header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Stirring the Pot

 (Read 35750 times)

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18847
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #112 on: September 28, 2018, 09:42:27 AM »
Even if the OOC games beginning the season are cut out,playing more heavy weights at the end will increase risk of injury IMO.Just look at Jake Butt 2 years ago
Butt just tore his left knee.  Don't know if it's the same one, but that sucks.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #113 on: September 28, 2018, 10:29:23 AM »
Getting "snubbed" didn't help the PAC bowl record.
In most cases it should help but you have to be at least decent for it to matter and the Pac just wasn't.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #114 on: September 28, 2018, 10:35:43 AM »
I haven't been paying much attention, but when's the last time we had 4 undefeated teams from P5 conferences + Notre Dame, left at the end of the season?
When's the last time we had 3?
2?
Of course, I would absolutely LOVE to see it happen, that we had 5 undefeated teams at the end of the year.  I might even watch the CFP if that happened!
It has been a LONG time since we had more than three.  The last time we had three was the year that Auburn got left out.  
In the CFP era:
  • 2017: none
  • 2016:  one, Bama
  • 2015:  one, Clemson
  • 2014:  one, FSU
In the CFP era we have had a grand combined total of three and those three went 2-3 in playoff games with no National Championships.  

In the BCS era we had two a few times but the only time we had more than two was when USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all finished undefeated in 2004.  

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #115 on: September 28, 2018, 11:12:09 AM »
Butt just tore his left knee.  Don't know if it's the same one, but that sucks.
Just saw that. Guh.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71547
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #116 on: September 28, 2018, 12:24:24 PM »
If you run the odds of winning each game out to 13 games, it's statistically improbable to win all 13 even if you are very very good.

And, we see 1 or 2 P5 teams a year achieve that.


medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #117 on: September 28, 2018, 12:32:06 PM »
If you run the odds of winning each game out to 13 games, it's statistically improbable to win all 13 even if you are very very good.

And, we see 1 or 2 P5 teams a year achieve that.
And that makes the odds of five teams doing it in the same year almost infinitesimally small.  I would posit that the chances of an undefeated P5 Champion being left out of the current system are less than 1% in a decade.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #118 on: September 28, 2018, 04:10:13 PM »
I haven't been paying much attention, but when's the last time we had 4 undefeated teams from P5 conferences + Notre Dame, left at the end of the season?
When's the last time we had 3?
2?
Of course, I would absolutely LOVE to see it happen, that we had 5 undefeated teams at the end of the year.  I might even watch the CFP if that happened!
1979 might be it.  The top four were all undefeated but #4 FSU was not in a conference yet.  The entire top-10 was 10-1 or better.  1979 pre-bowl AP top-10 and what they did post-season and where they ended up:
  • 11-0 Ohio State, lost 17-16 to #3 USC in the Rose Bowl, finished #4
  • 11-0 Bama, won 24-9 over #6 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, finished #1
  • 10-0-1 USC*, won 17-16 over #1 tOSU in the Rose Bowl, finished #2
  • 11-0 Florida State, lost 24-7 to #5 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, finished #6
  • 10-1 Oklahoma, won 24-7 over #4 FSU in the Orange Bowl, finished #3
  • 10-1 Arkansas, lost 24-9 to #2 Bama in the Sugar Bowl, finished #8
  • 10-1 Nebraska, lost 17-14 to #8 Houston in the Cotton Bowl, finished #9
  • 10-1 Houston, won 17-14 over #7 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl, finished #5
  • 11-0 BYU, lost 38-37 to nr Indiana in the Holiday Bowl, finished #13
  • 10-1 Pitt, won 16-10 over nr Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl, finished #7

* FWIW, USC's tie was just one of those "WTF" games.  They tied Stanford at home.  Stanford finished 5-5-1.  

The other final top-10 team was Purdue.  Purdue missed Ohio State that year.  They only lost one BigTen game (Minnesota which finished 4-6-1) and also lost OOC to UCLA which finished 5-6.  The Boilermakers did beat Michigan (8-4) and Indiana (8-4) in conference and they beat the Irish (7-4) OOC.  They were #12 heading into the bowls and beat Tennessee in the Bluebonnet Bowl.  

There were four "undefeated" teams but USC did have a tie.  

The top-3 were extraordinarily close in the pre-bowl poll.  Ohio State led Bama by just 1.5 points with USC just 7.5 points behind Bama.  Bama actually had the most votes for #1 followed by USC, followed by tOSU but Ohio State must have been a lot stronger at #2.  I always thought it was fun watching more than one bowl to figure out the National Championship:
  • Ohio State needed to beat #3 USC but they also needed #3 Bama to either lose or at least not win much more impressively over #6 Arkansas.  
  • Bama needed to beat #6 Arkansas but they also needed some help because they needed their win to be at least as impressive and possibly more impressive than the Rose Bowl winner's win.  
  • USC needed to beat #1 Ohio State and they also needed that win to be enough to keep them ahead of #2 Bama and #4 FSU.  
  • Florida State was a longshot but if they had won impressively enough there would have been a chance especially if #1 and #2 both lost.  
  • Oklahoma was an extreme longshot but if they had won impressively enough it might have leapforgged them over 10-0-1 USC provided that tOSU and Bama both lost.  
  • Arkansas was an extreme longshot but if they had won impressively enough they might have been able to leapfrog USC and Oklahoma.  They would have needed tOSU and FSU to lose.  

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17672
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #119 on: September 28, 2018, 11:13:37 PM »
Thanks medina, that was a heck of a lot more detailed than I expected, appreciate the fine points.

Clearly as CD pointed out, the odds are very much against it.  Multiply the odds of even one team doing, it across multiple teams, and the actual results demonstrate the validity of the mathematics.

Ultimately, it's super-duper-crazy unlikely that we'd have 5 or 4 undefeated teams.  But it sure would be fun if it happened.


847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25215
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #120 on: September 29, 2018, 07:16:02 AM »
Scholarship limits have something to do with it too, I believe. In 1979 there weren't any and some schools stockpiled.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71547
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #121 on: September 29, 2018, 09:15:12 AM »
https://www.aseaofblue.com/2013/6/11/4409982/ncaa-football-a-brief-history-of-ncaa-football-scholarships

"1973 brought about the first limitations on football scholarships in order to free up money for women's sports after Title IX was passed by Congress in 1972 as part of the Equal Opportunity in Education Act. This caused the NCAA schools' presidents and athletic directors to push through a limit of 105 football scholarships. Additional reductions were made in 1978 (95) and again in 1992 which brought the limit to its present number of 85 and 63 for Division I-AA."

Close enough.


Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71547
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #122 on: September 29, 2018, 09:19:35 AM »
The typical "top ten" P5 team may have four "real games" that are contested, four "pastry games" that are certain wins, and four games they could lose if things go wrong for them.  Sometimes it's 3/5/4, but whatever.

A very very good team may have a 75% chance of winning the 4 contested games, but even so, the odds of winning them all are not good.  Then they might have a 90% chance of winning the 4 possible loss games on top of that.  Those games are like Clemson at Syracuse last year.

It's just not likely, even for an Alabama.  Now, if you have 10 teams in that category, it starts to be likely for 1-2 of them, which is what we routinely see in practice.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25215
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #123 on: September 29, 2018, 09:22:00 AM »
I didn't know about the 1973 limit to 105. I thought that move actually came in 1979. Thanks for the correction, but the point stands. I'd have to believe rosters were at 95 in 1979 because they couldn't just cut kids from rosters to get to that number, unless it was decided prior to that year??



Always thought 1987 is when the move 85 came. Maybe that's when it was decided, and then fully implemented 5 years later. That would make sense.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71547
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #124 on: September 30, 2018, 11:04:59 AM »
I am musing about the state of football in the states of Nebraska and Tennessee.  I have to think without looking up recruiting rankings that both are not bereft of talent.  One would think their recruiting would get them 7 wins in an average year.

In the Vols' case, it's about where the talent is dispersed, e.g., not in the offensive line.  Maybe they have talent elsewhere, but not there, or at least not scheme or something.  And that is sine qua non in football I think.

And the bad news is that you can sign a star QB or RB or WR right out of HS and get immediate impact.  You simply can't do that with the OL.  You can start one gifted TF, but not five, ever.  So coaches inheriting programs with that issue need 3 years to really start making the team good.  Maybe they get 7 wins in year 2 and 8 in year 3 and that would be a very good effort.  

And maybe not.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25215
  • Liked:
Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #125 on: September 30, 2018, 11:06:43 AM »
The lines are where Nebraska is weakest too.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.