the finish line.
  • The ACC/B12/PAC will definitely be for a limit on at-large teams, because they know they can't support 3 teams at that level. However, they also may be in "happy to be included" mode because in the current system, 1 conference will be frozen out every year, and often 2. Possibly even 3 if you get 2 SEC + Notre Dame. But I think they'll make a stink over limiting at-large to one team per conference.
  • The SEC will be adamant about there being no limit. They'll push the idea that the at-large should be the two best remaining teams, regardless of ANY conference affiliation/etc.
  • The B1G could go either way. I think they may have a pipe dream of sending OSU+UM+UW/PSU and filling three teams out of eight. But I'm not sure whether cooler heads who recognize how unlikely that is would prevail.

In the end, my guess is that there will be enough pressure to guarantee conference champs and guarantee a G5 team that the groups wanting to limit at-large to one team per conference will give that up, because they're getting more than they're losing.


OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #78 on: May 10, 2021, 01:04:38 PM »
I love doing scenarios with 2012, because the rankings are SEC-heavy, you have ND at the top, undefeated OSU on probation, and the PAC champ ranked below a team in its division. 
2012 8-team playoff (5 conf champs, 2 at-large, 1 G5)
.
SEC Champ - Alabama (2)
ACC Champ - Florida St (13)
B1G Champ - Wisconsin (UR)
XII Champ - Kansas St (7)
PAC Champ - Stanford (8)
Highest G5 - Northern Illinois (16)
-----------------------------------------
So before we add in the 2 at-large teams, in our 8-team playoff, we don't yet have #1, 3, 4, 5, or 6.  We have #16.  We have an unranked team.  Absolutely, this is a unique season, but look at it.  We'd have created a system like this, with these results, ON PURPOSE.
Obviously, our first at-large is #1 Notre Dame.  Cool.
Now for the other:
3 - n/a Ohio St (probation)
4 - Florida (didn't win its division)
5 - Oregon (didn't win its division)
6 - Georgia (won its division, but dropped from 3 to 6 for losing to Alabama in the SECCG)
Now, the purpose of this isn't to nitpick the 2nd at-large team, but to see where it's at among the other automatic bids.
No matter who is chosen here, they're the 3 seed.
1 seed ND (1) vs 8 seed Wis (UR)
4 seed K-State (7) vs 5 seed Stanford (8)
2 seed Alabama (2) vs 7 seed NIU (16)
3 seed Florida? (4) vs 6 seed FSU (13)
.
The matchups are fine, that's not my focus.  We want? a system that excludes what may be the 4th, 5th, and 6th-best teams for ones that may be the 13th, 16th, and 26th+ (the 4-5-6 if you just pretend OSU isn't there).
I'm not okay with that.  Maybe if like they did with the BCS, if you had a lower-bound ranking for conference champs, I could get on board, at least for the P5 teams.
Whether it's 12th or 15th or whatever, we need a minimum ranking, don't we? 

.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2021, 01:10:57 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #79 on: May 10, 2021, 01:10:02 PM »
So that was a lot of blah-blah on my part to simply ask:  do you think there should be a lower-bound minimum ranking for the P5 conference champs (the 5 of  the 5+1+2 model)?
I'd insist on it, but no one asks me.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71734
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #80 on: May 10, 2021, 01:15:04 PM »
You can insist on it, or anything else, if you wish.

It's all theoretical, using the term loosely.  Perhaps hypothetical is better.

When discussing such a thing, I personally start with either a problem definition, or a goal, kind of the same thing really.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12238
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #81 on: May 10, 2021, 01:17:59 PM »
So that was a lot of blah-blah on my part to simply ask:  do you think there should be a lower-bound minimum ranking for the P5 conference champs (the 5 of  the 5+1+2 model)?
I'd insist on it, but no one asks me.
We've discussed that at length.

Some people in favor of 5+1+2 are in favor of it. Some are not. 

I personally am not in favor of a lower bound. I hate the idea that your conference championship matters--right up until you don't pass some arbitrary beauty pageant metric that's completely out of your control. 

That said, I understand the argument of those who are in favor. They don't want worthy teams excluded for the inclusion of OBVIOUSLY unworthy teams...

My take is outside of the top G5 team, the "obviously unworthy" category will be pretty small most years. 2012 Wisconsin is a special case because of OSU/PSU being on probation. How often do we really have an unranked P5 champ, ESPECIALLY now in the days of the CCG?

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #82 on: May 10, 2021, 01:38:58 PM »
. How often do we really have an unranked P5 champ, ESPECIALLY now in the days of the CCG?
This is a good thought, especially that mathematically, the CCG should yield some upsets - certainly more than have actually happened.

I don't think you can avoid the beauty-pageant aspect, though.  If a team is ranked 2nd and loses its CCG, it could very well still get in.  Another team with the same record could be ranked 6th and a loss in their CCG is damning.

Hell, any conference with the #1 team facing another in the top 10 in their CCG should have the top team forfeit in order to guarantee 2 of theirs gets in the playoff.  I know, I know, that's silly, OAM.  Would never happen.  But it's another case of incentivising something ugly.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18907
  • Liked:
Re: The League of 15
« Reply #83 on: May 10, 2021, 01:42:16 PM »
Ohh, what about P5 conference champs can only be in the playoff if they're ranked ahead of the top G5 champ?  I like that.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.