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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7644 on: August 02, 2020, 03:56:55 PM »
Just typing out loud. I look around and see people out and about, and wonder why we don't have many more cases than we do, given how contagious it is. And I read stuff, like I read this morning, which popped up on my home page (from a CNN article on MSN).


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z


https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf



The Nature article.


I had been speculating here before I read that that many of us must have some latent resistance to this thing.  Otherwise, Sweden would be way under water by now.

The presumption was that this virus was facing zero resistance in humans, something core to the epidemiological models being used.  That can't be a fact, or so it appears.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7645 on: August 02, 2020, 03:59:32 PM »
It is possible some variant of this corona virus has been around for years, undetected.  Maybe "we" felt it was a bad cold (and maybe it was, same class).  Maybe we thought it was flu.  Maybe the symptoms were mild. 

But something went around before this to give many of us a good level of resistance to infection.

It might have been a molder version of this that got out because nobody really noticed they were sick.  I'm speculating.  Maybe it is/was zoonotic and was here last year, or the year before.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7646 on: August 02, 2020, 04:10:37 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html

If this is correct, we could be on the verge of "herd immunity", and opening up would be the correct path, while protecting the most vulnerable still.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7647 on: August 02, 2020, 04:16:56 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html

If this is correct, we could be on the verge of "herd immunity", and opening up would be the correct path, while protecting the most vulnerable still.


I'm really starting to come around to this line of thinking.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7648 on: August 02, 2020, 04:20:37 PM »
I can't come up with another plausible theory for what we're seeing.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7649 on: August 02, 2020, 05:03:44 PM »
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7650 on: August 02, 2020, 05:06:03 PM »
Then it MUST be true, lol.  :-[
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7651 on: August 02, 2020, 05:06:59 PM »
Feel free to pose other hypotheses consistent with what we think we know.

That is how science works.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7652 on: August 02, 2020, 05:07:12 PM »
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


Their economy suffered as much as their neighbors AND more people have died.  SWEDEN IS NOT A GOOD MODEL.  Saying so is irresponsible.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7653 on: August 02, 2020, 05:07:48 PM »
Feel free to pose other hypotheses consistent with what we think we know.
I'll leave the perpetual fallacies to you.  I'm not allergic to saying "I don't know," unlike most people. 
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7654 on: August 02, 2020, 05:07:55 PM »
Their economy suffered as much as their neighbors AND more people have died.  SWEDEN IS NOT A GOOD MODEL.  Saying so is irresponsible.

Have you checked their numbers lately?

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7655 on: August 02, 2020, 05:08:31 PM »
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


I didn't say "I don't know", I said "I dunno", sorry, my bad.

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-which-never-had-lockdown-sees-covid-19-cases-plummet-rest-europe-suffers-spike-1521626

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7656 on: August 02, 2020, 05:16:04 PM »
This was true in October, more than likely.
Makes me wonder.    Last September, I made my annual trek to northern Michigan for golf weekend with 20 or so HS/ sports buds.  It might be the thing I look forward to most all year, sans CFB.  Last year I went in early to spend a couple days with mom. 

So I had been there for five days and out of the blue I started feeling really sick. Very fatigued shortness of breath aches and chills and a little bit of nausea.  I went to an urgent clinic up there and told the doctor I had what felt like the flu and he commented that they hadn’t seen flu since the spring and he sincerely doubted that it was.  But, I have a very unpleasant nose swab which can tell us in about 10 minutes so he did a test. He walks back in and says “ I’ll be damned- you have Flu B- which is even more rare. We’re you on a plane?” 

so I explained that yes- it was a 3 flight trip.  Palm beach- to Atlanta to Detroit to Traverse City.
Is it possible it was around then and it just wasn’t identified?
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7657 on: August 02, 2020, 05:22:52 PM »
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


I did and still think it should be up to states to make their decisions, and further base those decisions on regions within each state. I'm thinking it would be prudent for states to consider the demographics of communities while making decisions.

Places like Illinois had statewide mandates. The people not located in or around Chicago suffered greatly. Did they need to? When Chicago became a hot spot was before the mandate. I suspect it got to be a hot spot in late December or early January, as people returned from travel abroad (and many other passed through ORD on their way elsewhere). I remember photos showing >5000 people lined up, tightly, in the customs area at ORD when travel to Europe was closed and everyone came back immediately. This was when we were told to not wear masks because they did no good.

Then you have Florida, which did a gradual re-opening, earlier than many states. When we first arrived down there, we could not eat inside or outside at any restaurant (not that we were eager to anyway). People gradually let their guard down and started trying to get back to normal. These people generally come from two age groups - the 65 and over and the 39 and under. This is based on what I witnessed while still there, and on what I can gather from the various newspapers around the state.

Since June 1:

Cases are way up (but now trending down) because of the 39 and under crowd going to bars. Deaths are up (looks like a plateau is upon us) because the 65 and over crowd got tired of staying home.

Level of positivity has been trending down for a month now, from 15% at the end of June to 11% at the end of July. That's good.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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