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Topic: The CFP Era so far

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #56 on: December 27, 2019, 01:09:04 PM »
Given that an 8 team playoff would generate more money, I'm still surprised it hasn't happened.  I THINK the bowls have influence over what happens and are against it.
An 8-team playoff would definitely generate more money than the 4-team playoff but I do think there is a strong possibility that the overall amount of money generated by the sport as a whole might decrease because all of those OOC games would become exhibitions and nothing more.  As it stands now, Ohio State's game against Cincinnati was hugely important because a loss there *COULD* have kept Ohio State out of the CFP.  As it turned out this year it wouldn't have, but it *COULD* have.  Thus, the tOSU/Cincy game was hugely important to tOSU fans.  If the B1G Champion got an auto-bid then an early season game between tOSU and Bama wouldn't really matter much other than for seeding so who cares?  

utee94

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #57 on: December 27, 2019, 01:10:02 PM »
Yeah, I think the university presidents and conference commissioners are starting to line up behind the P5 champs auto-bid, and 3 at-large or 2+1 depending on how they want to approach the G5.

I'll also be shocked if they don't insert a "no single conference gets more than 2 teams in" clause.


utee94

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #58 on: December 27, 2019, 01:13:00 PM »
An 8-team playoff would definitely generate more money than the 4-team playoff but I do think there is a strong possibility that the overall amount of money generated by the sport as a whole might decrease because all of those OOC games would become exhibitions and nothing more.  As it stands now, Ohio State's game against Cincinnati was hugely important because a loss there *COULD* have kept Ohio State out of the CFP.  As it turned out this year it wouldn't have, but it *COULD* have.  Thus, the tOSU/Cincy game was hugely important to tOSU fans.  If the B1G Champion got an auto-bid then an early season game between tOSU and Bama wouldn't really matter much other than for seeding so who cares? 

Well first-off, I think college football players want to beat the other team no matter what.  And the bigger and badder the opponent, the more they want to win.  So I don't think there's much risk of those becoming exhibition games.

And second, I think the seeding will matter a GREAT deal because I think the first round is going to end up being played on the home team's campus.  So seeding will be based on W/L as well as SOS, which will also encourage teams to schedule TOUGH OOC matchups rather than layups.  

FearlessF

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #59 on: December 27, 2019, 01:24:25 PM »
Yeah, I think the university presidents and conference commissioners are starting to line up behind the P5 champs auto-bid, and 3 at-large or 2+1 depending on how they want to approach the G5.

I'll also be shocked if they don't insert a "no single conference gets more than 2 teams in" clause.


no way you have 8 teams w/o at least two of them being from the SEC
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Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #60 on: December 27, 2019, 01:24:57 PM »
You could just take the top 6 SEC teams and then add a couple others for fodder.

FearlessF

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #61 on: December 27, 2019, 01:29:39 PM »
yup, a couple "at-large"  from large conferences
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #62 on: December 27, 2019, 01:38:50 PM »
An 8-team playoff would definitely generate more money than the 4-team playoff but I do think there is a strong possibility that the overall amount of money generated by the sport as a whole might decrease because all of those OOC games would become exhibitions and nothing more.  As it stands now, Ohio State's game against Cincinnati was hugely important because a loss there *COULD* have kept Ohio State out of the CFP.  As it turned out this year it wouldn't have, but it *COULD* have.  Thus, the tOSU/Cincy game was hugely important to tOSU fans.  If the B1G Champion got an auto-bid then an early season game between tOSU and Bama wouldn't really matter much other than for seeding so who cares? 
But there's a flip side.

Let's say we're looking at 2015 OSU. That team didn't attend the CCG due to the loss to MSU, their only loss of the year. OOC, they played Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan. 

Do you think that OOC slate would have been enough to secure an at-large bid? OSU dropped to #8 in the rankings after that loss. What if it had been perceived as a down year in the B1G and they'd survived a couple close calls (they didn't, in this case). If you assume 6 of 8 slots are gone, that leaves two slots. Iowa was perfect in the regular season, but lost in the CCG, and finished above OSU in the final CFP rankings. Notre Dame was 10-2, and finished one slot behind OSU in the final CFP rankings, but they're Notre Dame. Florida State was also 10-2 and two spots behind OSU in the final rankings. I could see the committee giving Iowa a shot and rather than allowing 3 B1G teams in, giving the final at-large to Notre Dame.

Look at 2016 OSU. Again, they missed the CCG due to a single loss against PSU, but made the CFP. The B1G was strong that year, but what happens if you replace the Oklahoma win with Youngstown State? Do they still get the benefit of the doubt for one of two at-large slots without that big win? 

Then look at 2017 OSU. As a 2-loss team, they missed the CFP, and one of those losses was a premier OOC game against Oklahoma. In the 8-team system, they would still make the playoff as they won their conference, so scheduling a team like Oklahoma OOC isn't a hindrance. 

This year, Clemson's only decent OOC wins were a terrible Georgia Tech team and a mediocre Texas A&M team. Their conference was terrible. If they'd lost a conference game and missed their CCG, I'm not sure those OOC wins would have been enough to secure an at-large slot. 

OOC can be important for strength of schedule if you don't win your conference, and an OOC loss can be a mulligan if you do win your conference. 

Today it's probably best for premier teams to schedule OOC games against weak-to-middling P5 opponents. Teams good enough that they don't look terrible for strength of schedule, but teams who you are reasonably expected to easily beat. Because as @OrangeAfroMan points out, we often rank teams based on number of losses, not quality of wins. It's better for OSU to beat Boston College out of conference than lose to Oklahoma out of conference. But if you make conference championships an automatic qualifier, a team like OSU that schedules OOC against Oklahoma can still lose that game and make the playoff by winning the conference, and winning that game [but missing the CCG] gives them a better shot at the at-large bid. It actually makes it easier to justify scheduling harder OOC.

Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #63 on: December 27, 2019, 01:43:36 PM »
"This year, Clemson's only decent OOC wins were a terrible Georgia Tech team and a mediocre Texas A&M team. Their conference was terrible. If they'd lost a conference game and missed their CCG, I'm not sure those OOC wins would have been enough to secure an at-large slot. "

I think you mean South Carolina, not Georgia Tech, same difference.

Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #64 on: December 27, 2019, 01:46:21 PM »
Imagine a top ten team schedules one year 4 P5 teams OOC and 8 conference games (or 3 and 9).  Is that a disadvantage in an 8 team scenario?  They COULD go 8-4 and win their conference (9-4) after losing all OOC games.  This sort of thing does happen every so often, a conference champion is 9-4, or even 10-3.  And they deserve to be in the playoff?  In theory, they could lose 4 OOC and 2 in conference and finish only 7-6 as an extreme, that might happen once in 50 years.

I think Wake Forest won the ACC a few years back with a 9-4 kind of record.

Edit, they finished 11-3, losing a bowl game, so they had been 11-2, my bad.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #65 on: December 27, 2019, 01:46:36 PM »
"This year, Clemson's only decent OOC wins were a terrible Georgia Tech team and a mediocre Texas A&M team. Their conference was terrible. If they'd lost a conference game and missed their CCG, I'm not sure those OOC wins would have been enough to secure an at-large slot. "

I think you mean South Carolina, not Georgia Tech, same difference.
Ahh, you're right. I saw that GT was the first game of the season and forgot they were in the same conference. I clicked through to see that GT was 3-9 on the season. 

Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #66 on: December 27, 2019, 01:49:46 PM »
Meh, as I said, no difference to your point.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #67 on: December 27, 2019, 01:57:46 PM »
Imagine a top ten team schedules one year 4 P5 teams OOC and 8 conference games (or 3 and 9).  Is that a disadvantage in an 8 team scenario?  They COULD go 8-4 and win their conference (9-4) after losing all OOC games.  This sort of thing does happen every so often, a conference champion is 9-4, or even 10-3.  And they deserve to be in the playoff?  In theory, they could lose 4 OOC and 2 in conference and finish only 7-6 as an extreme, that might happen once in 50 years.

I think Wake Forest won the ACC a few years back with a 9-4 kind of record.
2018 Northwestern went to the CCG with an 8-4 (8-1, 0-3) record, including bad losses to Duke and Akron. Had they somehow beaten OSU in the CCG, they would have been crowned B1G champ with a 9-4 record. That's a team that didn't even schedule tough OOC. 

And then there was the 2010 UConn team, back when the Big East was a BCS conference that played football, that won their conference (tiebreaker) at 8-4 (5-2, 3-2). They were allotted a BCS slot despite that performance, and got predictably destroyed by Oklahoma in their bowl. 

I don't doubt that you'll see these scenarios at some point, where you'll have a team sneak into the playoff with a conference championship that was more a fluke than anything.

But isn't that somewhat exciting in itself? Don't you want to have Northwestern going into that CCG game with a chip on their shoulder, knowing that their OOC foibles are excused and they're one win away from a chance at the whole thing? Instead, you had a terrible game where Northwestern knew a win wouldn't get them into the CFP and OSU knowing that a win probably wouldn't get them in either after the loss to Purdue that year. Not that it's bad to be playing for the Rose Bowl berth, but when both teams in a CCG know they're probably not going to the CFP, doesn't it take some gravity away from the game?

Abba

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #68 on: December 27, 2019, 02:02:40 PM »
I think we talked about this in another thread.  Ohio State's schedule this year was really the ideal one for a playoff contender.  The OOC teams were good enough to make the SOS numbers look good (Cincy, Miami, FAU all made their conf championship games).  Then also, none of them were really a threat to win the game either.  So low risk, medium reward.  

If things had gone a little bit differently though, say Oregon beat Auburn and Ohio State lost to Wisconsin the first time around, then Oregon's high-risk, high-reward scheduling may have paid off and bumped them over Ohio State.  Just to keep things a little cleaner, let's also say in that scenario Oklahoma had gone undefeated.

Abba

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #69 on: December 27, 2019, 02:04:00 PM »
Yeah, I don't see the CCG upsets as a deterrent at all.  It's kind of like NCAAB where a team goes on a run and then makes the tourney.  It would be cool to see Northwestern, Wake Forest or whoever in the playoff if they have a magical run.  They're not likely to win again, but maybe 1 in 5 times they actually win the first round.

 

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