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Topic: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages

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ftbobs

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #182 on: May 29, 2020, 02:36:50 PM »
Name a "best" team that was left out of the CFP.

No way to tell because "best" is subjective.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #183 on: May 29, 2020, 02:37:56 PM »
Then what are you complaining about!?!?!

The committee is tasked to identify the best team within the 4 in the playoff.  Do you believe, in any year from 2014-2019, that the best team (gasp - subjective term) was ranked 5th or worst by the committee?  That's a genuine question.
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ftbobs

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #184 on: May 29, 2020, 02:40:55 PM »
Yeesh, we're throwing propaganda around?  Mkay.

The term "4 best teams" that everyone seems to have a hissy fit about simply means the top 4 teams of the consensus of the body of stakeholders tasked to do so.
Instead of the old days of strong regional bias (like you still see with the Heisman voting) by media members, they've done a great job of creating a mix of people for the committee.  They meet face-to-face and have to support their opinions - they have to be persuasive instead of cowardly mailing in their anonymous list.

It's far superior to anything before it and has nothing to do with propaganda.  Now, here's the thing:  they absolutely may be incorrect in determining the best 4 teams.  BUT - since there is no actual way to do that, getting a consensus of a mix of stakeholders is honestly the very best next thing.

I'm not criticizing the committee for how they do it, I'm pointing out because of their shoddy history of determining the "best" team, they should limit the subjectivity as much as possible.  Winning the conference is an objective measure.  Limit the subjectivity by dropping teams who can't do that.  Claiming that you can determine "the four best teams", is nothing but propaganda.

ftbobs

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #185 on: May 29, 2020, 02:41:46 PM »
Then what are you complaining about!?!?!

The committee is tasked to identify the best team within the 4 in the playoff.  Do you believe, in any year from 2014-2019, that the best team (gasp - subjective term) was ranked 5th or worst by the committee?  That's a genuine question.

I'm saying that teams that don't win their conference should not be included.  I may not be the best communicator, but I'm pretty sure I stated that.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #186 on: May 29, 2020, 02:51:50 PM »
"Best" will always be subjective.
It's of course not 100% subjective.  I think everyone would agree on say ten teams that are plausible candidates, and the top three are generally pretty clear.  That fourth spot gets subjective when comparing 4 and 5 and perhaps 6, but 7 and down aren't really  subjective assessments.

I would not tie their hands to only accepting conference champs because some year somewhere there will be a situation with three three loss conference champs and two obviously very good one loss teams.  I think emphasis should on winning your conference, and I think they do that adequately.  It's worth about half a win.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #187 on: May 29, 2020, 02:52:45 PM »
Name a "best" team that was left out of the CFP.
  • I'd say Baylor/TCU could make an argument in 2014. Nobody believed FSU was all that good that year, but there was no way the committee would exclude a 13-0 team, so they came in and got curb-stomped by Oregon.
  • 2015 I'm not sure which one was excluded, but Michigan State certainly wasn't one of the best 4. 
  • 2018 Ohio State could make an argument. After all, Notre Dame is perennially overrated and there's no way that the committee wouldn't select them at 12-0, and then they were exposed (as always happens with ND) badly. They had one bad upset, but I don't think that reflects on the quality of that team.

Now, I'm not saying that any of those teams would have won it all, but I'm sure there are a few that should have been in the conversation.


Cincydawg

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #188 on: May 29, 2020, 02:56:35 PM »
Yeah, they won't ever leave out a 13-0 P5 team even if they won a lousy P5 conference and beat some bad P5 team OOC.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #189 on: May 29, 2020, 02:56:57 PM »
Then what are you complaining about!?!?!

The committee is tasked to identify the best team within the 4 in the playoff.  Do you believe, in any year from 2014-2019, that the best team (gasp - subjective term) was ranked 5th or worst by the committee?  That's a genuine question.
They're tasked with identifying the best of the 4, and that team gets the 1 seed.


You'd think that if they're seeding properly, there should be a somewhat steep dropoff between 1 and 4. Yet the 4 has won 33% of those 1 vs 4 matchups, and in both cases went on to win it all. 

If there's not a steep enough dropoff between 1 and 4, how can you claim that the dropoff between 4 and 5 is steep enough to justify exclusion? 



Cincydawg

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #190 on: May 29, 2020, 03:03:34 PM »
The drop between 4 and 5 will be slight, generally, same as with 5 and 6, and 6 and 7, and so on.

If we had an 8 team playoff ....

CWSooner

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #191 on: May 29, 2020, 04:07:26 PM »
But even that "objective" assigning of a champion isn't possible today in college football.  The inequities among conferences and schedules are too vast. 
You'd need the P5 to split off from the rest.
You'd need the P5 to become the P4 (basically an ACC/Big12 merger)
You'd need the remaining 4 conferences to have the same number of teams and scheduling guidelines (yes/no vs FCS, if so how many, yes/no vs G5, if so how many, etc).

Even then, you SHOULD go a step further and include:
every team has 6 home/6 away games
every team plays every other team in its conference/if not that, then division/if not that, then pod
and then you'd still have co-champions, which would be determined by h2h, but statistically that's erroneous...

So in lieu of all that happening, I don't see the point of pretending it exists or will exist.
It is objective.
It might not be fair or accurate, but it is objective.  You win your conference, by rules in place before the season starts, and you are in the playoff.
As I've said, I'd vote for going back to bowls and polls.
In the absence of that, I'd like to see winning your conference either be a pre-requisite (for a 2- or 4-team playoff) or an automatic entry (for a 6-team playoff).

I don't like mandated uniformity in conference size and scheduling philosophy.  The NFL provides that for people who like such things.
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CWSooner

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #192 on: May 29, 2020, 04:11:03 PM »
I think the voters would have put OU #1 if they had won their bowl.  And Florida possibly, but they were on probation.
I think you are right.
NBC, televising the Orange Bowl, was definitely promoting that angle.
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CWSooner

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #193 on: May 29, 2020, 04:19:06 PM »
I agree. It’s why all pro sports leagues have objective measures and all college sports (at least that I know of) have some degree of subjectivity.  In the NFL this season teams in the same division will play 14 of their 16 games against common opponents or each other. 

Now take Nebraska and Michigan. Only 6 of their 12 games are against common opponents and they  don’t play each other, and these are teams in the same conference.
I don't want CFB to be like the NFL.

I don't care about the NFL (other than wanting former Sooners to do well).  I care about college football, and it moving closer to the NFL model makes me care about it less (if anything) rather than more.
The NFL is there for fans who want an expanded, extended playoff.  Why can't big-time college football be a different animal?
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FearlessF

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #194 on: May 29, 2020, 04:28:46 PM »
Yeah, they won't ever leave out a 13-0 P5 team even if they won a lousy P5 conference and beat some bad P5 team OOC.
so, there is some propaganda to this process?
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Helmets (and near helmets) rolling 10-year winning percentages
« Reply #195 on: May 29, 2020, 04:57:59 PM »
I don't think it's propaganda, it is more what we always notice, the rankings start with fewest losses for P5 teams and then make some minor adjustments down the line.  A 13-0 P5 team will be in the polls at 1 or 2 if there are no others no matter how bad their wins look in comparison.  A 12-1 team MIGHT get ranked over them, maybe, at times.  Of course, with polls, any loss by an undefeated team is going to drop the in the top ten rankings, and you won't be able to recover to pass an undefeated team in most cases.

An exception would have to be remarkable, say UGA beats Texas, Clemson, and Georgia Tech in one season OOC but drops a conference game to USCe and then finished 12-1, presuming those three OOC opponents are 12-1, 11-2, and 9-3.

 

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