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Topic: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
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FearlessF · « **Reply #350 on:** November 25, 2024, 11:14:15 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 10:47:27 AM

I do still think one can do OK betting the underdog in bowl games.

you seem to have a few dollars of disposable income available
give it a try for 3 or 4 seasons and give us a full report

Heck, I have buddies that bet using an app on their phone at a couple dollars a game, just for the fun

FearlessF · « **Reply #351 on:** November 25, 2024, 11:15:20 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on November 25, 2024, 09:55:41 AM

I mean, this is why it’s good we have a playoff that lets in teams like 11-1 Indiana if they get there.

and teams like 9-3 Bama

bayareabadger · « **Reply #352 on:** November 25, 2024, 11:21:28 AM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 25, 2024, 10:38:23 AM

I suspect if this were true, people with real money to throw down on wagering would be exploiting it to the point where Vegas would have to stop doing it.

You don't think there are Wall Street quant types who could access 5+ years of Vegas line/result history and look for arbitrage opportunities like this?

Hell, you don't think that the big sportsbooks EMPLOY Wall Street quant types who are analyzing their own line/result history looking to make sure that there aren't any "blind spots" in their own setting of the lines that are easily exploitable with a system like "bet against Big Name teams and you can't go wrong!"?

Oh, we’re already there. Outsiders started developing better, power ratings, and then Las Vegas just absorbed them.

Something that always makes me laugh is I will listen to a certain podcast and when they talk about funky looking lines, they will describe them as “Vegas knows something.”

And then I pull up FPI and SP+, And usually, I know what Vegas does too.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #353 on:** November 25, 2024, 11:53:16 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 10:47:27 AM

The point is that the betting line would be influenced by bettors who favored their team, say ND, in numbers sufficient to render the line unbalanced vs "reality". I'm sure the Vegas boys understand this and set initial lines accordingly, if it's real. Let's take ND-USC, MAYBE they know ND gets a preference with bettors, so the line would have been say -5, but they set it at -6 by understand that ND bettors over play their team. Then when the excess bets come in on ND to win, they don't have to readjust much.

My point is not how Vegas judges real lines, but how bettors on certain teams MAY over populate betting on their team.

I do still think one can do OK betting the underdog in bowl games.

I understand the point.

I'm not sure you understand just how massive sports betting is as a business.

IMHO the number of people betting without fandom / a rooting interest in any given college football game >>>>>>>>>>>> the number of those who have a rooting interest in the game.

And if the fandom really influenced the setting of lines, the sharps would know that and exploit it.

The idea that Vegas sets lines "too high" when big name teams face nobodies is common, and ostensibly logical, but I think it collapses under very little scrutiny.

FearlessF · « **Reply #354 on:** November 25, 2024, 11:55:07 AM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 25, 2024, 11:53:16 AM

And if the fandom really influenced the setting of lines, the sharps would know that and exploit it.

they do and they do

Cincydawg · « **Reply #355 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:05:22 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 25, 2024, 11:14:15 AM

you seem to have a few dollars of disposable income available
give it a try for 3 or 4 seasons and give us a full report

Heck, I have buddies that bet using an app on their phone at a couple dollars a game, just for the fun

I've done it in the past on paper, and won three times in a row, but my winnings might be $20.

FearlessF · « **Reply #356 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:08:13 PM »

it's uncanny how well it works on paper

then you call the bookie and WHAMO!

Cincydawg · « **Reply #357 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:08:20 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 25, 2024, 11:53:16 AM

And if the fandom really influenced the setting of lines, the sharps would know that and exploit it.

My point is I think the sharps DO exploit it.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #358 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:19:32 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 12:08:20 PM

My point is I think the sharps DO exploit it.

So you think:

There is a very simple, easily exploitable, betting strategy that will statistically win often enough to outperform the vig.
The big-money sharps know and are exploiting this.
Somehow the money the big-money sharps are betting is so small, despite being "easy money", that it's just statistical noise so the oddsmakers don't do anything about it.

Fair restatement of your point?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #359 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:26:22 PM »

No, I do not think it "easily exploitable". I think if it exists, it probably inside the vig. The sharps would know for sure, but they could well have experience that teams like ND get more action than teams like Arkansas, and the action is, in part, biased by fandom. So, some percentage of bets on ND is influenced because their fans are numerous and think highly of their team. The sharps then set the opening line with this in mind expecting to get some initial emotional money, and then over the week the line creeps down a bit as smart money comes in.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #360 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:37:37 PM »

What percentage of the money bet on say Notre Dame is by ND fans versus folks who just wager on anything? Let's say it's half, that probably is too high. Let's further say half these fans over value ND and see a line of say 10 points and think "We'll clobber Indiana by more than that, here's $100 on ND."

I think that does happen, I don't know the extent. My premise is the line might get set at 11 because of this, when 10 is really the right line. At 11, betting comes in still for ND while the nonpartisan bettors think it's too high, and then it drifts down to 10 or 9.5.

Maybe.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #361 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:41:33 PM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on November 25, 2024, 09:07:58 AM

Speaking of odds, likely that right now OSU would be a favorite over every team on every field

Um

https://youtu.be/xagjS7zWGAM

FearlessF · « **Reply #362 on:** November 25, 2024, 12:45:28 PM »

not sure why Ohio St. would be favored over Oregon on Oregon's field

847badgerfan · « **Reply #363 on:** November 25, 2024, 02:39:40 PM »

I guess Indiana is serious about football.

https://twitter.com/Jared_Kelly7/status/1861093777286328760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1861093777286328760%7Ctwgr%5E06435abcb5f4247fa0fd622797d1c370964433bb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fwisconsin%2Fboard%2F23%2Fcontents%2F2026-football-recruiting-thread-224440385%2F%3Fpage%3D1

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Topic: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)

FearlessF

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FearlessF

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bayareabadger

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betarhoalphadelta

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FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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MrNubbz

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FearlessF

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847badgerfan

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