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Topic: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)

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Mdot21

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #308 on: November 24, 2024, 07:21:36 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 24, 2024, 07:18:35 PM
Vegas employs a lot of people
And what’s the Vegas line in a hypothetical Texas - IU game? Texas would be favored…
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #309 on: November 24, 2024, 07:21:38 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on November 24, 2024, 07:19:51 PM
"Vegas" isn't predicting outcomes, they're setting lines to get even betting on each side so the house makes money both ways.  This has always been among the silliest arguments sports fans choose to engage in.  I'll leave you to it.
Yeah but the stats that do predict outcomes also say the same thing.
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FearlessF

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #310 on: November 24, 2024, 07:22:12 PM »
hopefully, we'll get to enjoy a Horns/Hoosiers matchup in a month or so
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #311 on: November 24, 2024, 07:23:45 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 24, 2024, 07:21:36 PM
And what’s the Vegas line in a hypothetical Texas - IU game? Texas would be favored…
I am not saying Indiana would be favored over Texas. I am saying Indiana could very well be 10-1 against Texas's schedule, since Fro said they had no chance to do so against an SEC schedule.
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utee94

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #312 on: November 24, 2024, 07:24:57 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 07:22:12 PM
hopefully, we'll get to enjoy a Horns/Hoosiers matchup in a month or so
I'd love for Texas to get Indiana in the CFP.

But there's a couple steps for the Horns before that.  Texas is "favored" against A&M so that means it's a certain victory, apparently.
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #313 on: November 24, 2024, 08:01:23 PM »
Vegas basically just engages in witchcraft. They probably don't even watch the games
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #314 on: November 24, 2024, 08:08:24 PM »
Vegas balances bets so they never lose.
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FearlessF

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #315 on: November 24, 2024, 08:09:26 PM »
Well they attempt to do that 
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #316 on: November 24, 2024, 08:13:55 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2024, 08:08:24 PM
Vegas balances bets so they never lose.
Have to balance out Big Money Indiana
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #317 on: November 24, 2024, 08:15:15 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 24, 2024, 08:01:23 PM
Vegas basically just engages in witchcraft. They probably don't even watch the games
If you have a balanced book, you don't have a rooting interest. That is the goal.
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MaximumSam

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #318 on: November 24, 2024, 08:21:21 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 24, 2024, 08:15:15 PM
If you have a balanced book, you don't have a rooting interest. That is the goal.
Quite lucky of them to be able to do that picking numbers at random
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #319 on: November 24, 2024, 11:31:08 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 24, 2024, 06:57:12 PM
Well, to put it differently, Indiana would be favored over every single Texas opponent besides Georgia. So by the numbers, Indiana and Texas would have the same record.
I hope this is sarcasm.

In case it's not:
early in the year, Texas had a run of UTSA, ULM, MS ST, OU......a fairly easy stretch, from which they performed 4-0.  A stretch I doubt IU would have any trouble with as well, and would likely go 4-0.
Then the loss to UGA, which we'd all mostly agree would be a loss for IU as well.
But there here's the difference:
the next 4-game stretch is @Vandy, Florida, @Arkansas, and UK.  All underdogs, yes, but a trickier stretch.  Each data point (game) is more dangerous than any of the early stretch (except maybe OU/UK).  Consecutive, more-dangerous opponents matters.  Texas happened to go 4-0 in that stretch, and while IU may be favored in all four, I simply deem it unlikely that they'd make it through unscathed (maybe pretending UF wasn't a M*A*S*H unit that week).  

Do you disagree?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #320 on: November 24, 2024, 11:36:36 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 24, 2024, 07:23:45 PM
I am not saying Indiana would be favored over Texas. I am saying Indiana could very well be 10-1 against Texas's schedule, since Fro said they had no chance to do so against an SEC schedule.
To be fair, Texas hasn't exactly played "an SEC schedule" this year, either. 
Texas is 1st in the conference right now, and they played UGA, which is 2nd.
The Horns haven't (yet) played 3,4,5,6,7,8, or 9.
They played 10 on their 3rd-string QB and minus many other starters.
They played 11, 12, 13, 15, and 16.

We knew this before the season began - the 2 newbies' schedules were VERY different (Texas was given a pass compared to OU's slate).
Texas will play A&M, so that helps some....but Texas will not have faced a traditional, middle-of-the-road SEC schedule in 2024.


So if you get to nitpick my phrase, I get to further specify it.




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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

ELA

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Re: The Death Star Comes to Columbus (SOC Week 13)
« Reply #321 on: November 24, 2024, 11:38:39 PM »
Alabama would be favored against all but 5 schools, so they should probably still be safely in
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