I agree with all of this except ND.
Notre Dame:
I think that Notre Dame would have been a great addition years ago when the league looked at them but not today. My perception is that their fandom is slowly shrinking as the country as a whole becomes less religious and the religious portion becomes less Christian. When my dad was a kid the big religious divide in America was between Catholics and Protestant's. My dad's catholic friends had to get "permission" from their priest to attend friends' weddings in protestant churches. My point is that the catholic/protestant divide was serious business. Catholics saw Protestants as heathen non-Christians while protestants saw Catholics as Papal worshipping idolaters. Meanwhile, back then, the entire national population of atheists, Jews, and Muslims would probably have fit in one football stadium.
Today I think that most Catholics and Protestants see each other as sharing a religion just with slightly different customs and the bigger divide is between Christians and everyone else. That, I think, makes Catholics less predisposed to be fans of Notre Dame.
Secondly, Notre Dame's academics simply are not up to B1G standards. Notre Dame fans usually laugh when they hear me say that because Notre Dame's undergrad ranking is very good. Per USNR they are #19 which would be second among B1G athletic members behind only Northwestern and just ahead of Michigan (#24). However, it is also behind Chicago (#6) and John's Hopkins (#9).
The more important issue academically is research. This is slightly dated but here is a list of Research spending by B1G (and quasi B1G) Universities:
- #1 Johns Hopkins $2.6B
- #2 Michigan $1.5B
- #6 Wisconsin $1.2B
- #17 Minnesota $922M
- #22 Ohio State $864M
- #23 Penn State $855M
- #29 Northwestern $752M
- #32 Michigan State $695M
- #33 Rutgers $682M
- #36 Illinois $642M
- #37 Purdue $623M
- #43 Maryland $549M
- #45 Indiana $540M
- #49 Iowa $494M
- #55 Chicago $433M
- #77 Nebraska $302M
Notre Dame is #101 at $213M.
Highly ranked Research Universities that might be plausible additions:
- #8 Dook, $1.1B
- #11 UNC, $1.1B
- #16 Pitt, $940M (I still don't think we'd add them for athletic and footprint reasons but at least they would be a good add academically.
- #24 GaTech, $804M (Probably too far away geographically but great academics and in the fast-growing ATL media market).
- #46 VaTech, $522M (Good athletic fit, decent geographic fit, good academic fit).
- #47 NCST, $500M
- #51 UVA, $470M
The top two there are Dook and UNC but I think we'd be looking to add two states to the footprint not two schools from one state. UNC is a much better addition than Dook because they are more similar to our existing schools (Mostly State Flagship Universities) and while Dook has arguably better Basketball, the rest of UNC's athletic programs would run rings around Dook's.
Thus I think the logical additions are UNC and one of UVA/VaTech. Both NC and VA are populous (#9 and #12 respectively) and fast growing states.
If the SEC is going to 16 teams, and if the Big Ten follows this model, then . . .
Notre Dame will always have a national following and is in the Big Ten footprint.
In 2020 Iowa State's research dollars were $439M as if that matters. Iowa State's fan base has been increasing, and stadium size is now > 60,000. Iowa State is an AAU school. Iowa State's fan base is rabid. Iowa State now has a larger student body than Iowa, probably for the past 3-4 years. Iowa has justified Iowa State's ascendance by scheduling ISU annually, so ISU is admitted to the Big Ten because Iowa didn't keep its thumb down hard enough on ISU.
Texas and Oklahoma go to the SEC to get to 16.
The Big Ten adds Iowa State and Notre Dame to get to 16.
The remaining 6 Big 12 schools form a pact that says we all go together or we remain together in our own conference. All 6 teams go to the PAC-12 to increase its TV ratings; it becomes the PAC-18.
The other Power 4 conferences now want to go to 18, but it will take time. So, yes we are going to 4 power conferences.
You can fill in the blanks. West Va. probably goes to the ACC.
The Big Ten, and SEC are now at 16, and looking for two more each. The ACC is looking for 4 more. There will be 72 major college teams. Maybe one or two more can play in for the tournament.
Of the remaining schools we have UCF, USF, BYU, and Houston looking for homes. Who else are the viable football schools of the Top 72 deserving of homes in the top conferences? Maybe we have another group that can play-in to the four conferences, and a bottom tier group of conference teams that drop out, like the premier league. I think 14 is more manageable in two divisions, but television is driving this market, and we will probably have 18 teams per conference in two divisions of 9 teams. I don't like it but that's where it is headed. I am not feeling it for BYU, but then . . . we could have teams that play-in to each league, and relegate out.
