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Topic: ELA September 24 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** September 20, 2022, 12:26:34 PM »

Chattanooga Mocs (3-0) at Illinois Fighting Illini (0-1, 2-1)

8:30 (Thu) - Champaign, IL - BTN

ILLINOIS 34, CHATTANOOGA 10

Central Michigan Chippewas (1-2) at #14 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 3-0)

NOON - State College, PA - BTN

As Penn State continues rotating between road game buzzsaws and home MAC games, the Nittany Lions should be able to exhale this week. Penn State has clearly the best two wins in the Big Ten, and while the computers are adjusting accordingly, the polls are (predictably) slow. How Penn State is just #14 is shocking. SP+ has them #9, and they one of the lower rating systems on them. The Massey composite rankings have them #6, with one system having them as high as #2. James Franklin has been vocal about the scheduling, saying he doesn't want Penn State to continue opening conference play on the road, and that he doesn't want these marquee home and home series, like against Auburn. When you win both of those games, including sweeping the Auburn series, you can't accuse him of sour grapes, but it does seem like an odd thing to be complaining about right now. Central Michigan has some scary offensive pieces, and perhaps a better quarterback than Auburn, so the Nittany Lions' defense should get tested. Daniel Richardson is averaging nearly 300 yards per game through the air, and while Lew Nichols II, you know is going to get plenty of touches, he has yet to really get going. Central Michigan has turned, quietly, into the Group of Five's offensive tackle U, and replacing a pair of 1st team All-MAC guys, who are now playing Sundays, has taken longer to get over. In losses to Oklahoma State and South Alabama, he totaled just 92 yards on 41 carries (2.2 ypc). He did break out for 166 yards in a blowout win over FCS Bucknell last week, but maybe don't give your best skill position player 30 carries in a 41 point win the week before having to head to Happy Valley? Nick Singleton is doing even more damage, on a much lighter work load. He put up his second straight 100 yard effort, and for the third straight week, did it on exactly 10 carries. Over the past two weeks, he has 303 yards and 4 TDs, on just 20 carries, for 151.5 ypg and 15.2 ypc.

PENN STATE 48, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 17

Indiana Hoosiers (1-0, 3-0) at Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1)

3:30 - Cincinnati, OH - espn2

Cincinnati owes 2020 Indiana at least a really nice gift basket. Not the 2021 Indiana they actually beat, but the IDEA of 2021 Indiana, bolstered by 2020 Indiana, which was an OSU win away from making the College Football Playoff. That, combined with a win over Notre Dame, gave Cincinnati the marquee pair of wins to give them a resume deserving of a shot. But the actual Indiana was not all that good. Part of that was the fact that Michael Penix, tried to play hurt, played poorly, and then shut it down for the year. Indiana never replaced that production. They haven't been outstanding this year, but did already pick up a conference win against what appears to be a decent Illinois team, and won a pair of close OOC games. This isn't 2020 Indiana, but with a win here, they seem to have a pretty good shot at a bowl bid. They have seemingly built on that 2020 season in recruiting, both with transfers and high schoolers. They brought in 15 players from the transfer portal, and their highest rated recruiting class in the 247 era. While the transfer, led by Missouri transfer quarterback Connor Bazelak have gotten most of the press, the freshmen have also helped bolster the Hoosiers. The biggest impact freshman is linebacker Dasan McCullough. The 4* edge rusher from right there in Bloomington, turned down offers from Ohio State and Alabama, to stay home, as the highest rated recruit of the 247 era, and he has made an immediate impact. Tom Allen turned that 2020 season into results on the recruiting trail. Even though 2021 was a step back, and despite playing in arguably the best recruiting division in college football, the ground work appears to be solid. But while they are slightly better than 2021, and Cincinnati is a half step worse, we are still just 4 games removed from this being a 2-10 team vs. a CFP participant.

CINCINNATI 35, INDIANA 19

Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) at Michigan State Spartans (2-1)

3:30 - East Lansing, MI - BTN

Both programs faced their first Power 5 opponent last week, both playing Pac 12 opponents, but with vastly different results. Michigan State continued their west coast struggles that are at 70+ years and counting, while Minnesota continued Colorado's fall the the pits of the FBS, let alone the Power 5. What Michigan State fans were most disappointed in was that in Year 3, Scottie Hazelton was still running his umbrella defense, keeping everything in front of them, but bringing very little pressure. Perhaps having it work last year, because eventually, if you forced D'Eriq King to have to complete enough passes, eventually he'd make a mistake; and Michigan couldn't finish drives in the end zone, tricked him into thinking this works. Against the better quarterbacks, it doesn't. C.J. Stroud and Aidan O'Connell particularly diced the Spartans up, and Michael Penix did the same. Michigan State playing without 3 defensive starters, being the leader at each level (DT Jacob Slade, LB Darius Snow, and S Xavier Henderson) certainly led to all kinds of communication issues. Snow is done for the year, but it's unclear whether Slade and/or Henderson will return. Safe to say those injuries played a bigger factor than Jayden Reed, the bigger name, who also didn't play. Keon Coleman and Tre Mosley more than picked up the slack there. Now Minnesota has to deal with an injury to their WR1 as well, with Chris Autman-Bell done for the year. It remains to be seen whether they have the pieces behind him that Michigan State has behind Reed. Autman-Bell went down in the 2nd quarter against Colorado, and still led the Gophers in receptions and receiving yards for the game. Next up at receiver is Michael Brown-Stephens, with 6 receptions on the year. They just gave Mo Ibrahim and Trey Potts 36 carries, and would certainly like to do that again. Over the past two seasons, the way to beat the Spartans has been to spread them out, and fire the ball all over the place. Not sure that's Minnesota at full health, and I feel less confident in it without Autman-Bell. I'll go with the home team.

MICHIGAN STATE 34, MINNESOTA 30

Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0)

7:00 - Piscataway, NJ - FS1

This one is for the sickos. Rutgers and Iowa are both in the top 3 or 4 of the Big Ten in all of the traditional defensive stats, while ranking #13 and #14 in offensive ypg. Spencer Petras showed some signs of life for the first time all season in Iowa's 27-0 win over Nevada. The bar was low, considering he was completing just 45% of his passes, for 100 passing ypg, no touchdowns and 2 picks. But he nearly doubled is ypa from the Cy-Hawk loss the week before, and considering how bad Iowa has been running the ball, Petras needs to at least be serviceable, particularly against the Rutgers front seven. The Scarlet Knights lead the Big Ten in run defense in ypc, while the Iowa offense ranks #14 in the stat. Getting back three receivers from injuries can't be overlooked as a factor either, there is something tangible to point to in Petras' performance. While Rutgers' raw defensive numbers pop, their opponents can't be overlooked as a factor. While Iowa sits #4 nationally in defensive SP+, Rutgers remains #38, which is actually 10 spots lower than a Mississippi State defense that just gave up 21 4th quarter points to LSU; 5 spots lower than a Michigan State defense that just got shredded; and 2 spots lower than Arkansas, which just gave up 27 to FCS Missouri State. Rutgers' two FBS opponents (Boston College and Rutgers), actually put up more points against Rutgers than they did against their other FBS opponent. And while Iowa's offense appears to be getting healthy, and trending in the right direction, Rutgers' offense is doing the opposite. They failed to score an offensive touchdown in beating Temple 16-14, with three field goals and a defensive touchdown. I questioned last week whether Schiano would eventually go from Gavin Wimsatt to Evan Simon at quarterback, but that he appeared to prefer Wimsatt's ceiling. Well, Simon got more of the playing time Saturday, and 9-15 for 52 yards doesn't really signal that it was because he was doing anything to win it. In fact, it was his worst game. The play design has to help him. Aron Cruickshank caught 5 passes...for 18 yards. For an athlete with that talent and burst, that's almost impossible to design. This one's in Piscataway, but that hasn't seemed to help Rutgers lately, who hasn't won a Big Ten home game in 5 years.

IOWA 20, RUTGERS 13

Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

7:30 - Columbus, OH - ABC

It feels like Wisconsin has played this series a lot closer than the actual records recently. But Ohio State has won 8 straight, including 3 Big Ten Championship Games, and 11 of 12 going back to 2004, which was Wisconsin's last win in the Shoe. But perhaps it's because while Michigan State and Purdue have knocked Brutus off a couple times in there, they largely get blown out. Wisconsin has a number of one score losses in there. The questions about just how good the 2022 version of the Buckeyes offense really is have slowly subsided week by week. Putting up 77 points last week, still playing with a only a shell of their two best offensive weapons, should totally bury that. All Ohio State did was 100+ yard day, career games, out of three underclassmen, in running back Dallan Hayden, and receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jayden Ballard. The defense continues to be stout against the run, however, the deep ball in the passing game, which was problematic against Notre Dame, reared it's head again. The Rockets were able to score on a pair of 40+ passing plays. Wisconsin got their downfield passing game going last week, with all 8 Badgers who caught a ball, having an 11+ yard reception, five of them 20+, and three 40+. Mix in the balance run attack, where four different backs ran for over 5.7 ypc on 5+ carries, and maybe Bucky is finding a little bit of their explosion. Also, New Mexico State might be the worst team in the FBS. Granted, Washington State may not be fielding a typical Washington State defense. The Cougars held (an admittedly bad) Colorado State to 7 points this week, and are up to #22 in defensive SP+. Jim Leonard's defense does better than anyone against the Ryan Day offense, but I don't think this is the Buckeye defense that you could pound away on like last year. You have to get the ball on the outside, and force their corners to play one on one down the field. If Graham Mertz was ever going to show that, now would be the time. I think this turns into far more of a defensive slugfest though, with the Buckeyes ultimately having too many weapons.

OHIO STATE 30, WISCONSIN 7

Florida Atlantic Owls (2-2) at Purdue Boilermakers (0-1, 1-2)

7:30 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

When Purdue scheduled this game, Florida Atlantic was about to start an 11-3 season, and Lane Kiffin was the coach. Three years late, it's a less attractive non-conference test. The Owls are 2-2, but the wins are over an FCS team, and a bottom 10 FBS team in Charlotte. Even the losses are to another bottom 10 team in Ohio (their only win), and a blowout loss to Central Florida. Whatever momentum Kiffin got going there, Willie Taggert, who probably wishes he had just stayed at Oregon, seems to have killed. This needs to be a clean up game for Purdue, after a 1-2 start, thanks to a pair of late game losses, including another self inflicted one, due to a total lack of discipline. October sees the Boilermakers play 3 of 4 games on the road, including trips to West division co-favorites, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Not that Purdue should ever be in danger here, but if they want to keep hopes alive of winning the division, it would certainly not be ideal for the confidence to let Florida Atlantic hang around here. Purdue still cannot run the ball, and seems content to not even try to. They are passing the ball 72% of the time, 2nd in the nation. This week, that should be just fine, against an Owls defense that is giving up over 300 yards per game through the air. They would like to see Broc Thompson, who was in contention to be WR1 in fall camp, get a game of healthy run in before going to Minneapolis next weekend. Thompson had 3 receptions for 28 yards in the opener, before leaving injured, and hasn't played since. Brohm said he will be a game time decision on Saturday, and, again, while they don't NEED him, you'd rather see him get 3 quarters of run in against Florida Atlantic's secondary, before Minnesota's. Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry is a former 4* recruit, who was the starter at Miami, so he should test the Boilermakers. But honestly, after Sean Clifford and Garrett Shrader, he may yet only be the third best quarterback Purdue has faced to date.

PURDUE 40, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 17

Miami(Ohio) RedHawks (1-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-2)

7:30 - Evanston, IL - BTN

Anyone remember why 1995 Northwestern was not in the national title discussion going into the 1996 Rose Bowl? Northwestern upset #9 Notre Dame in South Bend in the opener. They also went undefeated in Big Ten play, including a road win at #7 Michigan, and home wins over #12 Penn State and #24 Wisconsin. It's because after beating Notre Dame, and then a Week 2 bye, Northwestern opened at home against a Miami (then) Redskins team, and lost 30-28. That was not a bad Miami team, going 8-1-1 after a season opening loss to Ball State, with the lone loss being at Michigan, and a tie against otherwise undefeated, MAC champ, Toledo. It was coached by Randy Walker, who would go on to be Northwestern's coach, and, coincidentally (not ironically), lost to Miami in his first game as Northwestern's coach in 1999, because time is a flat circle. Northwestern has won the last two games in this series, which actually only closed Miami's series lead to 6-3. The Red(skins)Hawks claimed wins over Northwestern in the 50s, 60s, 80s, 90s, and 00s. None of that matters, but it's more fun than actually discussing this game, between two lousy teams, which is in prime time for no reason. Northwestern's loss to Southern Illinois this past weekend only proved that as bad as Nebraska is, that Northwestern's win over the Huskers was still a fluke. If Northwestern continues down this trajectory, could Pat Fitzgerald's job actually be in trouble? His lowest two year win total is 10, which he did twice (06-07 and 13-14). After a 3-9 season last year, he would need a 7-5 season just to match it. And really it's three bad "real" seasons in a row, counting 2019, and not so much counting the fake COVID year. After this weekend, I'm not sure there's another game they will be favored in. Maybe at home against Illinois in the finale? But that's looking through the lens of today, not as an (presumably, at best) 2-9 Northwestern team that actually comes into that game. The Wildcats are favored by 7.5 here. I think that's WAY too high. This looks like a coin flip to me. I'll say the home Big Ten team can at least beat the bad MAC team at home.

NORTHWESTERN 28, MIAMI(OHIO 27

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

Maryland Terrapins (3-0) at #4 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX

Good September Maryland is tired at this point, we know they are going to collapse once the clock strikes October. Problem is, it's still September. Michigan's defense lost a lot from last year, and literally faced 3 of the 10 worst teams in the FBS according to SP+. All that means is that we don't KNOW anything. But we can THINK anything we want, and I think Michigan's defense will be fine. It might be their worst defense in the past few years, but I think this will be their best offense, maybe ever. Donovan Edwards, who I've said before is a cheat code, is a massive loss. I think he's the most talented offensive weapon in the Big Ten, but against the defense, I don't think I care. I think Michigan would have to be down 14-0 for Jim Harbaugh to even consider going back to McNamera, but with him hurt, there is nobody looking over McCarthy's shoulder. Might he throw a pair of dumb interceptions? Sure. Might he also throw for 350 yards? Absolutely. Two turnovers, Michigan should be fine. Once you start getting to -3 or greater, well now we've got a game. Maryland is excelling at dominating the takeaway game. The Terps are also giving the ball away, but they are playing loose on defense. That will likely mean a couple of giveaways for J.J. McCarthy in his first meaningful start, but it will also mean a couple of chances to exploit. Mike Locksley has switched to a more balanced approach this year, which means if this is still a game in the second quarter, the Terps are more comfortable playing it out. Maryland is averaging nearly 8 fewer pass attempts this year. I think Michigan jumps out quickly. I don't see how Maryland stops them. That puts Maryland back into a pass first offense, and while they have the receivers to win that battle, I don't see them having the defense to come from behind in Ann Arbor.

MICHIGAN 41, MARYLAND 22

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** September 21, 2022, 08:24:13 AM »

Afternoon games in

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 23, 2022, 11:22:26 AM »

Everything but (my controversial choice as) Game of the Week are in

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 23, 2022, 12:07:19 PM »

This weekend's games by Power Ranking:

#1 tOSU vs #8 UW
#2 M vs #7 UMD
#3 PSU, OOC
#4 MSU vs #5 MN
#6 PU, OOC
#9 RU vs #10 Iowa
#11 IL, OOC
#12 IU, OOC
#13 NU, OOC
#14 UNL, much needed break

Really, any of the four league games would be reasonable options for GOTW.

FearlessF · « **Reply #4 on:** September 23, 2022, 12:09:38 PM »

#4 MSU vs #5 MN

Just My opinion

Abba · « **Reply #5 on:** September 23, 2022, 12:32:54 PM »

I did a little research on Northwestern before picking them in the Eliminator Pool. They lost the turnover battle 4-1 to the Salukis, while Miami U won the turnover battle against UC 3-1. This allowed the Redhawks to hang around for a half, but in the end only gained 183 yards. As long as Northwestern doesn't have another disaster in the turnover battle, I would expect them to win somewhat comfortably this week, so I do like the 7 point spread. Cats take it 27-14.

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** September 23, 2022, 04:06:36 PM »

Everything in

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Topic: ELA September 24 Breakdown

ELA

ELA September 24 Breakdown

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