I'm coming back to my theme that the problem Saturday wasn't the defense, it was the offense. Yes, the defense wasn't perfect but they played well enough to win, the offense didn't.
Things that happen at the end of games can skew the stats and give a misleading picture. Michigan's rushing on Saturday is a great example of this. For the game Michigan had 35 carries for 252 yards and 3 TD's on an average of 7.2 per carry. It sounds like they ran it down tOSU's throat all game long. The thing is that Michigan's last two TD's were runs of 75 and 85 yards. Take those away and Michigan's rushing totals were 33 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD on an average of 2.8 per carry.
Now I know that you can't just subtract a couple plays and say "see, great!". However, I don't blame the defense for what happened on those two plays. The defense took a calculated risk that they HAD to take based on the situation in the game.
The situation:
Ohio State kicked a FG to make it a one-score game at 31-23. That IS a one score game but it requires a LOT. Ohio State has to stop Michigan, score a TD, make the two point conversion, and win in OT. Michigan got the ball on the 25 from a touchback after the FG. The ball was snapped with 7:11 remaining. In theory tOSU could give up a first down or two and still get the ball back with enough time to score but that puts EVERYTHING on the 2 point conversion. What Ohio State really needs here is a three-and-out. Even at that, Michigan will likely burn 1-1/2 to 2 minutes just running three times so IF Ohio State forces a three-and-out they likely get the ball back with a little over five minutes to play. By forcing a three-and-out Ohio State would potentially have an insurance policy in case they fail to convert the 2 point conversion.
Thus, I simply don't blame Knowles / the defense for putting basically everybody on the line in this situation. They feel like they almost HAVE to get a three-and-out so there really isn't any point in having a layered defense that could have tackled Edwards 15-20 yards down the field because once he gets the first down the game is almost certainly lost anyway so lets fight to stop him cold.
The second situation:
This one isn't even debatable. Michigan was up by two scores (15 points, 38-23) and got the ball from an INT at their own 8. The first down snap was with 4:11 to go and they gained six yards. At this point the game is almost certainly lost no matter what but the only chance Ohio State has is to force a three-and-out and get the ball back with MAYBE 2 minutes left needing two TD's, one XP, and a 2pt conversion. At that point you HAVE to stack the line and they did:
- 1st and 10 at the 8 with 4:11 to go, Edwards for 6
- 2nd and 4 at the 14 with 3:31 to go, Edwards for 1
- 3rd and 3 at the 15 with 3:19 to go (after a tOSU timeout), Edwards for an 85 yard TD.
The TD there matters for style points but as far as the outcome of the game is concerned Ohio State's last remotely plausible chance was gone as soon as Edwards crossed the 18 and had the first down. At that point there was <3 minutes to go, Michigan led by two scores, and tOSU had already used at least one timeout. Whether Edwards gets tackled at the Michigan 20 for a five yard gain or runs 80 more yards for a TD is completely irrelevant. Ohio State's last chance evaporated when he crossed the 18. Everything after that is academic.
Per the above, I really don't blame the tOSU defense for the above two plays because they simply took a calculated risk that they HAD to take based on the game situation.
Here is why I blame the offense:
In the first half the buckeyes had the following drives:
- 12 plays, 81 yards, TD
- 10 plays, 58 yards, FG (got to 1st and 10 at the M 15, gained one yard on three plays and kicked the FG)
- 8 plays, 36 yards, downs (got to 4th and 2 at the M 34 and failed to pick it up)
- 4 plays, 21 yards, punt
- 6 plays, 41 yards, FG (got to 2nd and 6 at the 24 then went backwards 5 yards and kicked the FG)
- 4 plays, 79 yards, TD
- 3 plays, 6 yards, punt
In that first half the Buckeye defense did what was asked of them. They stopped Michigan from running the ball. I think Michigan had 10 yards on 11 carries in the first half. They did give up two long passing TD's because they were crowding the line so if a guy got behind the defense or broke a tackle it was a TD but that is the trade-off for completely stopping Michigan's running game.
Not counting the two yard loss to kneel down at the end of the first half, tOSU outgained M 322-204 in the first half. The problem is efficiency. Michigan scored 17 points on 204 yards (1 point per 12 yards). Ohio State scored 20 points on 322 yards (1 point per 16.1 yards). The Ohio State offense was mostly productive in the first half but they just didn't get enough points for their efforts. If they'd have operated at the efficiency of the Michigan offense (1 points per 12 yards) they'd have had roughly 27 points. Turning the two FG's into TD's would have given the Buckeyes a two-score lead at 28-17.
As much criticism as there has been of Jim Knowles apparent Don Brown impersonation, I have to assume that the Buckeyes would have backed into a more normal defense if they had managed to achieve a lead large enough that they would have been in a position to trade yards for time. If Ohio State scores another seven or eight points in the first half they are just about there entering the third quarter.
Then there is the Buckeyes offense in the second half. They scored three freaking points. Yes, the defense gave up 28 but only 14 of those were while the game was still reasonably contested. What happened after that is academic.
I really don't blame Stroud / the offense for the picks on the last two possessions. Those had more to do with the desperate game situation than anything else. It makes sense to play fast-and-loose when you are in a desperate situation because you really don't have anything to lose. The problem came before that. On the second half drives the Buckeyes had:
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 9 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
- 7 plays, 52 yards, FG
- 10 plays, 59 yards, INT
- 4 plays, 12 yards, INT
By the time the offense finally got in gear in the second half the damage had already been done. The 52 yard FG drive cut the lead to 8 but it was still a bad situation. On Michigan's first four drives of the second half they did have two TD's but the other two were a three-and-out and a missed FG. If Ohio State's offense had done AMYTHING with their first three drives (even just a FG) it would have been a game.
Stroud threw for 349 yards and Ohio State ran for almost 150 at 4.9 per carry. How the F do you manage to gain almost 500 yards of offense without scoring 24 points? For the game Michigan ended up with 45 points on 530 yards while Ohio State ended up with 23 points on 492 yards. Michigan scored one point every 11.8 yards, Ohio State scored one point every 21.4 yards.
My conclusion is that while you can maybe blame the loss on the defense, the blowout is on the offense. If the offense had simply scored an average amount of points per yard it would have been a tight game to the end. Then it is anybodys game to win and I'll take those odds with Stroud as my QB and Marvin Harrison as my #1 WR.
