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College Football Nerds had an interesting preview. Their model picks Michigan but both nerds picked Ohio State.

They picked Ohio State because Michigan's offense has curiously and dramatically underperformed ever since Stalions was dismissed. The nerds surmise that the sign stealing propped up Michigan and that without it the Wolverines will continue to struggle.

What I find interesting about this is that I'm not sure Stalions was stealing signs from the crappy teams in the conference. That's spending energy and budget on teams that don't pose a legitimate threat to Michigan anyway. I.e. they can annihilate Purdue whether they have Purdue's signs or not. 

Seems to me that the only signs worth stealing were PSU and OSU. So the sample size of the first 9 games of the season might have been "Michigan's offense was performing really well because they were playing patsies", not "Michigan's offense was performing really well because they had the patsies' signs."

What I find interesting about this is that I'm not sure Stalions was stealing signs from the crappy teams in the conference. That's spending energy and budget on teams that don't pose a legitimate threat to Michigan anyway. I.e. they can annihilate Purdue whether they have Purdue's signs or not.

Seems to me that the only signs worth stealing were PSU and OSU. So the sample size of the first 9 games of the season might have been "Michigan's offense was performing really well because they were playing patsies", not "Michigan's offense was performing really well because they had the patsies' signs."

I think this is far more likely. 

So really, we only have a sample size of 1 when it comes to results-- the PSU game.

Not entirely disagreeing but the fact that they were playing patsies was already accounted for by the spread.

But it does imply that there are no meaningful statistics to be taken from any game other than PSU, and since that's a sample of one, well...

Not entirely disagreeing but the fact that they were playing patsies was already accounted for by the spread.

Michigan is 5-5-1 against the spread this year. I don't know the breakdown of which games and whether they happened before the scandal broke or not or after...

This would make sense if they never bothered to steal the signs of the weaker teams though. 

I thought there was evidence of Stallions at Purdue games?

I think so, but I think his tickets were on the Purdue sideline, ie filming Purdue's opponent 

Michigan is 5-5-1 against the spread this year. I don't know the breakdown of which games and whether they happened before the scandal broke or not or after...

This would make sense if they never bothered to steal the signs of the weaker teams though.

The scandal broke just before they played Michigan State. 

by the way, it has been printed that stallions stole the signs of every single known Michigan opponent, including each Big Ten team and Bowling Green.  don’t know if that’s true or not but that’s what the investigation details said.

honestly I think Michigan’s challenging part of their schedule was in the back half the As opposed to front half.  I have actually been impressed with their play because they have found a way to even murder the other team or at least control the line of scrimmage in such a way that I never thought they were in danger of losing      It’s a damn good football team

Is that true or did the articles state that he bought tickets to all other conference stadiums? I'm not sure that I've heard he had folks scouting the patsies. If you've seen that, let me know.

If it's just that he bought tickets to all 13 conference opponents but it was only to scout the future opponents that mattered (MSU/PSU/OSU) when they were the visiting team, that would still make sense.

https://www.tag24.com/sports/football/college-football/college-football-big-ten-coaches-make-push-to-punish-michigan-3000500

This one says CONFIRMED to have bought tickets in 12 of 13 Big ten stadiums.  Also potential SEC playoff ( potential) opponents. 

Remember- this goes back to the beginning of 21 season. 

I read in several places that they scouted Ohio State eight times ( if you include the additional planned scouting of Ohio State this season) and Penn State four times. 

so to your point they definitely spent more energy on the tougher teams.  But I don’t think they didn’t scout the weaker teams because it sure looks like they did