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Topic: The 80% Club

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FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #42 on: July 23, 2018, 05:05:01 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2018, 04:19:17 PM
Paul Chryst is clipping along at 83 percent for UW. Only 7 years to go.
good luck
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rolltidefan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #43 on: July 23, 2018, 05:06:54 PM »
just checked the ou 47 game streak period, they did +90 for 3 consecutive 10 year periods, each 10-year-period beginning in 47, 48 and 49.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #44 on: July 23, 2018, 05:10:20 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 23, 2018, 05:02:50 PM
does anyone have a 90% decade?
UConn women's basketball, maybe?
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FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #45 on: July 23, 2018, 05:11:56 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 23, 2018, 05:06:54 PM
just checked the ou 47 game streak period, they did +90 for 3 consecutive 10 year periods, each 10-year-period beginning in 47, 48 and 49.
derned cheatin land thieves 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #46 on: July 23, 2018, 05:22:07 PM »
The Chicago maroons didn't lose a single game from 1940-68. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #47 on: July 23, 2018, 05:33:16 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 23, 2018, 05:02:50 PM
does anyone have a 90% decade?

next season (if i did my math correct) IF bama has either 13+ wins or only 1 loss (even at 11-1) they will top 90%.

my math:
as it is now, last decade (08-17) 125-14-0 (.89928)
take away 12-2 season (08) and replace with any of the following gets above 90%: 11-1 (.90511), 12-1 (.90580), 13-2 (.90000), 13-1 (.90648), 14-1 (.90714), 15-0 (.91427).
Some mathematical notes/questions:
  • You have 11-1 listed as a possibility.  I do not think this would be possible.  Bama has 12 scheduled games.  If they go 11-1 they will obviously get a bowl game.  Then they would either win the bowl and finish 12-1 and above 90% for the decade or lose the bowl and finish 11-2 and below 90% for the decade.  
Number of games Bama could play this season:
  • 12:  But any scenario in which they play only 12 games would have them well below 90% for the decade because it would involve missing a bowl by finishing 5-7 or worse.  
  • 13:  The scheduled games and one bowl or CFP semi-final (that Bama would, by definition, lose).  
  • 14:  The scheduled games and either two CFP games or the SECCG and either one bowl or a CFP semi-final loss.  
  • 15:  The scheduled games, the SECCG, a CFP semi-final, and a CFP Championship.  
FWIW: 13-0 is also not a real possibility because if BAMA started 12-0 that would obviously get them to the SECCG and a win there would get them to the CFP.  Similarly, 14-0 is not a real possibility because that would get them an SECCG win and a CFP semi-final win and they would play a 15th game to finish either 15-0 or 14-1.  

Possibilities, as I see it, for Bama to finish over 90% for the decade:
  • 15-0:  Win all games this year, go 15-0 for the year, 128-12 for the decade, .9143.  
  • 14-1:  Either lose a random regular season game that does not knock them out of the SECCG or start 14-0 then lose the CFP Championship, go 14-1 for the year, 127-13 for the decade, .9071.  
  • 13-1:  Either lose one regular season SEC game to an SEC-W competitor that also finishes at least 7-1, miss the SECCG, get to the CFP anyway and win the Championship or go undefeated until the SECCG, lose the SECCG, miss the CFP, and win the subsequent bowl go 13-1 for the year, 126-13 for the decade, .9065.  
  • 13-2:  Either lose two regular season games that do not knock them out of the SECCG or lose one that does not knock them out of the SECCG then (depending on which) go either 2-0 or 1-1 in the CFP, 13-2 for the year, 126-14 for the decade, .900.  
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rolltidefan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #48 on: July 23, 2018, 05:43:00 PM »
yeah, i was just running the numbers, not most likely scenarios. just went from best possible on down, stopping at reg season games only.

but those look correct as realistic scenarios.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #49 on: July 23, 2018, 05:47:13 PM »
From '96-'05 and '97-'06, no program is at 80%.  Hmmph.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #50 on: July 23, 2018, 05:50:19 PM »
Duke has a stretch where they're #1.  So does Ole Miss.  Hardin Simmons!
« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 05:52:00 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
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847badgerfan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #51 on: July 23, 2018, 05:51:04 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 23, 2018, 05:22:07 PM
The Chicago maroons didn't lose a single game from 1940-68.
Can lose if you don't play.
That's my theory with Lottery too.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #52 on: July 23, 2018, 05:52:24 PM »
badge, you're not poor enough to buy lottery tickets...
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #53 on: July 23, 2018, 06:00:33 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 23, 2018, 05:02:50 PM
does anyone have a 90% decade?

next season (if i did my math correct) IF bama has either 13+ wins or only 1 loss (even at 11-1) they will top 90%.

my math:
as it is now, last decade (08-17) 125-14-0 (.89928)
take away 12-2 season (08) and replace with any of the following gets above 90%: 11-1 (.90511), 12-1 (.90580), 13-2 (.90000), 13-1 (.90648), 14-1 (.90714), 15-0 (.91427).
From '71-'80, Oklahoma went .898 (105-11-2) and Bama went .892 (107-13).
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris61

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #54 on: July 23, 2018, 06:06:53 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2018, 03:13:38 PM
If I were to list Boise State's best 10 wins in their ~20 years or so of FBS play, the first 5 would probably be impressive for anyone, and then I'm afraid they'd fall off a cliff.

2001 - beat #8 Fresno St
2003 - beat #19 TCU
2006 - beat #7 Oklahoma
2008 - beat #17 Oregon
2009 - beat #16 Oregon, beat #3 TCU
2010 - beat #13 Va Tech, beat #20 Utah
2011 - beat #19 Georgia
2014 - beat #12 Arizona
2017 - beat #19 San Diego St

Okay, so 5 of the 11 wins over ranked teams are non-P5 programs.  Those would be sort of ho-hum wins for an Alabama or Ohio State, right (except maybe TCU at #3).  Anyways, look at what's missing.  In the seasons skipped over, Boise either lost to any ranked teams they played, or more often, did not play even one ranked team.  

Now let's look at 2016 Alabama, who lost to Clemson in the national championship game.
beat #20 USC
beat #19 Ole Miss
beat #16 Arkansas
beat #9 Tennessee
beat #6 Texas A&M
beat #15 LSU
beat #16 Auburn
beat #15 Florida
beat #4 Washington
The Tide had nearly as many wins over ranked teams in one season as Boise has had....ever.  No, this Alabama season isn't the norm.  No, Boise hasn't had as many opportunities, etc.  That's all true.  But fair or not, Boise hasn't amassed it's impressive winning percentage against anything resembling even an average schedule.  Credit to them for their record, credit to them for moving up in conference quality through the years, but they're still not on even ground with the P5 programs.




Yeah, I think everyone gets that.  No one is saying Boise is as good as Bama or Ohio St but the 80% accomplishment for Boise doesn’t need or deserve an asterisk.
I know the default argument is “Boise couldn’t win 80% of its games with a P5 schedule.”  I mean, yeah, no shit.  Given all the disadvantages they already have against P5 schools having to play them regularly would kill them.
But go back to 08 when Saban came to Bama.  If he were given Boise’s budget to work with in regards to salaries, facilities, and recruiting does anyone think he’d have had the same decade there? I don’t.
That’s why I said it’s all relative.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #55 on: July 23, 2018, 06:25:20 PM »
But the other side of that, acknowledging all that you've said, is that there is a definitive line between P5 and G5 programs, just as there is between G5 and FCS.  It's just not specifically drawn.

We could throw all of this out the door and worship at the feet of Mt. Union's HC, but we're smarter than that.  He gets his credit, in a context.  Boise State gets its credit, in a context - because that context is so different from USC or Texas or Alabama.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier
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