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Topic: The 80% Club

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rolltidefan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #84 on: July 24, 2018, 10:36:49 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 24, 2018, 09:41:03 AM
This was my list of scenarios that could happen:
18-W18-L18-Games18-%09-17-W09-17-L09-17-Gm09-17-%
150151128121400.9143
141150.933333127131400.9071
132150.866667126141400.9000
123150.8125151400.8929
131140.928571126131390.9065
122140.857143125141390.8993
113140.785714124151390.8921
104140.714286123161390.8849
95140.642857122171390.8777
121130.923077125131380.9058
112130.846154124141380.8986
103130.769231123151380.8913
94130.692308122161380.8841
85130.615385121171380.8768
76130.538462120181380.8696
67130.461538119191380.8623
57120.416667118191370.8613
48120.333333117201370.8540
39120.25116211370.8467
210120.166667115221370.8394
111120.083333114231370.8321
012120113241370.8248
I left out:
  • 11-4 or worse on 15 games:  My theory here is that in order to play 15 games Bama would have to play in the SECCG, get to the CFP, and win the CFP semi-final.  Even assuming that they lost the CFP Championship that would require at least three losses prior to the CFP and I just can't see a scenario in which a three-loss team gets into the CFP.  
  • 8-6 or worse on 14 games:  My theory here is that in order to play 14 games Bama would have to either play in the SECCG or win a CFP semi-final.  Neither of those things seem plausible for a team with at least four losses.  
  • 5-7 or worse on 13 games:  If Bama was worse than 6-6 on their first 12 then they wouldn't get a 13th.  

looks ok, i'd only maybe argue the 5-7 notes. several 5-7 teams have gone bowling (a disgrace, imo) and with bama being o the right side of apr and the amount of fan travel, i'd bet bama gets a bowl. and i'd hope we wouldn't.
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847badgerfan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #85 on: July 24, 2018, 10:38:46 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 24, 2018, 09:26:49 AM
The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math.  
Yeah but, all the profits will go to fund schools!!!
LMAO
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Entropy

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #86 on: July 24, 2018, 10:40:22 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 24, 2018, 10:35:27 AM
I wouldn't go so far as to say they "couldn't" beat Bama.
They have vistories over some decent P5 teams - no team in the top 10 or top 5, but on any given Saturday in September.........
Only way NDSU would win vs bama would be for bama to give the game away, NDSU wouldn't beat them...  NDSU can beat P5 teams, but not bama
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #87 on: July 24, 2018, 11:07:23 AM »
I hope this pastes right:
YearstOSU ranktOSU%#1#1%#2#2%#3#3%#4#4%#5#5%#6#6%#7#7%#8#8%
1946-1955190.66848OU0.88208ND0.85567Miami-O0.82447
1947-1956180.67935OU0.90952Miami-O0.83871GaTech0.80631
1948-195770.74194OU0.92453Miami-O0.80978MSU0.80645
1949-195860.75269OU0.92453
1950-1959120.71196OU0.89524
1951-1960100.72283OU0.84135Ole Miss0.82243
1952-196140.76087Ole Miss0.83796OU0.8125
1953-196240.76087Ole Miss0.85514OU0.8
1954-196360.75543Ole Miss0.85981
1955-196470.73077BGSU0.85484Ole Miss0.8271ASU0.81188
1956-196570.73077BGSU0.84946
1957-1966120.70879BGSU0.82258Ole Miss0.80093
1958-1967170.68333Bama0.83945BGSU0.80319
1959-1968150.70879Bama0.85455
1960-196950.75824Bama0.83636Texas0.81019
1961-197050.77174Texas0.83333Bama0.80631Dartmouth0.8
1962-1971100.73656UNL0.83333Dartmouth0.82222Texas0.81481
1963-1972100.75263UNL0.83036Texas0.81944Dartmouth0.80556
1964-197380.78866ND0.83654UNL0.81858ASU0.80374Bama0.80263
1965-197460.795ND0.83019PSU0.81532UNL0.8114Bama0.80435
1966-197550.81068PSU0.83628ND0.8271ASU0.81982OU0.8125tOSU0.81068Bama0.81034UNL0.80435
1967-197610.83962tOSU0.83962PSU0.83913OU0.82895USC0.81739Mich0.81364ND0.80734ASU0.80357
1968-197730.84404PSU0.85345Mich0.85268tOSU0.84404OU0.82174ND0.81982UNL0.80672Texas0.80531Bama0.80085
1969-197870.80631Mich0.85526OU0.84914PSU0.84615Bama0.81933ND0.81858UNL0.81818tOSU0.80631USC0.80085
1970-197960.8114OU0.87712Bama0.8625Mich0.84783UNL0.81967PSU0.81356tOSU0.8114ND0.80531USC0.80252
1971-198070.79741OU0.89831Bama0.89167Mich0.84188PSU0.825USC0.81933UNL0.80738
1972-198160.80932Bama0.87917OU0.86864USC0.83333Mich0.82479PSU0.81667tOSU0.80932Yale0.80435
1973-198250.80252Bama0.8625OU0.84322PSU0.825USC0.80672tOSU0.80252Mich0.80085
1974-198360.78333Bama0.8375OU0.81513UNL0.80894
1975-198450.775UNL0.81707BYU0.81141
1976-198570.75833BYU0.832UNL0.80894
1977-198670.7562PSU0.82083UNL0.81967BYU0.81746OU0.80833
1978-198790.74167UNL0.82787OU0.81667BYU0.80469
1979-1988130.72269UNL0.8374BYU0.80469OU0.8
1980-1989160.69748UNL0.8374Miami-F0.83193
1981-1990170.68478Maimi-F0.84034UNL0.82927
1982-1991200.67647Miami-F0.85833UNL0.83333
1983-1992200.67227Miami-F0.8843UNL0.81557
1984-1993170.68478Miami-F0.86777FSU0.82377UNL0.81405
1985-1994190.67917Miami-F0.89167FSU0.84426UNL0.83197
1986-1995170.69008Miami-F0.88235UNL0.85656FSU0.85246
1987-1996170.70417FSU0.88115Miami-F0.86555UNL0.85772
1988-1997120.72131FSU0.88115UNL0.875Miami-F0.81356
1989-199890.76829FSU0.87398UNL0.85887TN0.82927UF0.81048
1990-199990.75203FSU0.89024UNL0.868UF0.82TN0.81301
1991-200080.7561FSU0.89117UNL0.876UF0.81496TN0.80328
1992-200180.74797UNL0.88095FSU0.87398UF0.81496TN0.81301
1993-200270.78UNL0.85156FSU0.844UF0.80709
1994-200370.77778UNL0.83721FSU0.828
1995-200450.776FSU0.816TN0.80159
1996-200530.77419
1997-200610.776
1998-200740.784Boise0.80952Texas0.80469
1999-200840.76984Boise0.84375Texas0.82171OU0.81955
2000-200940.80315Boise0.86822Texas0.85271OU0.8209tOSU0.80315
2001-201030.81034Boise0.87692Texas0.82171tOSU0.81034OU0.80741
2002-201170.79487Boise0.90076USC0.82609TCU0.81746OU0.8
2003-201230.7913Boise0.89313LSU0.81061
2004-201330.7931Boise0.86154
2005-201420.82353Boise0.85606tOSU0.82353Oregon0.80303
2006-201520.8333Boise0.85606tOSU0.8333Bama0.8
2007-201630.825Bama0.85714Boise0.83333tOSU0.825
2008-201730.82645Bama0.89928Boise0.83459tOSU0.82645

If that formats right and you can make sense of it, it is all the post-war 10 year .800 club members.  I also included Ohio State for each cycle just for my own curiosity.  

Upthread I think it was @Brutus Buckeye who pointed out that approximately the 70's was the time after the two-platoon system but before scholarship limits when the helmets just plain dominated.  Thus you had the Big2/Little8 in the BigTen with tOSU and Michigan completely dominating.  It was similar in other conferences as evidenced by the fact that the most .800 club members in a 10-year period which happened in the three consecutive cycles of 1968-1977, 1969-1978, and 1970-1979.  In those three cycles Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Alabama were all over .800.  Additionally, Texas was in for the first of the three while USC was in for the last two.  

Current .800 club membership streaks are:
  • 11 cycles:  Boise
  • 4 cycles:  tOSU
  • 2 cycles:  Bama

Teams most likely to stay in or get in to the .800 club for 2009-2018 (% is for 2009-2017 the first nine years of the next cycle):
  • .90400 Bama:  They will remain in the .800 club even if they go 0-12.  (As noted above they have a decent chance to hit .900 for 2009-2018.  That hasn't been done since Boise did it from 2002-2011 and it hasn't been done by a major program since Oklahoma from 1949-1958.  FWIW, the closest any major program has come since 49-58 was when Oklahoma went .89831 from 71-80.)
  • .8333 Ohio State:  They will remain in the .800 club if they go 7-6 or better.  
  • .82500 Boise:  They will remain in the .800 club if they go 8-5 or better.  
  • .78226 Clemson:  They would join the .800 club if they went 15-0.  
  • .78151 Oklahoma:  They would join the .800 club if they went 15-0.  

No other teams have a mathematical chance to get into the .800 club for 2009-2018.  Thus, for 2009-2018 the .800 club will have between one and four members.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #88 on: July 24, 2018, 11:14:50 AM »
Hey now, if UW (lol) goes 15-0 this year they'd be at 0.795620438. 

Close enough in hand grenades.  :86:
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #89 on: July 24, 2018, 11:16:10 AM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 24, 2018, 10:31:17 AM
not necessarily. an elephant weighs about 13000 lbs, so would take 52 raiders averaging 250 lbs (which is generous, imo) to match the elephant.
second, who said bama is a single elephant? just because they have a single elephant mascot? mt union mascot is a single macaw anyway, not raiders.
and like mt union aren't the macaws, bama isn't the elephant(s), we're the tide. i'm fairly sure that'll outweigh any amount of raiders, macaws and/or elephants. or any other mascots that i can think of for that matter.
Well yeah, but it's all water weight. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #90 on: July 24, 2018, 11:29:31 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2018, 11:14:50 AM
Hey now, if UW (lol) goes 15-0 this year they'd be at 0.795620438.
Close enough in hand grenades.  :86:
LoL, Wisconsin is the next one out and even a 15-0 season in 2018 wouldn't quite get them to .800 for 2009-2018.  I think that Wisconsin doesn't have a serious chance until that 8-6 from 2012 falls off for 2013-2022.  Since then they have gone:
  • 2013:  9-4:  .692308
  • 2014:  11-3:  .785714
  • 2015:  10-3:  .769231
  • 2016:  11-3:  .785714
  • 2017:  13-1:  .928571
  • 2013-2017:  54-14:  .79412
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TyphonInc

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #91 on: July 24, 2018, 11:30:14 AM »
Quote from: Entropy on July 24, 2018, 10:40:22 AM
Only way NDSU would win vs bama would be for bama to give the game away, NDSU wouldn't beat them...  NDSU can beat P5 teams, but not bama
Only way [Appalachian State] would win vs [M*ch*g*n] would be for [M*ch*g*n] to give the game away, [Appalachian State] wouldn't beat them...  [Appalachian State] can beat P5 teams, but not [M*ch*g*n].

It's a fair point. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #92 on: July 24, 2018, 11:56:22 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 24, 2018, 10:33:07 AM
since we have a P5 class and a G5 class, some folks were simply pointing out the difference in classes
you are obviously smart enough to know the difference, but some folks just wanted to point out the obvious
I’ve found that in dealing with the public, there is no such thing as obvious.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #93 on: July 24, 2018, 12:00:41 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on July 24, 2018, 11:30:14 AM
Only way [Appalachian State] would win vs [M*ch*g*n] would be for [M*ch*g*n] to give the game away, [Appalachian State] wouldn't beat them...  [Appalachian State] can beat P5 teams, but not [M*ch*g*n].

It's a fair point.
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847badgerfan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #94 on: July 24, 2018, 12:49:19 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 24, 2018, 11:29:31 AM
LoL, Wisconsin is the next one out and even a 15-0 season in 2018 wouldn't quite get them to .800 for 2009-2018.  I think that Wisconsin doesn't have a serious chance until that 8-6 from 2012 falls off for 2013-2022.  Since then they have gone:
  • 2013:  9-4:  .692308
  • 2014:  11-3:  .785714
  • 2015:  10-3:  .769231
  • 2016:  11-3:  .785714
  • 2017:  13-1:  .928571
  • 2013-2017:  54-14:  .79412

Not a bad run for Big Red. Need a win in Indy to make things mo betta.
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Kris61

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #95 on: July 24, 2018, 01:05:43 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 24, 2018, 10:33:07 AM
since we have a P5 class and a G5 class, some folks were simply pointing out the difference in classes
you are obviously smart enough to know the difference, but some folks just wanted to point out the obvious
I’d argue they weren’t so much as pointing out the obvious as they were shielding their eyes and screaming, “Get them out of my sight!”
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FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #96 on: July 24, 2018, 01:49:58 PM »
I'm sure you'd argue

and you might just be right
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Entropy

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #97 on: July 24, 2018, 01:53:24 PM »
I'd have to agree with Kris61...


Now, if you don't mind... I need to go take a shower after admitting that..
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