Interesting that you categorized A&M as an “ almost helmet”. For sure we haven’t been in the top 10 much in the last 20 years but have probably been in the top 25 mostly. What is the cutoff point for being considered a helmet? Revenue? Stadium size? Fan base? Geography? Wins? Heisman? MNC?
By your criteria was Clemson a helmet ~10 years ago?
I'm late responding to this, but OAM and CWS pretty much covered what I want to say in response.
First, I don't mean to pick on your team, aTm is a very good program. In my initial post on the issue I categorized them as "just shy of 'helmet'" and I stand by that. To me, "Helmet" is a distinction that only about 8-12 schools can claim. Looking at Stewart Mandel's lists from 2007, 2012, and 2017 here are his "kings" which is pretty much analogous to what we, on this board, generally refer to as the "helmet" programs:
- Bama - all three lists
- Florida - all three lists
- Florida State - all three lists
- Miami - all three lists
- Michigan - all three lists
- Notre Dame - all three lists
- Ohio State - all three lists
- Oklahoma - all three lists
- Penn State - all three lists
- Texas - all three lists
- USC - all three lists
- LSU - on in 2012 and 2017
- Clemson - on in 2017
- Nebraska - on in 2007 and 2012, off in 2017
- Tennessee - on in 2007, off in 2012 and 2017
Note that there are 11 schools on all three lists. Eight of those, IMHO, are no-brainers. The three that get some questions here are the three Florida schools: Florida, Florida State, and Miami. Those schools get some questions here because they lack the longevity of the other eight. The other eight have been competing at a very high level for at least 50+ years while 50 years ago the three Florida schools were complete afterthoughts in CFB.
Thus, as I see it, there are eight schools that are blue bloods / helmets / kings whatever you want to call them that pretty much everybody agrees on (alphabetical order):
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Penn State
- Texas
- USC
After that comes a group of near-helmets including:
- Florida
- Florida State
- Miami
- LSU
- Clemson
- Nebraska
- Tennessee
I would also include aTm among this group along with the rest of Stewart Mandel's "Barons":
- Auburn
- Georgia
- Michigan State
- Oregon
- Stanford
- UCLA
- VaTech
- Wisconsin
My take on potential moves into out out of the "helmet" group:
Moves out:
The eight programs that I treat as "consensus" helmet programs are the top-7 in all-time winning percentage and #9 Penn State. Personally, I think that Penn State is the most tenuous of the eight helmets both because they are the only one not among the top-7 in all-time winning percentage and because the bulk of their success is under just one coach, Joe Paterno. The further away from JoPa we get, the more legitimate the question of "Can PSU compete at the highest levels without JoPa?" becomes.
Moves in:
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are #8 in all-time winning percentage and if Scott Frost gets them back to competing at the highest level they could rejoin the helmets fairly quickly. The other thing that high-level success under Scott Frost would do is to demonstrate that Nebraska can compete at the highest levels without Bob Devaney or Tom Osborne. Unless/until they do, that is an open question.
Tennessee: The Volunteers are #10 in all-time winning percentage and if they can get back to competing at the highest level they could also rejoin the helmets fairly quickly.
LSU: The Tigers are tied with UGA for #11 in all-time winning percentage but when you add that to their multiple NC's in multiple eras, I think they are the closest to moving up right now.
Georgia: The Bulldogs are farther away from the top group in all-time winning percentage. Their .654 is good, of course, but the lowest for a consensus "helmet" is PSU's .690. I put UGA behind LSU because LSU has more NC's.
Miami/Florida/Florida State: I grouped the "Florida Schools" together because they are all in roughly the same situation. Some people think that they are already helmets because they have each generally been competing at a "helmet" level for most of the last 30-40 years. If they can continue that for another decade or two then they'll be in without question.
Clemson: The Tigers clearly are at the top of the heap of late but, as I see it, there are two things holding them back from being considered a true "helmet". First, they don't have the longevity of the helmets. Their all-time winning percentage of .616 is substantially below even the lowest of the helmets. Second, there is a question of staying power. Dabo Swinney has obviously done extremely well at Clemson but prior to his arrival they had only one NC and were nowhere close to a helmet. Even if Swinney stays and continues to compete at a high level for a long time it would still be a fair question as to whether or not they can do that without him.