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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6482 on: July 09, 2020, 12:19:43 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 12:05:04 PM
Looks like Florida joined that elite group today.
The dashboard shows differently, but who knows? Might have been deaths from the weekend that were finally reported today. Every hospital system reports differently.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6483 on: July 09, 2020, 12:25:54 PM »
This article has Unlimited Access. For more coverage, sign up for our daily [color=var(--lc)]coronavirus newsletter[/url]. To support our commitment to public service journalism: [color=var(--lc)]Subscribe Now[/color].[/i][/color]

Florida’s Department of Health on Thursday confirmed 8,935 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the state’s total to 232,718. There were also 120 new deaths announced, raising the statewide toll to 4,009.

The 120 deaths are the most the health department has confirmed within a 24-hour period, although it does not necessarily mean that all of the people died in the past 24 hours.



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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6484 on: July 09, 2020, 12:32:51 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 12:19:43 PM
The dashboard shows differently, but who knows? Might have been deaths from the weekend that were finally reported today. Every hospital system reports differently.
True. As mentioned I use worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/

To be honest I took @Big Beef Tacosupreme 's statement of "seeing 100 deaths per day" more along the lines of seeing that number regularly or the average being above or close to 100/day. Neither TX nor FL are there. 

Even with today's number, FL's 7 day MA will only jump to about 56/day. TX's 7 day MA with yesterdays >100 number is only 57/day. CA, who has been looking terrible the last couple days, and who has had a few >100 days in the past, still hasn't exceeded its 7-day MA peak of 82/day, which they hit twice, once in April and once in May. As of yesterday, it's at 79/day. 

The numbers are going the wrong direction, though. And I don't see evidence it's going to stop. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6485 on: July 09, 2020, 02:07:02 PM »
Well, I've mentioned the time of infection to death can vary greatly - up to two months in some cases.

The first known case in the US was reported on 1/21. The first deaths started to trickle in well after that. so, we'll see. Maybe someday we will have data on how long people were kept alive, before dying.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6486 on: July 09, 2020, 02:10:12 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 02:07:02 PM
Well, I've mentioned the time of infection to death can vary greatly - up to two months in some cases.

The first known case in the US was reported on 1/21. The first deaths started to trickle in well after that. so, we'll see. Maybe someday we will have data on how long people were kept alive, before dying.
the data Ive seen was an average of 18 days but Ive long since forgotten the source
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6487 on: July 09, 2020, 03:03:35 PM »
Wife says one of her doctors (who is clued in b/c she's involved in the Long Beach corona task force) is hearing rumors that CA will go back on lockdown, possible announcement this weekend. 
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6488 on: July 09, 2020, 03:30:12 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 03:03:35 PM
Wife says one of her doctors (who is clued in b/c she's involved in the Long Beach corona task force) is hearing rumors that CA will go back on lockdown, possible announcement this weekend.
the poop will hit the fan if that happens cause I dont think the citizens will accept that well
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Riffraft

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6489 on: July 09, 2020, 03:54:08 PM »
Here are the facts...
➡️ Yesterday, the percent of Arizona's COVID-19 cases that are hospitalized fell AGAIN to 4.90%.
● On June 11, this number was at 11.00%.
➡️ Yesterday, the total mortality rate in Arizona remained at 1.81%.
● On June 1, this number was at 4.43%.
➡️ And Arizona reported a near-record number of daily COVID-19 related discharges - 538.
● Since June 1, Arizona has discharged over 8,500 COVID-19 patients from hospitals.
➡️ Last month, the CDC estimated that the United States may only be identifying 1/10 of positive COVID-19 cases.
● IF that estimation is applied to ARIZONA, the percent of positive COVID-19 cases hospitalized would be .49%;
● and the total mortality rate would be .18%.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6490 on: July 09, 2020, 04:05:48 PM »
Quote from: Riffraft on July 09, 2020, 03:54:08 PM
Here are the facts...
➡️ Yesterday, the percent of Arizona's COVID-19 cases that are hospitalized fell AGAIN to 4.90%.
● On June 11, this number was at 11.00%.
➡️ Yesterday, the total mortality rate in Arizona remained at 1.81%.
● On June 1, this number was at 4.43%.
➡️ And Arizona reported a near-record number of daily COVID-19 related discharges - 538.
● Since June 1, Arizona has discharged over 8,500 COVID-19 patients from hospitals.
➡️ Last month, the CDC estimated that the United States may only be identifying 1/10 of positive COVID-19 cases.
● IF that estimation is applied to ARIZONA, the percent of positive COVID-19 cases hospitalized would be .49%;
● and the total mortality rate would be .18%.

@riffraft

Dude, as a data guy, there's only one good way to rustle my jimmies.  Distorting of data.

Everything you've posted here is so full of bulljive I can barely take it.

First, we are doing far more testing these days.  More testing means more infected people are being identified.  That pretty much negates point one and two.  I don't care to explain, you can think about it.

Second, more people are being discharged because MORE PEOPLE ARE GOING INTO THE HOSPITAL.  Good god man.  That's point 3.

Third, that is NOT what the CDC said.  You are taking things out of context.  The CDC said that early infections could have been as much as 10 times higher than they are now.  That isn't a surprise, given the test shortage at the time.  Taking something from March and applying it to July is ridiculous.  

Finally, if you really think the mortality rate is 0.18%, then you have lost your mind.  There is literally no credible evidence to back that up.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6491 on: July 09, 2020, 04:07:18 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 12:32:51 PM
True. As mentioned I use worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/

To be honest I took @Big Beef Tacosupreme 's statement of "seeing 100 deaths per day" more along the lines of seeing that number regularly or the average being above or close to 100/day. Neither TX nor FL are there.

Even with today's number, FL's 7 day MA will only jump to about 56/day. TX's 7 day MA with yesterdays >100 number is only 57/day. CA, who has been looking terrible the last couple days, and who has had a few >100 days in the past, still hasn't exceeded its 7-day MA peak of 82/day, which they hit twice, once in April and once in May. As of yesterday, it's at 79/day.

The numbers are going the wrong direction, though. And I don't see evidence it's going to stop.
TX and AZ aren't there yet.  I said last week they would be there by 7/20 if the virus continues to grow at its current rate.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6492 on: July 09, 2020, 04:13:09 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
the poop will hit the fan if that happens cause I dont think the citizens will accept that well
Well the citizens can blame themselves for being stupid in the first place.  Stupidity breeding stupidity.  The masses are not responsible or smart, taken as a whole.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6493 on: July 09, 2020, 04:15:30 PM »
Quote from: Riffraft on July 09, 2020, 03:54:08 PM
Here are the facts...
➡️ Yesterday, the percent of Arizona's COVID-19 cases that are hospitalized fell AGAIN to 4.90%.
● On June 11, this number was at 11.00%.
➡️ Yesterday, the total mortality rate in Arizona remained at 1.81%.
● On June 1, this number was at 4.43%.
➡️ And Arizona reported a near-record number of daily COVID-19 related discharges - 538.
● Since June 1, Arizona has discharged over 8,500 COVID-19 patients from hospitals.
➡️ Last month, the CDC estimated that the United States may only be identifying 1/10 of positive COVID-19 cases.
● IF that estimation is applied to ARIZONA, the percent of positive COVID-19 cases hospitalized would be .49%;
● and the total mortality rate would be .18%.

Uh... yeah...Arizona is just fabulous.  I feel so confident to go out and touch things and breathe freely.  Brilliant.  You should get a job at ___ ____.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6494 on: July 09, 2020, 04:18:39 PM »
Objectively, the president couldn't be doing worse on this.  His name doesn't matter, nor does either party.  Threatening schools with pulling their funding if they don't ACT RESPONSIBLY is, again, indefensible.  

If shutdowns were best left regional, they why wouldn't school openings be the same?  The hypocrisy knows no bounds.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6495 on: July 09, 2020, 04:21:04 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
Well the citizens can blame themselves for being stupid in the first place.  Stupidity breeding stupidity.  The masses are not responsible or smart, taken as a whole.
that may be but does not alter the fact that the citizens will be very very disappointed
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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.
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