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Topic: The CFP Era so far

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medinabuckeye1

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The CFP Era so far
« on: December 26, 2019, 10:43:14 AM »
It is truly amazing how dominant Alabama and Clemson have been.  So far there have been 15 CFP games.  Bama has won six and Clemson has won five.  The other four were won by tOSU(2x), UGA, and Oregon.  No other team has won even one CFP game and three of the four non-Bama/Clemson wins came in the first year.  

Bama is 6-3 in CFP games, they are:

  • 2-2 against Clemson
  • 0-1 against tOSU
  • 4-0 against everybody else
Clemson is 5-2 in CFP games, they are:
  • 2-2 against Bama
  • 3-0 against everybody else (including 1-0 against tOSU)


Clemson and Bama's domination is so complete that even if the Buckeyes win the whole thing this year (which by definition would mean that Clemson would go 0-1 in CFP games this year) the Buckeyes would still be a rather distant third and everybody else is even further back.  The Buckeyes could tie Bama/Clemson in Championships but they would still have less appearances (three vs five each), less CFP games (five vs 8 for Clemson and 9 for Bama), and less CFP wins (four vs 5 for Clemson and 6 for Bama).  

Here are the top teams in winning percentage from 2014 through so far in 2019:

  • 78-7 Clemson
  • 75-7 Ohio State
  • 77-8 Bama
  • 66-14 Oklahoma


Abba

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2019, 12:04:31 PM »
As it stands now, I'd say that Clemson and Bama are clearly the best teams of this era.  

Then you can argue between Oklahoma and Ohio State.  I think they are pretty close, as Ohio State does have a title and better record, but Oklahoma has more playoff appearances.  Although Oklahoma has lost all of their games, they were competitive and really let that game against Georgia slip away.

Then like you mentioned teams that have at least won a game, though only appeared once each I believe, you have Oregon and Georgia.

Another interesting tidbit, appearances by conference:

SEC: Alabama: 5, Georgia: 1, LSU: 1, Total: 7
ACC: Clemson: 5, Florida State: 1, Total: 6
Big Ten: Ohio State: 3, Michigan State: 1, Total: 4
Big XII: Oklahoma: 4, Total: 4
Pac 12: Oregon: 1, Washington: 1, Total: 2
Independent: Notre Dame: 1, Total: 1

medinabuckeye1

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2019, 12:18:52 PM »
As it stands now, I'd say that Clemson and Bama are clearly the best teams of this era. 

Then you can argue between Oklahoma and Ohio State.  I think they are pretty close, as Ohio State does have a title and better record, but Oklahoma has more playoff appearances.  Although Oklahoma has lost all of their games, they were competitive and really let that game against Georgia slip away.

Then like you mentioned teams that have at least won a game, though only appeared once each I believe, you have Oregon and Georgia.
For CFP era so far I would say:
  • #1/2:  Bama/Clemson
  • #3/4:  tOSU/OU:  You can argue this either way.  I lean toward tOSU based on the two CFP wins and the title but I'm a tOSU guy.  OU has more appearances.  
  • #5/6:  UGA/Oregon:  Both 1-1 in their two CFP games.  
  • #7/8/9/10:  FSU, MSU, ND, Washington:  Each 0-1 in their one CFP game.  

This year:
  • Clemson could move slightly ahead of Bama with a Championship or would exactly tie them in CFP games with a CG loss.  With a semi-final loss they remain slightly behind Bama.  
  • Ohio State could move into the top group with a Championship (albeit still clearly #3) or stay in the 3/4 group otherwise.  
  • Oklahoma could move to somewhat clearly ahead of tOSU with a Championship (and a tOSU semi-final loss) or stay in the 3/4 group otherwise.  
  • LSU will move at least into the 7-10 group.  With a Championship they'd join tOSU/OU.  With a CG loss they would join UGA/Oregon.  


Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2019, 12:36:58 PM »
It is a bit surprising how dominant the top two have been of late.  I'm sure two teams have done this sort of thing before, but it seems to me there usually were more teams close to them in some year in apparent competence.

Abba

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2019, 12:58:33 PM »
Yeah, even as dominant as USC was in the Carroll years in the early 2000s, they probably would've missed the playoffs if they existed in '02, '06, '07 and definitely in '09.  So that legendary dynasty would've only made the playoffs in about half of those years.  Meanwhile Bama and Clemson have made it 5 of 6 years.  It is pretty crazy.  

FearlessF

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2019, 01:42:59 PM »
Cornhuskers would have made it in 93, 94, 95, & 97 & 99 & 2001

but not 5 of 6

The upset in the Big 12 champ game would have kept them out in 96
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2019, 01:58:32 PM »
Yeah, even as dominant as USC was in the Carroll years in the early 2000s, they probably would've missed the playoffs if they existed in '02, '06, '07 and definitely in '09.  So that legendary dynasty would've only made the playoffs in about half of those years.  Meanwhile Bama and Clemson have made it 5 of 6 years.  It is pretty crazy. 
Ehh, legendary dynasty?  You mean the dynasty that could/should have been, but wasn't?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2019, 02:00:53 PM »
This thread made me think that hey, you could plop a 4-team playoff in any 5-year stretch and there would have been a dominant program or two dominating at the time.  Early 90s?  Miami/Washington/Alabama would be dominating the playoff. 
Late 70s?  Alabama/USC/Oklahoma would be taking turns hoisting the trophy.
.
But then I remember that we haven't had any #1 seeds win the CFP.  That's the most interesting part to me.  The top two programs of these last 5 years have dominated the playoff WHILE no 1 seed has won it all. BUT also, three times, it's been Clemson/Alabama winning it all at the other's expense.
.
I guess the better you are, the most likely it is you take advantage of your mulligan!
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Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2019, 03:01:07 PM »
Yeah, I recall periods of 3-4-5 years where 3-4 teams consistently were at the top, but not two, that I can recall.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2019, 03:33:03 PM »
Florida/Alabama were it from 08-09, and probably would have continued if Cam Newton had stayed at UF.  

Miami and OU from 85-87 were a pair.  Penn St and ND were really good, too, but overall, it was OU who went 33-3 and all 3 losses to the Canes.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2019, 03:42:16 PM »
This thread made me think that hey, you could plop a 4-team playoff in any 5-year stretch and there would have been a dominant program or two dominating at the time.  Early 90s?  Miami/Washington/Alabama would be dominating the playoff. 
Late 70s?  Alabama/USC/Oklahoma would be taking turns hoisting the trophy.
.
But then I remember that we haven't had any #1 seeds win the CFP.  That's the most interesting part to me.  The top two programs of these last 5 years have dominated the playoff WHILE no 1 seed has won it all. BUT also, three times, it's been Clemson/Alabama winning it all at the other's expense.
.
I guess the better you are, the most likely it is you take advantage of your mulligan!
The CFP has definitely helped on the mulligan front.  Mid-90's Nebraska is a great example of this.  They won titles in 1994, 1995, and 1997.  In 1996 they wouldn't have made a CFP, but they definitely would have been close.  Maybe with a potential NC to play for they wouldn't have lost to Texas in the B12CG?  

I've always thought of USC in this context.  Carroll's USC teams typically were almost unbeatable in big games but they also typically lost once or twice a year to a team that shouldn't have been within four TD's of them.  That would have gotten them into the CFP more often than not.  

The thing about the #1 seed having no NC's in five years of the CFP is interesting.  The #1's:
  • 2014 #1 Bama lost the semi-final to tOSU.  0-1.  
  • 2015 #1 Clemson lost the CG to Bama.  1-1, cumulative 1-2.  
  • 2016 #1 Bama lost the CG to Clemson.  1-1, 2-3.  
  • 2017 #1 Clemson lost the semi-final to Bama.  0-1, 2-4.  
  • 2018 #1 Bama lost the CG to Clemson.  1-1, 3-5.  
  • 2019 #1 LSU . . .

Even with an LSU NC this year the #1 seed will only be .500 in CFP games.  That is shockingly bad for what is supposed to be the best team each year.  

The #2's:
  • 2014 #2 Oregon lost the CG.  1-1.  
  • 2015 #2 Bama won the CG.  2-0, 3-1.  
  • 2016 #2 Clemson won the CG.  2-0, 5-1.  
  • 2017 #2 OU lost the semi-final.  0-1, 5-2.  
  • 2018 #2 Clemson won the CG.  2-0, 7-2.  

The #3's:
  • 2014 #3 FSU lost the semi-final.  0-1.  
  • 2015 #3 MSU lost the semi-final.  0-1, 0-2.  
  • 2016 #3 tOSU lost the semi-final.  0-1, 0-3.  
  • 2017 #3 UGA lost the CG.  1-1, 1-4.  
  • 2018 #3 ND lost the semi-final.  0-1, 1-5.  

The #4's:
  • 2014 #4 tOSU won the CG.  2-0.  
  • 2015 #4 OU lost the semi-final.  0-1, 2-1.  
  • 2016 #4 Washington lost the semi-final.  0-1, 2-2.  
  • 2017 #4 Bama won the CG.  2-0, 4-2.  
  • 2018 #4 OU lost the semi-final.  0-1, 4-3.  

Overall:
  • 7-2, 3 championships for the #2 seeds
  • 4-3, 2 championship for the #4 seeds
  • 3-5, 0 championships for the #1 seeds
  • 1-5, 0 championships for the #3 seeds


Cincydawg

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2019, 04:06:25 PM »
I view the top teams as almost interchangeable.  If the "real" #1 played #4 every time, they would probably win 65% of them (give or take).  That means the "real" #1 team would win the playoff less often than half the time.  This year, we view OU as "not of the same caliber" as the top 3, but I bet they are pretty close in reality.  The top three likely have not faced a team that good all year (LSU has arguably).  

So, even if the teams were slotted exactly correctly every year, the #1 seed would likely win less than half the time.


FearlessF

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2019, 04:22:53 PM »
so, better to earn an even numbered seed

2 or 4
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The CFP Era so far
« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2019, 05:11:55 PM »
I view the top teams as almost interchangeable.  If the "real" #1 played #4 every time, they would probably win 65% of them (give or take).  
Well, they have won three out of five so far and that is 60% so not far off from your 65% estimate.  
So, even if the teams were slotted exactly correctly every year, the #1 seed would likely win less than half the time.
Agreed, they wouldn't win half the time.  Lets use your 65% estimate for games against #4.  They should then win more than 50% against the 2/3 winner.  Even if we only give them 50% there, that still adds up to winning the Championship roughly 1/3 of the time (.65*.5=.325).  

In six years (after this one is done) the #1 seed should be:
  • 4-2 in semi-finals against #4 (67%)
  • 2-2 in CG's against the 2/3 winner (50%)
  • 6-4 overall with two championships.  
Instead they are 3-5 and can do no better than 5-5 with one championship.  

I am not saying, and I do not think anyone is saying that we expect #1 to just dominate the thing.  That said, they are well below what we should reasonably expect statistically.  


 

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