Lies, Damn Lies, and . . .
I've said for a long time that the statistic I would most like to see added to Box Scores is "Median Rush".
For those unfamiliar with statistics, the average yards per carry is simply the total rushing yards divided by the total number of carries.
The problem with averages is that they can be skewed by outliers. For example, according to Google, Elon Musk is the wealthiest individual in the world with a net worth of $219.9 Billion. So it would almost certainly be accurate for me to say that the average wealth of Elon Musk and I and the last eight people to comment in this thread is about $22 Billion each. It is also extraordinarily misleading because none of us are worth anywhere close to $22 Billion. Elon Musk is worth 10x that and the rest of us each have a net worth that rounds to zero if rounded to the nearest Billion.
I bring this up because I was looking at Michigan's rushing statistics in the last two editions of The Game:
- 2021: 41 for 297, 7.2 yards per carry average
- 2022: 35 for 252, 7.2 yards per carry average.
In each case they had two kneel-downs each for a loss of one so if you exclude those you get:
- 2021: 39 for 299, 7.7 yards per carry average
- 2022: 33 for 254, 7.7 yards per carry average.
Just looking at averages it *LOOKS* like nothing much changed. Michigan hit the same 7.2/7.7 per carry and just bullied tOSU. I (and most tOSU fans) would absolutely agree with that assessment of the 2021 game but it is HIGHLY misleading wrt the 2022 game. Lets look at the Median:
- 2021: Median of 6
- 2022: Median of 3
The median is the yards gained on the middle carry (or if there are an even number of carries, the average of the one below and the one above the middle). Ie, in this case and excluding the two kneel-downs each year:
- 2021: Michigan had 19 carries of 5 yards or less, six carries of exactly 6 yards, and 14 carries of more than 6 yards
- 2022: Michigan had 16 carries of 2 yards or less, four carries of exactly 3 yards, and 13 carries of more than 3 yards.
The averages are the same but the medians are VERY different because the games were very different. In 2021 Ohio State only held Michigan to a loss or no gain on two out of 39 carries, roughly one in 20. In 2022 Ohio State held Michigan to a loss or no gain on eight out of 33 carries, roughly one in four.
In a related note, Ohio State effectively stifled the Michigan rushing attack in the 2022 game up until the very end. Here are the first 28 carries in the two years:
- 2021: 28 for 206, 7.4 yards per carry
- 2022: 28 for 85, 3.0 yards per carry.
In order to do that Ohio State had to make trade-offs. The tOSU defense played the bulk of the 2022 game without any safeties deep. That directly led to Michigan crushing Ohio State with long plays because basically every time a single Ohio State defender missed the Wolverine was off to the races with no Buckeyes in position to prevent the TD.
One illustration of this is that in 2021 Michigan had nine carries of between 11 and 55 yards. In 2022 they only had two. Why, well because in 2022 most runs were stopped WAY before they got to 11 yards but the few that weren't went all the way.
