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Topic: ELA October 6 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** October 02, 2018, 03:05:59 PM »

Maryland Terrapins (1-0, 3-1) at #15 Michigan Wolverines (2-0, 4-1)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

I think most figured that by this juncture of the season, we'd either get our Harbaugh versus his first defensive coordinator in Ann Arbor storylines, or Durkin would be out. Instead it's neither, as the Maryland program remains in limbo. You have to give the staff and kids a ton of credit for being where they are at this point. That Texas win keeps looking better and better, and they opened conference play with a resounding win over what had been a pretty hot Minnesota defense. The Terps did it by getting back to an explosive ground game, the way they have for the past few years. They might not consistently hit you for 4 yards, but they are going to find way to get huge plays on the ground. They tallied 315 rushing yards on 8.5 ypc, with four different players having individual runs of over 20 yards. When you remove the quarterbacks from the equation, the numbers become more eye popping, with 309 yards on 10.3 ypc. They did that against a Minnesota defense that had been one of the best in the league against the run. The challenge now is doing it against the run defense that ranks second in the conference in Michigan. The Wolverines defense hasn't exactly faced the strongest rushing opponents (only Western Michigan ranks in the top 50 nationally), but they've managed to hold opponents to just 2.4 ypc, #4 in the nation. Maryland knows they aren't going to lean on that front all day, they just need to hit their explosive plays when they have the chance. Michigan is one of only 12 teams nationally yet to allow a run of over 25 yards, although Maryland is also one of the 12. Last year that worked for Maryland, as Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson, as well as quarterback Ryan Brand, broke runs of over 25 yards, and the Terps put up 5.6 ypc against Michigan's defense. The problem was that Michigan's offense ran out to a 28 point lead, and forced Maryland into a situation where they had to throw 38 passes. If Maryland has to throw 38 passes, this is going to get just as ugly as last year. If Maryland can keep it a game late, they've proven their running game works against anyone, even Michigan. It's the Maryland defense that people are sleeping on, ranking #7 nationally with just 4.3 ypp allowed. Their defensive efficiency numbers show a slightly different story, ranking #50 nationally, and #8 in the conference, but that's more due to lack of competition offensively than lack of production. That's still solidly behind Michigan's, who ranks #11 nationally, and #2 in the Big Ten, behind only Michigan State. Give Matt Canada two weeks to prepare though, and while he may not be successful, he'll certainly come up with something that will give Don Brown headaches to prepare for. It's the reason I thought Michigan should have pursued Canada more strongly in the offseason, would have given them easily the top pair of coordinators in the nation. The Wolverines have gotten out to rough starts in both road games, but at home they've looked invincible. I expect a closer game than the Ann Arbor fans have been treated to to date, and Maryland will get their big plays, but they'll also get too many three and outs. Oh, and it features the second and third most penalized teams in the conference, so it might be a 4 hour affair.

MICHIGAN 34, MARYLAND 20

Northwestern Wildcats (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State Spartans (1-0, 3-1)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - FS1

Northwestern came out guns blazing on Saturday, looking for a massive home upset over a top 15 Michigan team, similar to the one they pulled off over this Michigan State program a year ago. The difference is that Northwestern offense was absolutely humming, while this one was not...and that was before their starting running back retired. The Wildcats ran out to a 17-0 lead in the first 17 minutes of the game, but it's clear that once the scripted plays ran out, so did Northwestern's offense. On the first three drives, the Wildcats accumulated 145 yards and 8 first downs, while putting up 17 points. Over the remaining 9 drives of the game, the Wildcats were shut out, and had 57 yards of offense, only 7 first downs. The loss of Larkin was noticeable, with Northwestern mustering just 28 rushing yards on 0.8 ypc. Granted the 6 sacks also had something to do with that. Right around this time last year, the Northwestern offensive line looked like a complete mess against Wisconsin, and right as the calendar swung to October, they turned it around. Is that coming this year? If it is, there aren't any signs of it. That means the Spartans defensive front should eat. The pass rush is finally coming around the past two weeks, and if the Spartans can get there with four, that should really ease some pressure on the back end. The problem is that as bad (inexplicably) as Northwestern's offensive line is (PFF ranks it #12 in the conference), Michigan State's has actually been worse, sliding in at #13. The issues are in run blocking, where PFF determined a week ago that Connor Hayward had one of the two best weeks for a Big Ten running back...while running for 48 yards on 3.2 ypc. I said in the preseason that Michigan State was woefully thin, and was fortunate to have fantastic injury luck last season. So far in 2018, that has not been the case, losing their top cornerback in the preseason, and their punter on an uncalled late hit. But it's been offensively where the damage has been the worst. L.J. Scott hasn't played since the first half of the Arizona State game, the injury to Cody White means three of the top four WRs are down, and seemingly most impactful has been multiple injuries along the offensive line. It's clear from how he looked early in the season, that the coaching staff wanted a more composed Brian Lewerke, less gun slinging, less undesigned run plays. That wasn't working, he looked tentative, and it was even hurting his passing. Late in the Indiana game, it seems a shift was allowed to occur, and Lewerke looks freer, more like the guy we saw last year. Right now, on paper, a dominant Spartan defense (ranked #1 in the conference and top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency) plus Lewerke, at home, should be enough. But the quick passing game, as a running game has given Michigan State fits the past two seasons. The Wildcats have scored 93 points, while throwing the ball a combined 83 times. Last year neither team could run the ball worth a damn, but Lewerke and Thorson combined to go 73-105 for 801 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. It seems doubtful that happens again, Lewerke has Felton Davis and some walk ons to throw to, and Thorson looks like a shell of his 2017 self. But this is the type of offense Dantonio's defenses have traditionally struggled with. The key is how quickly Michigan State can get there with four. If they do, they'll be able to disrupt the timing routes, and rely on their talent edge. If not, it may start to look like last year.

MICHIGAN STATE 31, NORTHWESTERN 16

Illinois Fighting Illini (0-1, 2-2) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-2, 1-4)

NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

For the loser, it likely means no more wins the rest of the season. For the winner, it probably means no more wins the rest of the season, starting Sunday. I assumed Rutgers had packed it in entirely, and granted it was after Indiana ran out to a 24-7 lead by scoring on their first four possessions, but Rutgers clawed back last week and got it to within 7 with 4 minutes to play. The Scarlet Knights defense couldn't get the ball back one time to their offense though, including jumping offsides on a 4th and 1 in Indiana territory. The Illini have had plenty of time to rest, after getting a bye week following a Friday night game. The last time we saw the Illini, they gave Penn State everything they wanted for three quarters, before melting down in the 4th. The Illinois offense actually played well, gaining 400 yards, but the defense was abysmal, as it has been all year. The Illini are dead last in the Big Ten in yards allowed per play both rushing (5.4) and passing (8.3). Nice thing for them is that Rutgers has an abysmal pass game, averaging only 4.6 yards per attempt, third worst in the FBS, and worst in the Power 5 by almost a full yard behind North Carolina (5.5). Both teams have two quarterbacks, with nobody separating themselves. Rutgers' issue is that both Art Sitkowski and Giovanni Rescigno have been awful. Based on Total QBR, they are the two worst quarterbacks in the Big Ten. At this point Rutgers season is going nowhere, and Rescigno is a senior, while Sitkowski is a freshman. Rescigno's absence from the Indiana loss seems to signal to me that Ash is going to ride the future. Illinois has gotten slightly better play, but their rotation was due to an injury. A.J. Bush got injured in the Western Illinois game, and gave way M.J. Rivers. Like Rutgers, if Bush is better, it's by an insignificant amount, and he's a graduate senior, while Rivers is a freshman, so taking game reps away from Rivers to play a senior seems unwarranted. Rutgers coach Chris Ash said this week that the issues boil down to Rutgers beating Rutgers, and that the issues can be fixed internally. I'll buy that in a 7 point loss to Indiana, but when you are getting blown out by Buffalo, sorry the other team is also beating you. Rutgers has probably the best offensive player in this game in Raheem Blackshear, who had his best game of the season a year ago in their win in Champaign, with 87 yards on just 6 carries. He's been the lone bright spot this year, the Scarlet Knights have just fallen behind too quickly to run the ball. If Rutgers can stay even-ish, and really run the ball, they can win. The problem is while Illinois' quarterbacks aren't great, I trust them to make the plays in the occurrence the play is there. Against Rutgers, they plays should be there. I don't trust Art Sitkowski nearly as much take take advantage of what should be numerous Illini defensive gaffs. I also don't think either of these coaches are back in 2019.

ILLINOIS 31, RUTGERS 24

Iowa Hawkeyes (0-1, 3-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-1, 3-1)

Minneapolis, MN - 3:30 - BTN

The biggest determinant of how this one swings might be where Iowa's head is at. Last we saw them they were dropping a home game to Wisconsin that may as well have been the West Division Championship Game. That was followed by a bye week. So have they been dwelling for two weeks, or has that given them time to refocus, aim for a New Years Day bowl, and hope Bucky falters? Just like last year, the Hawkeyes were undone by turnovers, finishing -3 in a game they led with a minute left, and still lost by 11. The Hawkeyes had boasted one of the top run defenses in the nation, and while 210 rushing yards on 4.8 ypc doesn't look great, against Wisconsin that isn't terrible. Far more concerning was the fact that they let Alex Hornibrook complete 77% of his passes, the highest mark of his career in a game where he attempted at least 20 passes. The run defense still ranks second in the conference at 84.0 ypg, and third at 2.7 ypc, but the pass defense is starting to be a bit of a concern. They've also only generated two interceptions, lowest in the conference. IN years past, that would be of no concern against Minnesota, but this Gophers team seems slightly more pass happy, attempting 29.5 passes per game, way up from 19.3 a season ago. That's been more out of need than anything, with injuries gutting the Minnesota run game. Zack Annexstad has avoided interceptions, but his 52.3% completion percentage needs to come up. Rutgers QB disaster aside, that's the lowest mark for a Big Ten starting quarterback. The injury bug hasn't been limited to the offense, as now Minnesota's defense is without Antoine Winfield Jr., their best player, coming off a week where Maryland put up 42 points on what was supposedly a strong unit. On the year, they still rank #11 nationally in defensive S&P+, behind only Michigan and Iowa among conference foes. But that offense is still languishing down at #115, 4th worst in the Power 5. Iowa is hoping we don't notice they are only at #92. It seems the past two weeks Nate Stanley has woken up, after a sluggish start to the season. That is needed because the Hawkeyes are not running the ball like a Kirk Ferentz team typically does. This might be a week to get that on track, against a Gopher defense that is the 3rd worst in the conference, giving up 4.7 ypc, and was absolutely trucked two weekends ago when Maryland piled up over 10 ypc from their running backs (309 yards on 30 carries). Minnesota has to be willing to pass the ball on first and second down. Their backfield is too thin, and Iowa is too good against the run to consistently be putting Annexstad in 3rd and 7s. They have to exploit the Iowa secondary, but the question is, with who? Emotional game in the New Brickhouse, and I think Minnesota keeps it closer than expected, but in a game between two good defenses, Iowa at least has a little bit of offense too.

IOWA 24, MINNESOTA 20

Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-2, 0-4) at #16 Wisconsin Badgers (1-0, 3-1)

7:30 - Madison, WI - BTN

48-17. 70-31. 59-24. 38-17. Those are 4 of the scores Wisconsin has won by in winning 6 of 7 matchups as Big Ten foes, in what ideally is the preeminent West Division matchup. All of those Nebraska teams were substantially better than what this one has shown thus far. There is some silver lining, the offense is maybe starting to figure things out. After getting completely shut down two weeks ago in Ann Arbor, Nebraska was never really a threat to beat Purdue, but they did put up 582 yards of offense and 28 points. Considering they didn't even hit 100 yards of offense against Michigan until garbage time, that is a step forward. The problem is that's a Purdue defense that is giving up on average 447 yards per game, second worst in the Big Ten. By Wisconsin standards though, this defense is also very underwhelming, giving up 5.5 yards per play, and generating a Big Ten low 3 sacks, good for 2nd fewest in the FBS, for only 13 yards lost, an FBS worst. Everything broke down against Michigan because the Huskers offensive line was so badly overmatched. It seems odd to say this about a Wisconsin team, but here Nebraska may not be. It's also clear how vital Adrian Martinez is to everything this offense does. He wasn't 100% against Michigan, but he looked to be at least close last week. 74% of the Cornhuskers' snaps were either Martinez passes or runs, and he accounted for 414 yards. Some other skill position players finally showed up too. Tailback Devine Ozigbo had a career high 170 rushing yards, and JD Spielman finally looked like the preseason All-Big Ten player he was. But for all the good they showed last week, this is still a team two weeks removed from a 50 point beatdown from Michigan, and was still trailing Purdue by 21 points at home in the 4th quarter. The offensive transition was supposed to take some time, but concerning is just how bad the defense has been. They are last in the conference in scoring defense, although the advanced numbers do look a bit better. Offenses are too good now to rely on consistently forcing punts, and Nebraska's simply isn't creating turnovers, a Big Ten low of 3, which is why they've allowed the most red zone trip, red zone scores, and red zone touchdowns. Teams are stacking drives on them, which is why they are also last in the conference in time of possession, as the only team averaging under 28 minutes per game. They themselves are not extending drives, last in the conference in third down conversions (32.1%) and 4th down conversions (14.3%). In what was clearly a transitioning year, Nebraska needed to find the hidden yardage to turn from a 4ish win team into a 5-6 win team and sneak into a bowl. Instead they are giving away those yards, which has dropped them from the bad side of mediocre to just plain bad. Those things are also correctable, and enough other pieces are there if they do. The problem is night games in Madison are typically not the place to correct ongoing mistakes. Wisconsin needs to use this to fix some things going forward. The trench play is not what we've come to expect from Wisconsin, which might be a high bar when PFF has graded them as the top offensive line in the Big Ten to date. But as already addressed the defensive line has been underwhelming, and in pass blocking a combination of underperformance by the tackles, and Hornibrook holding the ball too long has led to a sack rate of 6.93%. Wisconsin survived in Iowa City, in a game where they were outplayed for most of the game, and now they are in the driver's seat, once again, in the Big Ten West. They've had two weeks to fix their issues, and this is their last dry run before a trip to Ann Arbor next weekend which will determine if this is another Conference Championship Game participant year, or something more.

WISCONSIN 41, NEBRASKA 10

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

Indiana Hoosiers (1-1, 4-1) at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 5-0)

4:00 - Columbus, OH - FOX

The fact that this is probably the game of the week in the conference shows just how weak the lineup is, combined with Northwestern being a major disappointment. Just have to get through to next week, where we get both Wisconsin-Michigan and Penn State-Michigan State. Will Ohio State have a hiccup? Remember last year that stunning blowout at the hands of Iowa came on the heels of Ohio State's comeback win over Penn State. In 2016 the lone regular season loss came in a surprising (at the time) loss to Penn State the week after squeaking past #8 Wisconsin in overtime. In 2014, the Buckeyes followed a big win over #7 Michigan State in East Lansing, with a 7 point escape at home against Minnesota. That makes it three straight times the Buckeyes have picked up a big mid-season win, they've followed it with a clunker. A year ago these two schools opened not just Big Ten play, but their 2017 seasons against each other in a Thursday night game in Bloomington, where the storyline was Kevin Wilson making his debut as Ohio State offensive coordinator against the school that had fired him as head coach just a few months prior for player abuse. At least that was the story before the game. Once the game got going, the story was the fits that Indiana's offense was giving Ohio State's vaunted defensive line. A touchdown pass from Richard Lagow to Ian Thomas gave Indiana a 21-20 lead late in the 3rd quarter, before Ohio State scored 3 touchdowns in 7 minutes, and added another one late for good measure. The Buckeyes put up nearly 600 yards of offense that night, against what turned out to actually be a pretty good Indiana defense, that finished #26 in the nation in S&P+. They seem to be right there again this year, ranked #22. The problem, which was unfathomable coming off the Wilson years, is that Indiana can't seem to generate any offense now. They threw for 272 yards against Michigan State, but on only 5.9 ypa, and averaged under 1.0 ypc on the ground. That is forgiveable, but they followed that by only scoring 24 points, and averaging under 4.0 ypc against a lousy Rutgers defense. Worse, after getting out to a 24-7 halftime lead, the Hoosiers were shut out after halftime. If they don't get Stevie Scott rolling again, it will continue to be a struggle offensively. In three non-conference games, the true freshman ran for 388 yards (129.3 ypg) on 5.6 ypc. In Big Ten play he is averaging only 38.0 ypg on 2.6 ypc. Is he hitting a freshman wall? Not many 18 year olds could handle 51 carries in their first two college games. He wasn't even supposed to be the starter, so getting Morgan Ellison back from whatever he is suspended for would be a big help. He has returned to practice this week, but apparently remains suspended. As good as Indiana's defense is, nobody is getting Ohio State off the field. They are averaging 29.8 first downs per game, best in the conference by nearly 5 per game. They are converting 50% of their third downs, best in the conference as well. So Indiana has to do what they do, and that's generate takeaways, of which they already have 10, most in the conference. Give them a Turnover Limestone or something. The problem is the Buckeyes are averaging only 0.6 turnovers per game, also best in the conference, and they've only had 1 turnover total since the opener.

OHIO STATE 38, INDIANA 17

Mdot21 · « **Reply #1 on:** October 03, 2018, 01:23:51 AM »

agree with you 100% on the Matt Canada line. That was a wasted opportunity. Didn't even try to go snatch him. Harbaugh could've been playing for a title this year had he fired Pep Hamilton, hired Canada and turned the reigns over to him.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #2 on:** October 03, 2018, 11:36:35 AM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on October 03, 2018, 01:23:51 AM

agree with you 100% on the Matt Canada line. That was a wasted opportunity. Didn't even try to go snatch him. Harbaugh could've been playing for a title this year had he fired Pep Hamilton, hired Canada and turned the reigns over to him.

Ooooo, that woulda been quite a fireball. Canada has issues working with most people. Jimmy has issues there. Could have been fun.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3 on:** October 03, 2018, 11:55:35 AM »

Canada has issues if his head coach keeps him on a leash. He's a guy where you just have to let him do his thing.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #4 on:** October 03, 2018, 12:26:20 PM »

Is he at all akin to the current FAU HC?

bayareabadger · « **Reply #5 on:** October 03, 2018, 12:39:44 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2018, 11:55:35 AM

Canada has issues if his head coach keeps him on a leash. He's a guy where you just have to let him do his thing.

A couple things:
-He's got a rep for being hard to work with beyond that.
-Somehow he managed to get to defensive coaches to want to leash him despite a defense-friendly power scheme. Beyond that, he worked for four head coaches in five stints from 2011 to 2017, he had issues with three (there was some smoke at NC State)
-I recall part of his thing at UW being motioning Ball out so Danny O'Brien could have an empty backfield (he used to be a big QB run guy). That part gets slightly forgotten.
And all of this is with a run of defensive coaches.
Even if he was just a guy who needs to be allowed to do his thing (I think that part is a tad simplified), that ain't happening with Harbaugh.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #6 on:** October 03, 2018, 01:06:15 PM »

All of that is true. Especially the last part. Not a chance that one would have worked out.

LetsGoPeay · « **Reply #7 on:** October 03, 2018, 01:55:34 PM »

I always liked what he did at IU. I’d love to see him back next year if DeBord retires.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #8 on:** October 03, 2018, 02:10:07 PM »

This weekend's games based on our Current Power Rankings:

#8 Indiana @ #1 Ohio State
#13 Nebraska @ #3 Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ #4 Michigan
#10 Northwestern @ #5 Michigan State
#6 Iowa @ #11 Minnesota
#12 Illinois @ #14 Rutgers

Only the last two have the seemingly better team on the road.

ELA · « **Reply #9 on:** October 05, 2018, 01:47:35 PM »

All picks in

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #10 on:** October 05, 2018, 02:10:49 PM »

Quote from: ELA on October 05, 2018, 01:47:35 PM

All picks in

said this before and I will say it again, I truly appreciate that you do these and the time and effort you put in. I enjoy the hell out of them and look forward to them each week.
thank you!

FearlessF · « **Reply #11 on:** October 05, 2018, 02:34:50 PM »

agreed, solid work on the Huskers

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Topic: ELA October 6 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 6 Breakdown

Mdot21

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bayareabadger

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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bayareabadger

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847badgerfan

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LetsGoPeay

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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Honestbuckeye

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FearlessF

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