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much easier to go 10-2 in the old big 12 than the new SEC

but, it seems better to take losses from LSU and A&M, than KSU and ISU

Texas, Oklahoma formally ask to join the SEC (hookem.com)

July 1, 2025

There's no way the 2025 date is realistic.  It's more like a strategy because they know the Big 12 will long implode before then.  They're simply keeping up appearances while they negotiate a better exit penalty and I'm betting they will begin play next season in the SEC.  If one Big 12 program gets an invite to another P5 conference then it's over.  The B12 formally dissolves and OU/Tex get what they want sooner.  Nobody wants to play in a zombie conference for 4 more seasons.  

There's no way the 2025 date is realistic.  It's more like a strategy because they know the Big 12 will long implode before then.  They're simply keeping up appearances while they negotiate a better exit penalty and I'm betting they will begin play next season in the SEC.  If one Big 12 program gets an invite to another P5 conference then it's over.  The B12 formally dissolves and OU/Tex get what they want sooner.  Nobody wants to play in a zombie conference for 4 more seasons. 

I think youre wrong on this one

Currently the Big12 has 8 teams and with a little effort could go to 10 teams

if they dont lose more then 2 teams to poaching they have a good chance of surviving 

this assumes they will be able to get some kind of tv deal which I think they can

Texas has been losing to Kansas, BYU, Maryland, etc, and they have a worse coach now than they did then.

They are far more likely to go 2-10 than 10-2.

If they lose to those teams routinely in the future,  the whole thing is moot, they would not make playoffs in any conference.

The likelihood of the Rump 12 (trademark CWS) getting a TV deal they can live with is not good.  The Athletic did a deep dive on TV numbers and it is very telling.  Briefly, OU & Texas averaged about 3.5 million viewers per game.  The other 8 averaged about 880,000.  They calculated the remaining 8 teams TV value based on the current contract at about $12 mil per each team or less than half of what they are getting now.  The shares of bowl money without OU & TX will also be reduced.
This doesn't have anything to do with the quality of football these teams play.  There are some good teams and very good coaches.  Those coaches will be poached.  Mike Gundy and Matt Campbell turned down major P5 jobs.  They won't be able to if their salaries take major hits.

The likelihood of the Rump 12 (trademark CWS) getting a TV deal they can live with is not good.  The Athletic did a deep dive on TV numbers and it is very telling.  Briefly, OU & Texas averaged about 3.5 million viewers per game.  The other 8 averaged about 880,000.  They calculated the remaining 8 teams TV value based on the current contract at about $12 mil per each team or less than half of what they are getting now.  The shares of bowl money without OU & TX will also be reduced.
This doesn't have anything to do with the quality of football these teams play.  There are some good teams and very good coaches.  Those coaches will be poached.  Mike Gundy and Matt Campbell turned down major P5 jobs.  They won't be able to if their salaries take major hits.

Didn't Texas and OU take a larger share anyways?  So you'd have to calculate the payout based on not having to share more revenue with TX/OU, and maybe calculate how much a UH and Cincinnati would bring to the table.  But more importantly you'd have to compare that to how much the AAC would be able to payout.  I'm betting that the AAC would still not be able to match what a revised Big 12 would bring.  

Also I know the regional model for conferences is mostly dead but it still makes a lot of sense for the non-revenue sports (womens sports, olympic sports, etc).  I think we will at some point see football and mens BB partitioned out into their own conference with the other sports settling into a different model.  Call it a hybrid model.  Of course the bigger schools will have more money so they can continue to pony up more travel expenses.