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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3136 on: April 29, 2020, 02:07:50 PM »
Distancing CAN limit the overall death toll.  For one thing, not over whelming hospitals is a good thing for that.  For another, it should reduce R naught significantly.  In a country like France or Italy, when you meet someone you do the kissy kissy thing (or did) if you know them.  Cut that vector and you cut the spread, for all time, if you get to a point where the infection rate is very low.  

The numbers are coming down in Italy.  They are starting to reopen some aspects of life, or loosen the regulations.  

And we do know with good certainty some things about this disease.  It is much tougher on old people than typical influenza.  It spreads easier.  A key unknown is reinfection rate, that one is scary to me.  We have some hopeful news on remdesivir today for treatment, but it isn't a clear cure.  The stock market is up 2-3% today, it's about where it was a year ago.  That is not signaling a long term economic collapse (though obviously it can be wrong).

We may look back and realize it has become a "part of life" (and death).  
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3137 on: April 29, 2020, 02:08:42 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:35:45 PM
Yesterday our township supervisor, in writing, said that "science is BS". 

There has been a long campaign against science for awhile now.  It isn't just the crazy fundamentalists, either.  Regular people have suddenly stopped vaccinating their kids.  Something like 35% of the country doesn't believe in man made climate change.  Baseless fears against GMOs run rampant.  etc. etc. etc.

You can't use facts and logic to change people's mind, either.  Because as evidence mounts against their viewpoint they will turn to conspiracy theories rather than admit they were just wrong.

Someone asked earlier what South Korea did that was so effective?  Culturally, they actually believe experts in the field, prepped appropriately, and then listened to their advice.
I am not a fan of those who ignore science- and you gave some good examples of people that do. But my hope is that anyone who thinks we should be reopening the economy based upon a risk reward equation should not be thought of as a conspiracy theorist at all.  these are people that completely understand the science and think they can trust themselves to execute the things they need to do and that the risk reward equation now points more towards opening things up.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3138 on: April 29, 2020, 02:12:55 PM »
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Because it is one--as you yourself confirm. Flattening the curve while we work out better ways to address this, up to an including finding a cure/vaccine, is effective. Yes, it is about spreading them out--slowing them down--while we find better solutions. Particularly with the evidence that having the disease doesn't prevent reinfection, "ripping off the band-aid" appears to not be a viable solution.
There is no vaccine, and may never be.

Don't hold your breath for an effective vaccine for SARS, MERS, Ebola, or this damn thing.

I'd hate to lose you as a friend here.

Now, treatments look more and more encouraging. But a vaccine? Color me discouraged. In fact, color me discouraged on all of this shit.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3139 on: April 29, 2020, 02:15:50 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 01:42:16 PM
I'm so excited for when it gets locked for good.
I just hope I'm around to do the honors.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3140 on: April 29, 2020, 02:19:48 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4

Six monkeys given a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford are said to be coronavirus-free 28 days after sustained exposure to the virus.

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3141 on: April 29, 2020, 02:30:19 PM »
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Because it is one--as you yourself confirm. Flattening the curve while we work out better ways to address this, up to an including finding a cure/vaccine, is effective. Yes, it is about spreading them out--slowing them down--while we find better solutions. Particularly with the evidence that having the disease doesn't prevent reinfection, "ripping off the band-aid" appears to not be a viable solution.

I don't believe this is the logical conclusion to that problem, at all.

If there is no conferred immunity, then there's no point in our attempting to stop the spread.  Ripping off the band-aid is precisely and exactly what would be warranted.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3142 on: April 29, 2020, 02:32:10 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:19:48 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4

Six monkeys given a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford are said to be coronavirus-free 28 days after sustained exposure to the virus.

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.


Is this article about SARS? MERS? Ebola? There are promising early (late?) signs for those, I heard/read.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3143 on: April 29, 2020, 02:39:10 PM »
The article discusses the various potential COVID-19 vaccine developments.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3144 on: April 29, 2020, 02:49:55 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:54:38 PM
Post bookmarked for future reference.
If I’m wrong I’m not afraid to admit it. I may not like it. I may be in denial for a minute, but I eventually will change my mind if the evidence shows I am wrong. 

with that said, there is no evidence to prove your theory right now. 
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3145 on: April 29, 2020, 02:57:04 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:54:38 PM
Post bookmarked for future reference.
And here's a link for you to read:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident

Regardless, genetic analysis shows the virus began to spread sometime in the fall or winter of 2019, says Robert Garry, a microbiologist at Tulane University. Those same analyses refuted an earlier theory that the virus was genetically engineered in a laboratory. Garry says the reason is simple — the virus infects people in a way that scientists had never seen before: "The virus is just really too good at what it's doing," he says. "No human using a computer could do this. This is very clearly a natural process that occurred." In addition, he says, there are no signs of human genetic modification in the virus's code.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3146 on: April 29, 2020, 02:59:55 PM »
As I noted, it is very POSSIBLE this is a naturally occurring virus being studied at that lab and got out by accident.  It was not bioengineered, almost certainly.

That doesn't mean it didn't originate in that lab.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3147 on: April 29, 2020, 03:14:34 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 02:49:55 PM
If I’m wrong I’m not afraid to admit it. I may not like it. I may be in denial for a minute, but I eventually will change my mind if the evidence shows I am wrong.

with that said, there is no evidence to prove your theory right now.
Except, China.
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SFBadger96

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3148 on: April 29, 2020, 03:16:32 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 02:12:55 PM
I'd hate to lose you as a friend here.

Exceptionally unlikely.

I'm not saying there will be a vaccine (though of course hope springs eternal), but flattening the curve allows time to try (and to learn other ways to limit the damage).

Those who are advocating keeping the stay-at-home orders in place for now aren't opposed to re-opening the economy/society; they are cautious and want to do so in the best way possible. In California, where policy makers have taken an earlier and more aggressive approach to shutting down, they have always--and continue to--talked about how to reopen as soon as safely possible. SFIrish is privy to these conversations (she's not a decision maker in them) and they are robust and meaningful. They want to reopen, but they want to do so in the best way possible. It's a false dichotomy to talk about people who want to keep stay-at-home versus those who want to reopen.

Unfortunately, a large portion of the largest re-openers have also been the same ones calling the virus a hoax and suggesting it was blown way out of proportion, which the death numbers show plainly wasn't the case. No, not everyone seeking large-scale reopening is a conspiracy theorist (and I know many of the people here are deep and smart independent thinkers), but a great deal of the information spread in favor of removing the restrictions originates with the conspiracy crowd.

The suggestion that the epidemiology crowd is using the pandemic primarily as a profit center is conspiratorial, to put it mildly. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3149 on: April 29, 2020, 03:19:20 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 01:22:03 PM
No. I specifically don’t think world leaders want that.  That’s why I specifically refer only to this country.

But that's the point. You're arguing that THIS country should open up, based on I presume the assumption that this virus isn't as bad as claimed and that it's being overhyped by those in charge here [and the media] in order to force the economy to remain closed. I presume there is a belief amongst some that this is being done to damage POTUS' reelection chances?

Yet what I'm saying is that nearly universally across the globe, governments have instituted these policies at great economic cost to themselves. And that the most logical explanation for this is that the stay-at-home orders are actually warranted by their sincere study of the evidence. Because if the evidence was that this virus is not dangerous, I think several countries would be trying to take advantage of those who overreacted.

The fact that basically none have done so, only Sweden (and even then they're doing a lot more than they're mandating), suggests that a lockdown isn't based upon partisan politics and/or financial incentives from medicare.


Quote
as far as financial motivation- I am merely pointing out the obvious- and agreeing with what many here have said- it is very challenging to trust the data. $13000 reimbursement to a hospital is not the same as a COVID use of a ventilator which pays $39000.  

as for those making more on unemployment- I simply point that out because it is a reasonable assumption they are not the ones protesting.  which means those protesting are likely in grave danger financially- and do not deserve to be treated with such arrogance and disdain by the media, and talking heads- as if their point of view is outrageous.  Their point of view- which seems to be that the restrictions are too severe in some locations and/or they need to unwind them faster- is very reasonable. 
Agreed. Those who are poorest and are getting an extra $2400/mo in unemployment aren't likely to be protesting.

But again, media portrayal of the protestors aside, a lockdown in the face of a global pandemic is either prudent public policy or it's not. There's no point to get into the debate of what "the media" says when we on this forum can discuss the actual evidence justifying or not justifying a lockdown. 
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