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Topic: The 80% Club

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #154 on: July 26, 2018, 05:30:29 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2018, 01:27:40 PM
I thought you can't spell Citrus without "UT" right?


Love this, especially when Tennessee would give it's left leg to make the Citrus Bowl....
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #155 on: July 26, 2018, 05:35:36 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 26, 2018, 12:14:04 PM
alabama's roster is loaded, no denying that, and very likely the best top to bottom.

but i don't buy that it's worlds better than several other schools.

at best (from bama's perspective) it's still within a marginal % for the next 10-20 teams such that they could have a better than 50% chance to win based on other factors (location, injuries, prior opp, etc.).
This would be correct, based on 1-2 years of superior recruiting.  But we're going on 6-7 years of #1ish recruiting classes, stacked on top of each other.  Alabama's rosters for the last 3-4 years have been THE most talented since scholarship limits began.  Not arguably, not kinda/sort, but definitively.  Other elite programs get top-5 recruiting classes sometimes - maybe 2 in 3 years or 3 in 5.  
No one else has 6-7 straight 1st or 2nd-ranked classes.  So yes, Bama's roster is so talented that they should never lose.  Their playoff games vs Washington and Michigan State the last few years are closer to their actual talent level than their losses to Auburn or Clemson.
If Alabama were to go 10-2 this year or next year, there's a good case to say Saban has mailed it in and isn't coaching very well.  They're that good.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #156 on: July 26, 2018, 06:19:58 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2018, 05:35:36 PM
No one else has 6-7 straight 1st or 2nd-ranked classes.  So yes, Bama's roster is so talented that they should never lose.  Their playoff games vs Washington and Michigan State the last few years are closer to their actual talent level than their losses to Auburn or Clemson.
Well, that's one way to look at it.
The other way is if you have a team that is consistently top 10 in recruiting and just happens to have a VERY senior-laden team, or is particularly strong in the passing game exactly where Alabama's defense is inexperienced, then experience can trump talent. 
But I do agree. Bama is stacked top to bottom. Even if they have a few questions at DB, they undoubtedly have fewer questions than basically any other program because they're so stacked with talent everywhere. 
So yeah, I don't think there's a game this year they won't be favored in.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #157 on: July 26, 2018, 07:31:38 PM »
I believe Bama's been favored in every game the past 4-5 years except for one.  I want to say 3 years ago, UGA was a slight favorite at home.  It sort of made sense with the idea you noted - experience and such.  But Bama blew them out like 38-10 or something like that.

Bama's recruiting SHOULD make them letdown-proof, lack of experience-proof, and whatever other issues the rest of the top programs deal with in their rare losses.  Alabama should never lose.  They've reached that level - higher than mid-late 90s UNL (system, great coaching/development), late 80s Miami, or mid-70s OU.  
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rolltidefan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #158 on: July 27, 2018, 10:29:53 AM »
that kind of thinking, oam, is rat poison. :)

bama's #1 class run being easily the best roster is only true if you put at or near 100% certainty in recruiting rankings. and we all know they are flawed. in any given year, the top 5-10 are interchangeable.

since 14 recruiting class, since those are all that's on these rosters, lsu, fsu, au, osu, uga and usc have all had striaght top 10 classes. osu, fsu and lsu have had almost all top 2-3, with only 1 being outside top 5, just like bama.

i think it's highly likely that at any given year, one (or more) of those classes were better than bamas '#1' class. i find it extremely unlikely that bama's marginally higher ranking is proof that bama should never lose. at best, you could say bama is slightly better on paper, but other factors will determine likelihood of outcome.

as for favored, bama has been going since 09 sec title game i think. the opening line streak ended at 72 in 2015 @ uga, but by game time the line had shifted to bama being slight favorites on most books, with a few holding as a pickem. 112 games and counting if my math is right. but this doesn't really mean anything other than most people think bama will win, not on who should actually win.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2018, 10:32:01 AM by rolltidefan »
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utee94

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #159 on: July 27, 2018, 10:52:08 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2018, 05:30:29 PM
Love this, especially when Tennessee would give it's left leg to make the Citrus Bowl....
Spurrier was not only a great ball coach, but a ton of fun and great for the sport. I definitely miss him.
About the only coach I can think of right now who is similarly fun, is Mike Leach, but he clearly hasn't had as much success as Spurrier did, and he doesn't get as much airtime.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #160 on: July 27, 2018, 10:57:25 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2018, 04:52:52 PM
Miami's defense at home beat many offenses, not just the wishbone or the I as Marq pointed out.
I'll defer to the Pirate's opinion on offenses over guesswork supported by weak evidence.
I think this is an important point.  Not being able to beat those Miami defenses doesn't prove anything except that those Miami defenses were really, Really, REALLY good.  
I do think that defenses, in general, are more suited to defending that type of offense though.  Defenses are a lot faster today.  I don't mean that the DB's are faster, they are but that isn't the point.  The LBers and DL's are faster.  That makes it a lot harder to beat them to the corner.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #161 on: July 27, 2018, 10:59:13 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2018, 05:35:36 PM
This would be correct, based on 1-2 years of superior recruiting.  But we're going on 6-7 years of #1ish recruiting classes, stacked on top of each other.  Alabama's rosters for the last 3-4 years have been THE most talented since scholarship limits began.  Not arguably, not kinda/sort, but definitively.  Other elite programs get top-5 recruiting classes sometimes - maybe 2 in 3 years or 3 in 5.  
No one else has 6-7 straight 1st or 2nd-ranked classes.  So yes, Bama's roster is so talented that they should never lose.  Their playoff games vs Washington and Michigan State the last few years are closer to their actual talent level than their losses to Auburn or Clemson.
If Alabama were to go 10-2 this year or next year, there's a good case to say Saban has mailed it in and isn't coaching very well.  They're that good.
At the end of the day you are still talking about a bunch of 18-22 year old kids.  They are human and we humans don't always play up to our potential.  Even if we take it as a given that Bama's talent level is superior to all potential opponents you still have human factors.  
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utee94

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #162 on: July 27, 2018, 11:00:39 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 27, 2018, 10:59:13 AM
At the end of the day you are still talking about a bunch of 18-22 year old kids.  They are human and we humans don't always play up to our potential.  Even if we take it as a given that Bama's talent level is superior to all potential opponents you still have human factors.  
We can all hope, anyway.
One thing's for sure, their coach is NOT human.  But I'll go along with the assumption that at least some of the players are... ;)
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FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #163 on: July 27, 2018, 11:02:38 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2018, 10:52:08 AM
Spurrier was not only a great ball coach, but a ton of fun and great for the sport. I definitely miss him.
About the only coach I can think of right now who is similarly fun, is Mike Leach, but he clearly hasn't had as much success as Spurrier did, and he doesn't get as much airtime.  

I like the Pirate much more than old Shiny pants
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FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #164 on: July 27, 2018, 11:08:10 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 27, 2018, 10:57:25 AM
I think this is an important point.  Not being able to beat those Miami defenses doesn't prove anything except that those Miami defenses were really, Really, REALLY good.  
I do think that defenses, in general, are more suited to defending that type of offense though.  Defenses are a lot faster today.  I don't mean that the DB's are faster, they are but that isn't the point.  The LBers and DL's are faster.  That makes it a lot harder to beat them to the corner.  
very true,. but as rolltidefan pointed out in the other thread:
2011 had 1 score more than 2 tds, ga southern (21) using wishbone. but they also didn't face any offenses as good as aTm and uga were the following year.

Even a very fast well coached defense has trouble stopping the wishbone
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rolltidefan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #165 on: July 27, 2018, 01:14:09 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2018, 11:08:10 AM
very true,. but as rolltidefan pointed out in the other thread:
2011 had 1 score more than 2 tds, ga southern (21) using wishbone. but they also didn't face any offenses as good as aTm and uga were the following year.

Even a very fast well coached defense has trouble stopping the wishbone
on a one off, single game event, that we might have spent half the week preparing for.
if multiple opponents were running wishbone to the point where it became a focus to learn how to stop it, i think bama and a myriad of other teams could stop them on a regular basis.
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rolltidefan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #166 on: July 27, 2018, 01:14:51 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2018, 11:00:39 AM
We can all hope, anyway.
One thing's for sure, their coach is NOT human.  But I'll go along with the assumption that at least some of the players are... ;)

the players are, we've just suped them up with deer antler pray.
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utee94

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #167 on: July 27, 2018, 01:29:26 PM »
Is that what y'all are calling it these days? 
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