"Vegas" isn't predicting outcomes, they're setting lines to get even betting on each side so the house makes money both ways. This has always been among the silliest arguments sports fans choose to engage in. I'll leave you to it.
I don't think it's silly at all.
Vegas sets lines to get equal action on both sides. Another way to describe that is getting a consensus.
A consensus with skin in the game, which means they're taking it seriously.
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Now, let's move on from Texas/IU, as they have equal records. Let's do Bama/IU, just to prove a point.
Bama could very well be favored in a hypothetical matchup with IU. I'd say it probably would be, despite that game vs OU, lol.
That by itself isn't enough to leapfrog a 3-loss team over a 1-loss team. I get a lot of flack here for not valuing the game results for some reason, which I've never understood. I simply advocate for taking it all into account. Maybe there can be enough context that a 3-loss team be ranked ahead of a 1-loss team (it happens all the time with helmets vs G5 programs).
If Vegas favors the 3-loss team, that just tells me it's worthwhile to have the conversation of which team is better. A team can be better/more talented/more stars/more high draft picks and yet have a trash resume compared to a team with a better record. And that betting line/talent advantage may not be enough to rank that team ahead of the 1-loss IU-type team.
Alabama is really good sometimes. Ole Miss is great sometimes. IU blew out a lot of teams, but didn't face many genuine threats this year. There's no crime in saying that. We saw the 153 total yardage effort vs OSU. Not a good look vs a strong team.
But there was a reason IU was a 10.5 dog vs OSU. As there is a reason Bama probably wouldn't be as big an underdog. Talent matters. Results matter. Ignoring losses isn't prudent, nor is ignoring one's own eyes.
Personally, I'd include a 10-1 (or 11-1) IU in the playoff over and 3-loss P4 team. That's a 2-loss difference. But when there is a 1-loss difference, to not even have the conversation is embarrassing and stupid imo. A 1-game difference between teams with very different schedule strengths is not enough of a difference. That you win IS important, but WHO you beat is also important. It's not an either/or thing and never has been. I haven't advocated for one without the other, just that pollsters tend to rank teams on even conference planes by number of losses, as a child might. That's not taking into consideration enough information and I will always always criticize it.