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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6608 on: July 10, 2020, 04:22:01 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” he believes as many as 1 in 150 people in the U.S. are infected with the coronavirus. 

“We must have well over 700,000 infections a day, even though we’re only diagnosing about 60,000,” said Gottlieb, who added that when the U.S. had about 20,000 new diagnosed infections per day, about 1 in 200 people were actually believed to be infected. “Now, it must be higher than that.” 

I'm not sure I buy this, but I suppose it's possible.  One in a hundred would mean nearly 3.3 million infections.  If we are nearing a million new infections per day, a lot of them must be very mild.  This would mean about 20 million a month.  And climbing.

My step grandkids had school for two weeks and now are out on break (schedule) until September.  I'm not sure what that two weeks would accomplish.  Their educational system is much more centralized than is ours.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6609 on: July 10, 2020, 04:25:07 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:14:53 PM
Does anyone here doubt that 100,000 to 200,000 Americans COULD die of COVID?:

I don't see how that statement can be doubted.

He speaks like  scientist, and the media manage to mangle what he clearly says in my view.
Not at all. I have a lot of respect for him, but when he predicted millions early on I raised my eyebrows a bit.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6610 on: July 10, 2020, 04:26:08 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:56:52 PM
I thought he estimated in the millions.


https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that



In there, he did. So we get conflicting information everywhere. It's what happens when we know nothing.
I read that link and see him specifically saying millions won't die
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6611 on: July 10, 2020, 04:30:06 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Not at all. I have a lot of respect for him, but when he predicted millions early on I raised my eyebrows a bit.
He never predicted that.  He discounted that as a likelihood.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6612 on: July 10, 2020, 04:30:57 PM »
The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. 
Fauci responded that a model is “only as good as the assumptions you put into a model.”
“The worst-case scenario is either you do nothing or your mitigation and containments don't succeed,” he said “So although that's possible, it is unlikely if we do the kinds of things that we're essentially outlining right now.”


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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6613 on: July 10, 2020, 04:31:44 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:22:01 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” he believes as many as 1 in 150 people in the U.S. are infected with the coronavirus.

“We must have well over 700,000 infections a day, even though we’re only diagnosing about 60,000,” said Gottlieb, who added that when the U.S. had about 20,000 new diagnosed infections per day, about 1 in 200 people were actually believed to be infected. “Now, it must be higher than that.”

I'm not sure I buy this, but I suppose it's possible.  One in a hundred would mean nearly 3.3 million infections.  If we are nearing a million new infections per day, a lot of them must be very mild.  This would mean about 20 million a month.  And climbing.

My step grandkids had school for two weeks and now are out on break (schedule) until September.  I'm not sure what that two weeks would accomplish.  Their educational system is much more centralized than is ours.
the math doesnt work here

if 1 out of every 150 people were infected that would be 2.3M people but if we are having over 700,000 people get infected every day thats only 3 or 4 days worth so Im not seeing the 700,000 a day stuff
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6614 on: July 10, 2020, 04:35:10 PM »
The initial pandemic models are hypotheticals, the folks who study these things run various scenarios with their models in theory all the time.  When something hits, they TRY and match the best model they have in terms of what is thought to be known about the new disease.

They presume no inherent immunity to the new disease for the population.

Then they use what limited information is available to estimate how contagious it may be.  This one is dicey.

Then they use the same to try and estimate mortality figures.

From there, it's a pretty simple model.  The models presume nothing can be done to combat it, no mitigation, no isolation, no face masks, no nothing, at least initially.  This spits out what COULD happen, emphasis on COULD, worst case scenario, with a wide range in the estimate, as we have seen.

The big problem with COVID is that latency period wherein a person can be contagious and not know it for 2-3-4-5-6 days.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6615 on: July 10, 2020, 04:36:25 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 04:31:44 PM
the math doesnt work here

if 1 out of every 150 people were infected that would be 2.3M people but if we are having over 700,000 people get infected every day thats only 3 or 4 days worth so Im not seeing the 700,000 a day stuff
It only works if you start at a very low base and presume a very steep sudden rise, which is not really what is happening.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6616 on: July 10, 2020, 04:46:32 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:46:46 PM
See my post above. Hard to be consistent when you have no idea what's going on.

Dr. Fauci predicted 2 Million deaths in the USA, right? Even experts can be wrong. Except me, of course. I'm an engineer and we are not wrong.
No, it really isn't.

Not in the way you think, though.

Consistent message:  This is much more serious than the flu.  This could be very bad.

Consistent message:  This is serious, the lockdown is serious, be a patriot and stay home.

Consistent message:  We've determined that masks may do a lot of good.  Please wear a mask whenever you leave the house.  (Trump/Pence, etc. wearing masks to model the new guidelines)

Consistent message:  If we do a good job social distancing, we can open up.  

I bet I could look at Trump's tweets just today and find something not in line with the messages above.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6617 on: July 10, 2020, 05:04:43 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:56:52 PM
I thought he estimated in the millions.


https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that



In there, he did. So we get conflicting information everywhere. It's what happens when we know nothing.
He said in the millions were possible if we do nothing or if the things we do just don't work. He said millions is "unlikely" if we do those things.

It turns out we did something. We did a LOT of something. Most of the country was bitching about the something we did.

Now we're going to call him wrong like he predicted millions of deaths that haven't happened, when we did the very things he told us would keep the possibility of millions of deaths from happening? 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6618 on: July 10, 2020, 06:05:11 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Not at all. I have a lot of respect for him, but when he predicted millions early on I raised my eyebrows a bit.
Give it time. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6619 on: July 10, 2020, 06:05:59 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
He said in the millions were possible if we do nothing or if the things we do just don't work. He said millions is "unlikely" if we do those things.

It turns out we did something. We did a LOT of something. Most of the country was bitching about the something we did.

Now we're going to call him wrong like he predicted millions of deaths that haven't happened, when we did the very things he told us would keep the possibility of millions of deaths from happening?
I applaud your stick-to-it-ive-ness.  I can't.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6620 on: July 10, 2020, 06:07:07 PM »
Guys, it's not hard to imagine wide swaths of humanity who have it, are asymptomatic, and thus, untested.  It's plain as day.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6621 on: July 10, 2020, 06:17:50 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 06:07:07 PM
Guys, it's not hard to imagine wide swaths of humanity who have it, are asymptomatic, and thus, untested.  It's plain as day.
The testing that has been done to date indicate this isn't the case, depending on what is meant by "wide swaths".

Obviously more people have it, or have had it, than have been tested, but the percentage positives in the testing suggests it is a factor of 3 to perhaps 10 at the high end, probably something like 5x.

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