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Topic: ELA October 12 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** October 09, 2019, 09:35:14 AM »

#16 Michigan Wolverines (2-1, 4-1) at Illinois Fighting Illini (0-2, 2-3)

NOON - Champaign, IL - ABC

The Illini beat Michigan in 2008 and 2009, their first back to back wins in the series since the 50s, and then scared them with the 67-65 barnburner in 2010. Since then Michigan has put the series back on track with three wins by a combined score of 117-22. It's unclear whether they will have to face old friend Brandon Peters, former program savior, who has not yet cleared concussion protocol. He hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, ranking 14th of 15 qualified Big Ten quarterbacks in Total QBR. If he can't go, it's likely redshirt freshman Matt Robinson, who saw extended time against Minnesota once Peters went out, and didn't exactly impress. He completed 51% of his passes, barely even tried to go downfield, and was sacked 3 times. I think everyone knew that if this team couldn't run the ball, they'd be in big trouble, considering how bad they were last year even with an elite running game. This probably isn't the week to get that sorted out. Michigan's defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in their last 9 quarters. Last week made it clear that the offense is not fixed, not even close, but I think it also changed what we thought Michigan's defensive ceiling was. If the thought was they could be good, maybe even very good, but not great or elite, that appears to be wrong. The improved play of the line is the major reason, as the Hawkeyes were not able to get any run game going, and Nate Stanley was pressured unlike I think I've ever seen any quarterback get harassed behind an Iowa offensive line. The hopes that the Rutgers game fixed the offense? Not so much. Shea Patterson had another bad game, down to #9 in the Big Ten in Total QBR, #10 in raw QBR, although the major culprit continues to be the offensive line, which is probably the most disappointing positional unit of any team in the Big Ten thus far. They have the talent, they have the coaching, it baffles me why they simply cannot open any holes for the run game, and remain in the bottom quarter of the FBS in sack rate. Oddly, Indiana always gives Michigan problems (Wolverines won the last four by 11, 7, 10, 7), but aside from that, the only time in Harbaugh's tenure that a team with a losing record stayed within 3 touchdowns of Michigan was the Michigan State game in 2016. Michigan puts their foot down when they should every time.

MICHIGAN 38, ILLINOIS 12

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-3, 1-4) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-2, 3-2)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - BTN

For two teams that are both winless in conference play, these two teams could not feel more different about their chances going forward. Rutgers has been outscored 130-7 through three games, they've fired their coach, their starting quarterback retired, the guy who replaced him along with their best offensive player both quit the team prior to last week, to preserve their redshirt to presumably transfer. Just when you think Rutgers is about to hit rock bottom, they find a way to sink lower. On the flip side, Indiana discovered in a late loss at Michigan State, that they have a bonafide stud at quarterback. I think it's clear that the Hoosiers have plenty of offensive weapons, and the line is fine. They made Peyton Ramsey look largely good, but any question over whether Ramsey could earn his starting job back were answered by Michael Penix's performance in East Lansing. Returning from injury, Penix completed 79% of his passes, with three touchdowns and no picks. While he averaged just 8.6 ypc, he took what was given. When he saw a play to be made, he was willing to make it, and just barely missed on a pair of deep balls that could have changed the outcome. They do need to establish some balance, as Stevie Scott's semi-emergence from a subpar 2019 against UConn, fell back into ineffectiveness against Michigan State. That said, what can Rutgers possibly do? Michigan was taking all sorts of questions after their trip to Madison resulted in Wisconsin shutting down their offense, and turned around and lit up the Scarlet Knights to 52 points. Maryland's explosive offense from the first two weeks was on fumes, so they put up 45 on Rutgers last week. Based on the recent trend of Rutgers showing up to cure an underperforming offense, you'd expect them to be playing Nebraska this week. Instead they draw an Indiana offense that seems primed to take off. It will also be on the Hoosier defense to show up just a little bit, because Indiana is in danger of slipping back into the pre-Tom Allen Indiana that had all the offense they needed, and just needed a little defense, that they couldn't get. Giving up 51 to Ohio State is fine, but letting Michigan State score 40 on you? That's a problem. Rutgers hangs a big Rutgers score, but that ain't nearly enough.

INDIANA 40, RUTGERS 16

Maryland Terrapins (1-1, 3-2) at Purdue Boilermakers (0-2, 1-4)

NOON - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

Maryland got their Piscataway penicillin last week, and now look to keep it rolling against an underperforming and battered Purdue team. Purdue is running out of time to just get on track enough for a bowl, and will continue to try and get there with Jack Plummer, who underwhelmed again last year. Granted he had next to no time behind an offensive line that simply didn't stand a chance against the Penn State pass rush, who tallied 10 sacks. Penn State is top 5 nationally in sack rate, the Terps are not getting to the quarterback at nearly that rate, 12th in the Big Ten, but the problem is that everyone knows what Purdue has to do, because the Boilermakers cannot run the ball at all, so teams are just pinning their ears back and attacking. Purdue ranks #129 out of 130 in the FBS in yards per rush (1.9), rushing yards per game (51.4) and rush attempts per game (26.4). With no balance this offense simply can't function. Maryland is also without their starting quarterback as Josh Jackson is out with the sprained ankle that took him out of the Rutgers win last week. The Terps are far better equipped to sustain a quarterback injury, with Tyrell Pigrome taking over after getting plenty of experience the past two seasons, and a really good running game, that is actually even better with Pigrome in there. The Maryland offensive line hasn't been a ton better than Purdue's, so a struggling Purdue defense needs to mimic Maryland and get into the backfield often to aid a pass defense that has been abysmal thus far. Through two Big Ten games, Purdue is giving up 330 ypg through the air, on 13.0 ypa with an 80% completion rate. The Purdue season appeared to be going off the rails prior to the injuries, but they have just exaserbating things. When you aren't a helmet, traction gained can be lost in a hurry, and Purdue can't afford the type of season that gives back some of the ground they've gained on the recruiting trail, and I worry that's where we are headed. Purdue almost certainly can't get bowl eligible with a loss here, at home, against another team looking for bowl eligibility, who is also without their starting quarterback, at home, but they are a total mess right now

MARYLAND 31, PURDUE 24

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** October 09, 2019, 10:26:40 AM »

This week's games based on the current power rankings:

#2 Wisconsin vs #5 Michigan State
#3 Penn State at #6 Iowa
#4 Michigan at #13 Illinois
#7 Minnesota vs #8 Nebraska
#9 Maryland at #12 Purdue
#10 Indiana vs #14 Rutgers

#1 Ohio State and #11 Northwestern are both off in advance of their Friday night tilt next week.

This is a really good group of games. Other than Michigan/Illinois and Indiana/Rutgers I could see each game going either way.

fezzador · « **Reply #2 on:** October 09, 2019, 12:35:49 PM »

The more I think about it, the more I think Iowa and Michigan are more or less mirror images of each other (Iowa is probably more Michigan Jr than the other way around). Both have strong defenses that might give up a first down or two, but clamp down when the opponent is in plus territory and do a fantastic job of forcing teams to settle for FG attempts instead of touchdowns. Both need to work on offensive consistency as they can move the ball, but tend to stall at inopportune times.

Maybe last week was the game that the switch is turned on, and the Wolverines go on a tear. Barring further injuries or poor play, they're at least 9-3 material and they seem to be capable of splitting the OSU and PSU games.

Geolion91 · « **Reply #3 on:** October 10, 2019, 07:45:49 AM »

Quote from: fezzador on October 09, 2019, 12:35:49 PM

The more I think about it, the more I think Iowa and Michigan are more or less mirror images of each other (Iowa is probably more Michigan Jr than the other way around). Both have strong defenses that might give up a first down or two, but clamp down when the opponent is in plus territory and do a fantastic job of forcing teams to settle for FG attempts instead of touchdowns. Both need to work on offensive consistency as they can move the ball, but tend to stall at inopportune times.

Maybe last week was the game that the switch is turned on, and the Wolverines go on a tear. Barring further injuries or poor play, they're at least 9-3 material and they seem to be capable of splitting the OSU and PSU games.

That sounds a lot like the 2017 Iowa team.

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** October 11, 2019, 03:23:12 PM »

Noon games in, may not have time for the rest

grillrat · « **Reply #5 on:** October 12, 2019, 04:46:56 PM »

You still really suck at picking Purdue games.

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Topic: ELA October 12 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 12 Breakdown

medinabuckeye1

Re: ELA October 12 Breakdown

fezzador

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Geolion91

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ELA

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grillrat

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