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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7980 on: August 09, 2020, 11:52:27 PM »
You know, I'll go back and change that.  I don't know whether you hate your country or not.

I'll make it "always see the worst in my country."  Is that better.
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Hawkinole

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7981 on: August 10, 2020, 12:25:02 AM »
We "broke containment" last night to cook a fancy dinner for my wife's friend who just finished chemo for breast cancer. It was 6 people (three households).


Grilled some filets, had some comfort food sides, set a fancy table, and generally tried to make it especially nice for her.

F'ing nightmare. We were comfined to the kitchen because one of the couples has a 3-year-old and we had to confine the 80-lb puppy to his "jail" in the kitchen, and of course cook. Instead of people actually being *NORMAL* and hanging out in the kitchen, they all just sat around in the living room while we worked our asses off cooking. Everyone was annoying during dinner, and then of course when my wife and I were trying to clean up, nobody offered to help.

But worst was that as we were going through dinner. We got to hear the stories about all the social interactions they've had, including an event the previous night. All the time while we were paranoid that we might give the recovering chemo patient COVID, so we have tried to be extra-careful for the last week. Great to hear that she was out and about the night before.

By the end of the night my wife was like "when can we move to Austin?"...

Sounds like a legitimate reason to celebrate. I attended one of these types of celebrations in June. Different reason for the celebration. The folks at the get-together were all from rural Iowa counties where there were very few cases, except for one attendee, but I think she had been socially isolating. Nevertheless, I actively attempt to avoid gatherings, and this was the only one I have attended since February.
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GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7982 on: August 10, 2020, 11:35:03 AM »
The SPAM Museum in Austin is real and spectacular. And arguably, it's not even the most noteworthy export from the town. John Madden (yes, that one) was born there.

GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7983 on: August 10, 2020, 12:03:05 PM »

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7984 on: August 10, 2020, 01:17:17 PM »
You know, I'll go back and change that.  I don't know whether you hate your country or not.

I'll make it "always see the worst in my country."  Is that better.
You must be bored or something.
I've said mainly 2 things about the U.S. lately:
a - that it's not the best country in the world (gasp)
b - that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost (good lord!)

And you make the leaps you make about it.  Fun.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7985 on: August 10, 2020, 02:08:58 PM »
You must be bored or something.
I've said mainly 2 things about the U.S. lately:
a - that it's not the best country in the world (gasp)
b - that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost (good lord!)

And you make the leaps you make about it.  Fun.
I find it strange that you feel confident enough to say the US is definitely not the best (whatever best means) country on earth but when pressed to name the country that is refuse to do so. 

Secondly, disasters have an economic impact worth discussing.  Discussing it doesn’t mean it’s the all anyone cares about or takes precedent over the human toll. It is also not unique to the United States to discuss the economic impact when something bad happens.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7986 on: August 10, 2020, 04:28:57 PM »
I find it strange that you feel confident enough to say the US is definitely not the best (whatever best means) country on earth but when pressed to name the country that is refuse to do so. 

Secondly, disasters have an economic impact worth discussing.  Discussing it doesn’t mean it’s the all anyone cares about or takes precedent over the human toll. It is also not unique to the United States to discuss the economic impact when something bad happens.
And furthermore he is ignoring the damage that the economic impact it’s having on humans as far as unemployment depression addictions abuse and suicide
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7987 on: August 10, 2020, 05:05:34 PM »
I find it strange that you feel confident enough to say the US is definitely not the best (whatever best means) country on earth but when pressed to name the country that is refuse to do so. 

Secondly, disasters have an economic impact worth discussing.  Discussing it doesn’t mean it’s the all anyone cares about or takes precedent over the human toll. It is also not unique to the United States to discuss the economic impact when something bad happens.
Well as it's an opinion thing, listing countries better than the U.S. would be an opinion of one.  It certainly is an odd claim, and I'm not entirely sure what it means to be the best country, yet we have tens of millions of people who insist it's the case.  Sure, they lack much evidence, but that doesn't seem to limit their vigor.  

Their claim is that the U.S. is the best country and I'm simply unconvinced of that.  Judging by the group who are most ardent about it, I deem it highly unlikely that it is #1.  

I guess my claim is that by the most statistical measures of quality of life and happiness, the U.S. does not average out at the top of the rankings.  That's all.  I could probably get along pretty well in any number of 100 countries that have flushing toilets and non-oppressive regimes.  I probably don't care about many of the things that probably are strengths in measuring the quality of the U.S.  I probably take for granted many strengths of the U.S. and would miss them if they were gone.  

But I also know that academia isn't mistrusted in many other countries.  I know there are countries who are progressing socially, without the nationalist overcorrection we're seeing here.  There are many building up and improving - ours has been on top for at least 80 years and possibly 140 and are showing the signs that it's difficult to be so great for so long.

And I'm possibly wrong.  Duh.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7988 on: August 10, 2020, 07:19:43 PM »
You must be bored or something.
I've said mainly 2 things about the U.S. lately:
a - that it's not the best country in the world (gasp)
b - that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost (good lord!)

And you make the leaps you make about it.  Fun.
There you go with your motte-and-bailey defense again.

You did NOT say "that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost."

You said that EVERYTHING in our country was about money.

If you're going to make statements like that, you need to be prepared to defend them or to admit that you were wrong.

But you try to have it both ways.
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7989 on: August 10, 2020, 07:54:22 PM »
Some improvement here. But deaths are on the rise.

  • The United States confirmed 49,573 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday, with 7 percent of the 711,984 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 522 deaths were attributed to the virus on Sunday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 162,938.
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7990 on: August 10, 2020, 09:31:03 PM »
From Jonathan V. Last at The Bulwark.

1. Models
On Friday we talked about how the much-maligned COVID models have actually been pretty helpful in understanding the spread and death toll from the coronavirus.

Mark Panaggio, a big-brain math guy who works with data for a living, wrote in to put some meat on that bone.

Panaggio pulled the predictions for the big-12 COVID models and ran them against observed results to see how well they did.

He shared some charts from his observations and is generously letting me use them here. So let's take a look.



Okay. So here's what we're looking at. On the x-axis we have the models and the y-axis we have the average percentage errors in their predictions for new deaths. The different color bars show you how well the predictions were four weeks out, three weeks out, two weeks out, and one week out.

What should immediately jump out at you is that 9 of the 12 models had error rates that were really low: mostly < 20 percent. Two of the models—from Johns Hopkins and Columbia—were not nearly as good. The University of Arizona was somewhere in the middle.

Panaggio helpfully put the data in a chart, too, in case you see numbers better that way:




The error rate for some of these models—the IHME, Los Alamos, UMass, U Texas, and Younyang Gu—are mostly in the low teens, which is wildly impressive.

The Ensemble model is like the RealClear Politics polling average: It's the average of a whole bunch of models. And the Ensemble error rates were quite low, too.

So if you were just looking at that, you would have had a very clear picture of how the pandemic would progress.

I don't mean to keep beating up on Richard Epstein, but he's been unrepentantly stupid on this, so I will:

This idiot predicted that total U.S. deaths would be between 500 and 5,000. Which means that his error rate (so far) is between 3,200 percent and 32,000 percent.

There's one other aspect of the models that's worth looking at, which is the success of their confidence intervals. Models give a spread of predicted outcomes. This is called a confidence interval. In general, this spread is constructed by the model believing that 95 percent of the time, the actual result will fall within this range.

How did the models do with their confidence intervals?



Even in the midst of a pandemic with no modern precedent, five of them were bang-on almost 100 percent of the time. (UMass, take a bow.)

Now, the confidence interval tells you something different than the straight prediction. What it's telling you is how confident the model is in itself. The UMass and Los Alamos models were giving themselves wider intervals than, say, U Texas and IHME, which tells you that even though their predictions were almost equivalent in terms of accuracy, the IHME and U Texas models were more aggressive in their certainty.

But again: Look at the Ensemble. If you had been looking at the averages of the various models and taking into account their confidence intervals, you would have had an almost perfect sense of what the next four weeks were going to look like at any point during the pandemic.

Keep all of this in mind the next time someone tries to tell you, "No one could have known" or "The models were all junk" or "Why should we listen to the supposed experts when they couldn't even get their models right."

None of those things are true. This isn't magic. The people who were paying attention to the data had a clear sense of what was happening on the ground.

It was the people paying attention to Twitter or Conservatism Inc. or the president of the United States who had no idea what was coming.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 11:28:55 PM by CWSooner »
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7991 on: August 10, 2020, 09:42:51 PM »
CW your post is not showing any graphs or charts so it is meaningless
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7992 on: August 10, 2020, 11:24:26 PM »
CW your post is not showing any graphs or charts so it is meaningless
320:

I tried posting it about 5 different times, and the charts never showed up for me once I saved the post.  But I thought maybe the problem was on my end.  I'll try again.  Maybe I can insert them into an existing post.

They show up for me now.  Can you see them?
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 11:29:45 PM by CWSooner »
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7993 on: August 11, 2020, 12:45:51 AM »
320:

I tried posting it about 5 different times, and the charts never showed up for me once I saved the post.  But I thought maybe the problem was on my end.  I'll try again.  Maybe I can insert them into an existing post.

They show up for me now.  Can you see them?
yes everything shows up
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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