Note: Sorry for missing last week and a somewhat abbreviated one this week (and really sorry I forgot the elimination pickem while gone). I was out of town and then things too crazy coming back. Hopefully I have more time for this the rest of the season. I am combining this week and last.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 2:
Southern Methodist
Northwestern
Michigan
South Florida
Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee
Boise State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Baylor
Utah State
North Carolina State
Arkansas
Tulane
Kansas
Iowa
Georgia Tech
Appalachian State
Cincinnati
Auburn
Kentucky
Maryland
Eastern Michigan
UTSA
Marshall
Central Michigan
Wake Forest
Air Force
Tulsa
UAB
Sam Houston
Colorado
Texas Tech
New Mexico State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Teams with 1st Loss Week 3:
Texas State
Arizona
Wisconsin
Boston College
Oregon State
Ball State
South Carolina
Arkansas State
Purdue
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
Washington
East Carolina
Vanderbilt
UCLA
Texas Christian
Virginia
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 10
-I am still assuming no more than one undefeated per conference until we get deeper in season even if there are technically ways to get more.
-In the last two weeks, Notre Dame losing took away our last independent possibility for undefeated teams. We still can have the 9 conference champs and Washington State finish undefeated.
Week 2 and 3 Thoughts:
-It's good to know in the age of all kinds of money coming into college football that college football is still...well college football. A top 10 Florida State is somehow 0-3, Kentucky could have well beat Georgia, and no one really looks for sure completely dominant just yet.
-Texas is #1 and Georgia is #2. It still feels odd to think of a currently undefeated Alabama playing a spoiler kind of role in the SEC.
-Keep an eye on Washington State. They beat both the teams they play who are currently in the power 4 conferences. They have some tough games ahead, but I think would be fine for the playoff if they win out.
-Notre Dame had two different looking weeks. They are still in a good spot to make the playoff, but much of their margin for error is now gone.
-I am assuming an undefeated Group of 5 champ has a head start over someone with a loss (although some undefeateds could potentially be beaten out). In the race for the Group of 5 spot, any team in contention wants to root hard against the renaming undefeated teams in other conferences.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-If I counted right, we have 8 games between undefeated teams this week.
-Illinois vs. Nebraska (Friday): Two undefeated teams who have looked better than in past seasons. Winner will enter October with a lot of momentum.
-San Jose State at Washington State: One of the last two undefeated from the Mountain West vs. a Washington State team that is a dark horse for the CFP. Big for both.
James Madison at North Carolina: Would be big for the Sun Belt if could take this. North Carolina is still undefeated.
USC at 1-loss Michigan: How are the newbies in the Big Ten going to perform vs. the old guard? USC started the season well and a transitioning Michigan is still trying to figure things out. Game will reveal a lot about who might be competitive in the conference.
Memphis at Navy: Two of the last three undefeated teams from the American in this one.
Utah at Oklahoma State: This is a big game in the Big 12. Winner might well be favorite to take the conference and the auto-bye to the quarterfinal bowls.
1-loss East Carolina at Liberty: Liberty is Conference USA's last undefeated team. If they want to take the Group of 5 spot again this year, they might well have to go undefeated.
Tennessee at Oklahoma: New SEC vs. old SEC. How will the conference start for the Sooners?
Kansas State at BYU: Kansas State is ranked and a small favorite here. Those roles could reverse with a BYU win.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 7, American: 3, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 9, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 7, Sun Belt: 4, independents: 0, total: 43
Duke
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Iowa State
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Syracuse
Penn State
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan State
Ohio State
Memphis
Central Florida
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Brigham Young
UNLV
Utah
Arizona State
California
Oregon
Southern California
Washington State
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
San Jose State
Army
Navy
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
James Madison
